Monday, April 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.
Gold prices are sharply lower to start the trading week. Profit taking and weak long liquidation in the futures markets are featured. Perceived easing tensions in the Middle East are a bearish element for safe-haven gold and silver. Broker SP Angel said today in an email dispatch: “Many gold miners will be forward selling into the new high price levels with the influx of new metal into futures markets likely to temper further price rises. The ability of to secure futures prices of $2,373 an ounce will likely bring in substantial tonnages of gold from miners looking to secure profits in the face of inflation.” Gold prices have been driven higher in recent weeks due in part by a marked rise in trading activity on China’s futures exchanges.
In other news China’s central bank left its benchmark lending rates unchanged Monday, in line with market expectations. One-year and five-year prime loan rates were kept at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last Friday’s high of 5,058.00 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,963.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,400.00 and then at 17,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 17,113.25 and then at 17,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 115 even and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at the April low of 113 10/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107.25.5 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the April low of 107.13.5 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0715 and then at 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 1.0628 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $84.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $81.56 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly crop progress reports. Charts are still overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff