Quieter trading early Friday

Friday, July 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes this week hit new highs for the year amid upbeat trader and investor attitudes. There was no major, markets-moving news overnight. 

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $76.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.849%. 

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,609.25 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,528.00 and then at 4,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,850.00 and then at the contract high of 16,062.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,500.00 and then at 15,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 127 even and then at this week’s high of 127 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 125 29/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.16.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.00.0 and then at 111.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1200 and then at Thursday’s high of 1.1261. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1100 and then at 1.1061. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the July high of $77.15 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at this week’s low of $73.78. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower in overnight trading, on corrective pullbacks from this week’s gains. Weather forecasts for the Midwest are turning hotter and drier next week. Russia’s attacks on Ukraine grain facilities and termination of the grain-shipping deal this week are also bullish. Technicals are fully bullish for soybeans, and slightly bullish for corn and wheat futures. Look for soybeans to be the leader of the grain markets for the next several weeks. August is the critical growing month for most of the U.S. soybean crop.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff