Friday, December 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, the truce between Israel and Hamas expired. Israel has resumed military operations in Gaza.
OPEC-plus has agreed to cut another 1 million barrels per day of its collective crude oil production, but Nymex crude oil prices Thursday sold off on the news.
The Euro zone November manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 44.2 versus 43.1 in October. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $76.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.338%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the global manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending and domestic auto industry sales. Fed Chairman Powell is also slated to speak at a college today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,646.50 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,594.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 16,301.00 and then at the contract high of 16,410.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,057.00 and then at 16,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a nine-week high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 24/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at 116 even and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.15.5 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 109.22.0 and then at 109.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.1035 and then at this week’s high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0941 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $73.79. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are just slightly bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have been negated. Seasonal studies are turning friendlier for the grains, now that the U.S. harvest of corn and soybeans has ended.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
