Tuesday, April 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
A headline in the Wall Street Journal today reads: “Fed to signal it has stomach to keep rates higher for longer.” The story was written by reporter Nick Timiraos, who many believe has the inside track on getting top Fed officials to talk with him. He writes: “Firmer-than-anticipated inflation in the first three months of the year has likely postponed rate cuts for the foreseeable future.” Timiraos added the Fed will hold interest rates a level that will “provide meaningful restraint” to U.S. economic activity for longer than the Fed previously anticipated.
On Friday morning comes the U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department.
In overnight news, the Bank of Japan confirmed it intervened significantly in the foreign exchange market Monday to support the yen.
Also, Eurozone inflation held steady in April as the consumer price index was up 2.4%, year-on-year, which is the same as reported in March.
China’s Communist Party Politburo on Tuesday signaled it wants to continue to prop up its economy by cutting interest rates, especially to support its listing property sector.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the employment cost index, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic home indexes, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the consumer confidence index.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,185.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,100.00 and then at 5,070.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 18,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 17,791.25 and then at 17,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 115 5/32 and then at 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 113 30/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 108.08.0 and then at 108.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.18.5 and then at 107.10.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at last week’s low of 1.0648. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $84.46 and then at $85.64. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at last week’s low of $80.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Markets are seeing corrective selling early this week, following recent price gains. Wheat and soybean meal prices are trending higher. More gains in beans and corn in the near term would suggest price uptrends can develop in those markets, too.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff