Tuesday, June 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian stock markets were mixed and European stocks mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. While risk aversion is not keen Tuesday, neither is it robust following the weekend insurrection in Russia and the likely weakened posture of its president, Vladimir Putin. Many veteran Russia watchers now believe Russia is even less stable than before the weekend revolt. With Putin now weaker it makes him even more dangerous.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $68.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.735%.
U.S. economic due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, durable goods orders, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic home price indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, the consumer confidence index and new residential sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last Friday’s high of 4,426.25 and then at last week’s high of 4,462.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,350.00 and then at 4,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 15,152.50 and then at 15,236.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,750.00 and then at 14,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 26/32 and then at the June high of 129 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 22/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 113.16.5 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 113.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 112.21.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the June high of 1.1061 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0933 and then at last week’s low of 1.0891. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $70.15 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.18 and then at the June low of $66.96. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were lower overnight. While weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are still not that wet, it appears the grain markets have now digested and factored into their prices the present dry weather pattern in the Corn Belt, and now the bulls need the dryness pattern to ratchet up a notch, to include more heat, in order to further goose grain prices. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls all still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff