Traders await U.S. inflation data Wed.

Tuesday, April 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a quieter U.S. data day again Tuesday but the pace picks up Wednesday. The releases of the March consumer price index and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will come at mid-week. The March CPI is seen coming in at up 3.4%, year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is seen at up 3.7% annually. Thursday comes the U.S. March producer price index and the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

Gold prices hit another record high of $2,384.50, basis June Comex futures overnight. Silver hit a two-year high of $28.29, basis May Comex futures. Gold is presently outperforming the S&P 500 so far this year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $86.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.4%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index, and the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,300.00 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,191.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,400.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,051.50 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 118 even and then at 118 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 117 even and then at this week’s low of 116 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 109.24.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.06.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.02.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0908 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0842 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $83.85. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Still not much new. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff