Wednesday, April 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, there was a major 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Taiwan that killed at least seven and injured dozens. The temblor was the strongest in a quarter century and may have impacted the region’s semiconductor industry.
Eurozone inflation cooled a bit in March, as its consumer price index was reported up 2.4%, compared to up 2.8% in February, year-on-year. Reads a DowJones Newswires headline: “Eurozone inflation cools, setting the stage for June rate cut.”
U.S. economic reports due for release Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,333.50 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5.235.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 18,345.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,201.50 and then at 18,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 118 26/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 117 5/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 110.03.0 and then at 110.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 109.14.5 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0833 and then at last week’s high of 1.0901. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0758 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a five-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $86.00 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $83.85 and then at this week’s low of $82.60. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. Not much new this week. Charts remain overall bearish for wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff