Friday, June 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index in May rose 6.1%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.
The U.S. is pushing to improve U.S.-China relations, as U.S. Secretary of State Blinken is headed to China for talks this weekend.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $70.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.7%.
U.S. economic due for release Friday is light and includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a 10-month high Thursday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,485.50 and then at 4,500.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,450.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a 10-month high Thursday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,441.00 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 15,066.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,732.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 13/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at the 127 even and then at this week’s low of 126 4/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.16.5 and then at this week’s high of 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 113.00.0 and then at 112.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1050 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0950 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $70.96 and then at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.95 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher overnight. The corn and soybean futures markets are in full-blown weather scares. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are mostly dry for the next two weeks. Corn and soybean market bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Wheat markets are still overall bearish but will be pulled higher if corn and soybeans continue to rally. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff