Thursday, December 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly up overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.
Amid a continued lack of other major, markets-moving news in the global marketplace, traders and investors remain fixated on the U.S. and China trade war and the negotiations to end it. December 15 looms as the next inflection point for the trade talks between the world’s two largest economies. Chinese officials said Thursday there will retaliation if the U.S. imposes more tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S. at that time. The marketplace late this week remains mostly upbeat on prospects for a partial trade deal, but if recent history repeats itself the prospects will soon dim.
In other overnight news, the Euro zone reported its third-quarter gross domestic product up 0.2% from the second quarter and up 1.2%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations but still paints a picture of a lukewarm-at-best Euro zone economy. Germany’s manufacturing orders were on Thursday reported down 0.4% in October and down 5.5% annually. Germany is the economic workhorse for the Euro zone.
Traders are awaiting the U.S. economic data point of the week: Friday’s employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payroll number is expected to come in at up around 185,000 jobs. Wednesday’s ADP national employment report for November came in at up just 67,000 jobs, which is a big miss to the downside from market expectations for a rise of 150,000 and has many thinking Friday’s job’s number will be a downside miss, too.
The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. The USDX hit a four-week low Wednesday and the greenback bulls are fading. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $58.50 a barrel. The OPEC oil cartel is meeting today and is expected to continue to keep production quotas in place to try to keep oil prices propped up.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, monthly chain store sales, and manufacturers’ orders and shipments.