Monday, April 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
It’s a very busy U.S. data week, highlighted by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. No changes in monetary policy are expected, but the FOMC statement and Powell’s presser will be very closely scrutinized by the marketplace. Recent warmer U.S. inflation data has prompted traders and analysts to dial back their timelines on interest rate cuts from the Fed, if they come at all this year. Former Fed official Roger Ferguson said on CNBC today that he expects Powell to sound a hawkish tone this week. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “High rates appear on track to persist long term.” On Friday morning comes the U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,185.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,100.00 and then at 5,070.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 18,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 17,668.25 and then at 17,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 115 5/32 and then at 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at 114 even and then at last week’s low of 112 27/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.00.0 and then at last week’s high of 108.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 107.18.5 and then at 107.10.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage as prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at last week’s low of 1.0648. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $84.46 and then at $85.64. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at last week’s low of $80.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Recent price gains in corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets suggest market bottoms are in place. Wheat prices are trending higher. More gains in beans and corn in the near term would suggest price uptrends can develop.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff