Tuesday, November 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has slowly crept back into the general marketplace recently, as there has been no major military escalation in the Israel-Hamas war, at least from the markets’ point of view.
The U.S. data point of the week comes Tuesday with the release of the consumer price index report for October. CPI is forecast up 3.3%, year-on-year, versus a gain of 3.7% in the September report. The core CPI rate is seen up 4.1% versus 4.1% seen in the September report.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will meet Wednesday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. The White House cited a resumption of U.S./China military communications as a priority. Iran is also on the agenda, including the question of Iran’s nuclear program. A potential thawing of heretofore icy U.S.-China relations also has traders and investors with more upbeat attitudes this week.
U.S. lawmakers are once again scrambling to pass a measure to fund the federal government. This time the deadline is midnight Friday. This is “old hat” for the marketplace and markets are so far not reacting much to a potential U.S. government shutdown.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.62%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index and real earnings. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,450.00 and then at 4,475.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at 4,375.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,612.75 and then at 15,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,465.25 and then at 15,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 114 1/32 and then at last week’s high of 115 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 112 12/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last Friday’s high of 107.29.5 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 107.11.5 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways-to-higher for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at the November high of 1.0819. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0727 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $76.21 and then at the November low of $74.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were lower in overnight trading. Not much new early this week. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff