Thursday, June 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, Sweden’s central bank raised its main interest rate by 0.25%, to 3.75%.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $69.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.749%.
U.S. economic due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the third estimate of first-quarter GDP, and pending home sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,462.00 and then at the June high of 4,493.75. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,368.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,236.00 and then at the June high of 15,475.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,853.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 128 10/32 and then at this week’s high of 128 26/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 127 12/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.08.5 and then at this week’s high of 113.16.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.24.5 and then at last week’s low of 112.21.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the June high of 1.1061. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0924 and then at last week’s low of 1.0891. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $70.15 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then at the June low of $66.96. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer overnight on corrective bounces from recent strong selling pressure. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned a bit wetter and that’s bearish. The bulls need the dryness pattern to ratchet up a notch, to include more heat, in order to revive grain prices. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls have lost their near-term technical advantage. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Friday there are two of the biggest USDA reports of the year: the planted acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff