Thursday, May 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.34%.
Another busy day for U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, new residential construction, import and export price indexes, and industrial production and capacity utilization. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,343.25 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 5,266.25 and then at this week’s low of 5,216.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,800.00 and then at 18,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,600.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 18,393.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 118 22/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at 118 even and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at 110.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.16.0 and then at 109.08.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are down just a bit in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0909 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0828 and then at this week’s low of 1.0780. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $79.17 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.70 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices mixed but mostly firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. It appears the speculators are wanting to play the long sides of the grains, including the big “fund” traders.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff