April 20, 2017
Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today’s significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.
*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed up $0.70 at $116.65 today. Prices closed near mid-range and closed and hit another contract high today. The cattle market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at $120.00. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $111.00. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $117.47 and then at $118.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $115.80 and then at $114.85. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.5
May feeder cattle closed down $0.52 at $139.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking after hitting a contract high early on today. The feeder cattle bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, but today’s low-range close begins to hint the bulls might be exhausted. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at $145.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $135.00. First resistance is seen at $141.87 and then at today’s contract high of $143.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $138.47 and then at $137.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0
June lean hogs closed down $1.37 at $68.57 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a six-month low today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $73.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $66.40. First support is seen at $68.00 and then at $67.50. First resistance is seen at $69.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0
*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 4 1/2 cents at $3.57 1/4 today. Prices closed near the session low and closed at a three-week low close today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and are having a very good week. The next downside price objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the March low of $3.54 1/4. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid resistance at the April high of $3.73. First resistance is seen at $3.60 and then at today’s high of $3.63 3/4. First support is seen at $3.57 and then at $3.54 1/4. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0
May soybeans closed down 3 1/2 cents at $9.46 3/4 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bean bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid resistance at $9.80 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $9.29 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $9.55 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $9.62. First support is seen at $9.42 3/4 and then at $9.36 1/2. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0
May soybean meal closed down $2.80 at $308.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $325.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $305.50. First resistance comes in at $310.00 and then at today’s high of $312.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $307.50 and then at $305.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0
May bean oil closed up 27 points at 31.85 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short covering. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 33.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the July 2017 low of 30.46 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 32.02 cents and then at 32.25 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 31.45 cents and then at 31.25 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0
May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 13 1/4 cents at $4.04 3/4 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a contract low today. The wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at $4.10 and then at $4.15. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $4.05 1/4 and then at $4.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.0.
May HRW wheat closed down 14 1/4 cents at $4.02 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a contract low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.25. The bears’ next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at $4.10 and then at $4.15. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $4.02 1/4 and then at $4.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.0
May oats closed up 3 1/2 cents at $2.21 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bears’ next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2.00. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.35. First resistance lies at today’s high of $2.23 and then at $2.25. First support is seen at $2.18 and then at this week’s low of $2.16. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0
*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 9 points at 16.33 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 18.00 cents. Bears’ next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 15.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 16.70 cents and then at this week’s high of 16.93 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 16.17 cents and then at 16.00 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0.
May coffee closed down 545 points at 132.55 cents today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh contract low today. The coffee bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 143.70 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 125.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 135.00 cents and then at 136.20 cents. First support is seen at today’s contract low of 132.55 cents and then at 131.00 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.0
May cocoa closed down $89 at $1,805 a ton today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another contract low today. The cocoa bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,951. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $1,750. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,850 and then at $1,869. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $1,805 and then at $1,785. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.0
May cotton closed up 158 points at 79.25 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a six-week high today. The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage with the recent strong gains. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of 79.46 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 76.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 79.46 cents and then at 80.00 cents. First support is seen at 79.00 cents and then at 78.50 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0.
May orange juice closed down 520 points at $1.6095 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The FCOJ bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at $1.7500. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the contract low of $1.5115. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1.6585 and then at this week’s high of $1.6800. First support is seen at todays’ low of $1.5995 and then at this week’s low of $1.5430. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0.
May lumber futures closed up $1.80 at $389.20 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. While bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, the recent higher volatility at higher price levels is a warning signal of a topping process in the market. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $375.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of $414.60. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $392.10 and then at $395.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $382.20 and then at $380.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5
*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $0.90 an ounce at $1,282.50. Prices closed near mid-range in quieter trading today. Prices are still in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,260.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $1,292.70 and then at this week’s high of $1,297.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,275.40 and then at 1,268.10. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5
May silver futures closed down $0.192 at $17.97 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The silver market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded this week. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $18.655 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the April low of $17.735. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $18.22 and then at $18.435. Next support is seen at today’s low of $17.845 and then at $17.735. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.
May N.Y. copper closed up 75 points at 254.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering after hitting a 3.5-month low on Wednesday. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 270.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 245.60 cents. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 256.35 cents and then at 260.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 249.40 cents and then at 245.60 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0.
*. ENERGIES: May Nymex crude oil closed down $0.05 at $50.39 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage after this week’s losses. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is pushing prices above resistance at the April high of $53.76. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $50.97 and then at $52.00. First support is seen at $50.00 and then at $49.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0
May heating oil closed up 11 points at $1.5824 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $1.6661. Bears’ next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $1.5000. First support lies at this week’s low of $1.5696 and then at $1.5500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1.5942 and then at $1.6316. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0.
May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 69 points at $1.6659 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $1.7650. Bears’ next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $1.5824. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1.6759 and then at $1.7000. First support is seen at $1.6500 and then at $1.6250. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0.
May natural gas closed down 4.5 cents at $3.14 today. Prices closed near the session low on a bearish U.S. storage report issued today. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.45. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $3.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.219 and then at this week’s high of $3.249. First support is seen at this week’s low of $3.114 and then at $3.10. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5.
*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed up 15 points at 1.0765 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a three-week high today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls are having a good week. Euro bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 1.0949. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the March low of 1.0548. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.0806 and then at 1.0850. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0738 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.5
The June Japanese yen closed down 475 points at .91735 today. Prices closed near mid-range on profit taking. Prices Monday hit a five-month high. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at .94000. Bears’ next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .90000. First resistance is seen at today’s high of .92180 and then at this week’s high of .92710. First support is seen at today’s low of .91550 and then at .91000. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0
The June Swiss franc closed up 6 points at 1.0066 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a three-week high. The Swissy bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls are having a good week. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0200. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of .9934. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0093 and then at 1.0100. First support is seen at 1.0043 and then at 1.0020. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0.
The June Australian dollar closed up 35 points at .7524 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .7650. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the April low of .7464. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of .7554 and then at this week’s high of .7602. Next support is seen at this week’s low of .7482 and then at .7464. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5
The June Canadian dollar closed up 8 points at .7427 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another five-week low today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage with the recent steep sell off. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the April high of .7568. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of .7398. First resistance is seen at .7450 and then at Wednesday’s high of .7482. First support is seen at today’s low of .7413 and then at .7398. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0
The June British pound closed up 37 points at 1.2841 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.3000. Bears’ next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.2500. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 1.2881 and then at this week’s high of 1.2929. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2792 and then at 1.2750. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.
The June U.S. dollar index closed down 0.058 at 99.580 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a three-week low today. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 101.265. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the March low of 98.670. Next resistance lies at 99.785 and then at 100.000. First support is seen at today’s low of 99.290 and then at 99.000. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0.
June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 21/32 at 154 3/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on more profit taking after hitting a five-month high on Tuesday. Bond bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 151 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 158 even. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 154 31/32 and then at this week’s high of 155 16/32. First support is seen at today’s low of 153 25/32 and then at this week’s low of 153 10/32. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T Notes closed down 9.5 32nds at 125.31.5 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on more profit taking after hitting a five-month high on Tuesday. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 127.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 124.00.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 126.11.0 and then at this week’s high of 126.20.0. First support is seen at this week’s low of 125.26.0 and then at 125.20.0. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. European and Asian stock markets were mostly slightly higher Thursday. Crude oil’s solid losses on Wednesday did give equities traders pause. The world marketplace is still very aware of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea, and the U.S. and Russia. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Wednesday afternoon took a very hard line on Iran, too. Tillerson said the days of a passive U.S. stance against regimes like Iran and North Korea are over. The hawkish U.S. posturing against its world adversaries is bullish for safe-haven gold. The first round of the French presidential elections will be held this Sunday. The second round will be on May 7. European market watchers are getting more nervous as the French elections approach and polls show tight races. The very existence of the European Union could hinge upon elections in the European Union this year.
The June Nasdaq stock index futures closed up 9.50 at 5,398.75. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the contract high of 5,481.25. The bears’ next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 5,315.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 5,430.75 and then at 5,450.00. First support is seen at today’s low 5,388.75 and then at last week’s low of 5,347.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5
The June e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed down 2.75 at 2,334.50. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are still in a gentle six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the contract high of 2,397.25. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of 2,317.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 2,349.25 and then at last week’s high of 2,363.25. First support is seen at today’s low of 2,331.25 and then at this week’s low of 2,322.75. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5.
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https://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff