Wednesday, March 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
On tap today is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking to the U.S. House of Representatives committee on U.S. monetary policy. Traders and investors will closely scrutinize his comments for clues on the future path of U.S. money policy.
In overnight news, China’s January and February imports and exports rose 8.2%, year-on-year, according to China’s commerce minister. Meantime, China’s central bank governor said there is more scope to cut the bank’s reserve requirement ratio, to effectively boost lending. China’s National People’s Congress is meeting this week.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $79.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.166%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, monthly wholesale trade, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the jobs and labor turnover survey (JOLTS), and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and are not far below this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,200.00 and then at the contract high of 5,220.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,124.25 and then at 5,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,400.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,075.00 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 9/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 119 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 119 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.15.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.21.0 and then at last low of 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0884 and then at last week’s low of 1.0844. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at last week’s high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.52 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Still not much new in the grains. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff