Monday, August 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Key U.S. and China inflation reports this week will be the major data points for the marketplace. Traders will also be closely watching the U.S. Treasury market this week, as prices have been dropping (yields rising).
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 4,560.75 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,493.75 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 15,610.25 and then at 15,789.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 15,336.50 and then at 15,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 122 5/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 119 25/32 and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.08.5 and then at 111.21.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 110.00.0 and then at the contract low of 109.24.0, scored on Friday. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1072 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0935 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a nine-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $83.30 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest still leans bearish for corn and soybeans. The data point of the week for the grain markets is Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff