Wednesday, February 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Bitcoin prices have soared this week and are presently trading around $60,000. Barron’s today reported bitcoin’s rise is due to better risk appetite in the marketplace, the big rally in the technology heavy Nasdaq stock index, and notions the Federal Reserve will lower U.S. interest rates later this year.
The U.S. data point of the week is likely going to be Thursday morning’s personal income and outlays report for January, which includes the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation indexes. The PCE price index in January is seen up 2.6%, year-on-year, while the core PCE price index is seen up 2.9% in the same period. Those forecasts are just slightly higher than the readings seen in the December report.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the second estimate of four-quarter gross domestic product, the advance economic indicators report and the DOE liquid energy stocks report.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading but not far below last Friday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,153.50 and then at the contract high of 5,184.25. Support for active traders is seen at 5,100.00 and then at 5,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,276.75 and then at the contract high of 18,382.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,100.00 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 119 23/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 6/32 and then at the February low of 117 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.21.5 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 109.31.5 and then at the February low of 109.25.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0847 and then at last week’s low of 1.0816. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at this week’s low of $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Not much new lately. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff