Tuesday, February 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace has been quieter early this week, amid a lack of major, fresh fundamental news to drive prices.
The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $77.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.943%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the advance economic indicators report, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic Case-Shiller home indexes, the Chicago ISM business survey, the Richmond Fed business activity survey, and the consumer confidence index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,070.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,984.75 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,394.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 12,058.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 125 20/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 124 14/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.25.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 111.04.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at 1.0750. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0601 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $77.74 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $75.55 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Soybean market bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the overall chart advantage and have momentum on their side, to suggest more selling pressure in those markets in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff