Friday, September 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, China again eased its monetary policy by cutting a short-term lending rate, one day after lowering the reserve requirement ratio for banks. Some slightly better economic data on Friday prompted this Wall Street Journal headline: “China data show signs of fragile economic recovery.”
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker after hitting a six-month high on Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $90.50 a barrel. Prices hit a 10-month high overnight. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.33%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Empire State Manufacturing survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the September high of 4,597.50 and then at 4,625.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,495.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,483.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. Both are above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,719.95 and then at the September high of 15,855.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 15,531.00 and then at the September low of 15,352.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 119 9/32 and then at this week’s high of 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 8/32 and then at the contract low of 117 24/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 109.28.5 and then at this week’s high of 110.07.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 109.03.0 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a six-month low Thursday. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0750 and then at this week’s high of 1.0819. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.0675 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit another 10-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $91.15 and then at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $88.68 and then at this week’s low of $86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is ramping up, and that will be a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crop to the local elevator. Technicals are still overall bearish for corn and wheat, and slightly bullish for soybeans.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff