Tuesday, August 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Traders and investors are looking ahead to the late-week annual Federal Reserve symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This meeting usually produces some market-sensitive news from world central bankers’ comments, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell is scheduled to speak at the confab on Friday.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower, while Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.308%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales index, the Richmond Fed business survey, and existing home sales.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering after hitting a six-week low last Friday. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,467.25 and then at 4,500.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,372.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer on more short covering after hitting a six-week low last Friday. Prices are trending down on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,166.00 and then at 15,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,943.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,720.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 119 10/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 117 18/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.22.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight contract low of 108.28.0 and then at 108.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0944 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0859 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $82.47 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at last week’s low of $78.95. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest leans bullish for corn and especially soybean prices. Scorching temps and slack precip are in the forecast for the Midwest this week. Meantime, it looks like there are better chances for grain to flow out of Ukraine in the coming months. Corn and soybean traders are closely watching the daily results from the annual Pro Farmer crop tour of the Corn Belt that takes place this week.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff