Wednesday, June 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The marketplace is eagerly awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. The marketplace will be closely watching the testimony for any fresh clues on the timing of any future U.S. interest rate increases, or how long the Fed might pause on raising rates.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.738%.
U.S. economic due for release Wednesday includes the MBA mortgage applications survey, the Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s 10-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,462.00 and then at the June high of 4,485.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at 4,375.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s 10-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,322.50 and then at the June high of 15,475.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,126.50 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 11/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 127 even and then at this week’s low of 126 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.17.0 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.23.0 and then at the June low of 112.12.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the June high of 1.0997 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0943 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $72.38 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $69.76 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were sharply higher overnight. Extended weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are bullish, calling for mostly dry conditions. A failing Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal is also bullish. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff