Thursday, June 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, China’s central bank made another move to ease its monetary policy by cutting another key interest rate. The move follows a batch of downbeat economic data released by China Thursday.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $69.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.82%.
It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic released Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey, retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, Treasury international capital data, and manufacturing and trade inventories.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 10-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,439.50 and then at 4,475.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4,383.50 and then at this week’s low of 4,348.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a downside correction after hitting a 10-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,243.50 and then at 15,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 14,976.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,732.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 127 1/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at the June low of 125 27/32 and then at the May low of 125 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.31.5 and then at 113.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.12.5 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0919 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0855 and then at this week’s low of 1.0792. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $70.49 and then at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.97 and then at this week’s low of $66.80. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat markets are still bearish. Weather in the Corn Belt leans bullish for the grain markets, as it is dry in some regions. We are now in a weather market scare for corn and soybeans. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff