Monday, May 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Traders and investors are awaiting key U.S. inflation data for April out this week—the producer price index on Tuesday and the consumer price index on Wednesday. PPI is seen up 0.3%, month-on-month, compared to a rise of 0.2% in the March report. CPI is seen up 0.4%, compared to the March report showing a rise of 0.4%. The annual CPI April reading is seen up 3.6% compared to up 3.8% in the March report.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.49%.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,300.00 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at 5,225.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 18,348.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,103.75 and then at last week’s low of 17,983.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 7/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 109.03.5 and then at the May high of 109.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 108.19.5 and then at 108.10.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are up a bit in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the May high of 1.0832 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $77.78 and then at the May low of $76.89. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff