Thursday, March 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Stock market bulls around the globe are regaining confidence. The marketplace is slowly moving beyond the U.S. and European banking troubles. However, it’s too soon for the “all clear” siren regarding the matter. And now attention is turning to the health of major insurance companies. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Threat of a slow-boil bank crisis endures.”
The U.S. data point of the week is Friday’s personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) data that will provide fresh clues on inflation and whether the U.S. economy is headed toward recession. It’s been said the PCE data is a favorite gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $73.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.568%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the third estimate of four-quarter gross domestic product, and corporate profits.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. A fledgling price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high of 4,119.50 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,025.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,980.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 13,082.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,742.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,634.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 130 25/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 129 6/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 114.28.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 115.07.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 114.07.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0873 and then at this week’s low of 1.0797. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $72.19 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace this week and the recent solid rebound in crude oil prices are bullish for the grains. Soybean market bulls have gained the slight chart edge. Corn bulls also have the slight edge and are now working on a price uptrend and have momentum. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight edge and are working on a price uptrend. One of the biggest USDA reports of the year is out on Friday: The prospective plantings report. The USDA quarterly grain stocks report is also out Friday. Look for volatile trading after the USDA reports that are out just before midday Friday.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
