Thursday, April 25–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The U.S. data point of the day is the advance estimate for first-quarter GDP, including its inflation indexes. First-quarter GDP is seen coming in at up 2.4%, year-on-year, versus a 3.4% rise in the fourth quarter of last year. The report’s inflation indexes are expected to come in at up 2.0%, or just slightly below that level, year-on-year.
In overnight news, mining giant BHP offered to buy rival Anglo American for almost $39 billion. It’s a “potential megadeal that could reshape the global mining industry,” said DowJones Newswires.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, advance economic indicators, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,128.75 and then at 5,185.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 5,037.75 and then at this week’s low of 5,006.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,600.00 and then at 17,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,400.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 17,286.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 115 5/32 and then at 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at the April low of 113 10/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.08.0 and then at 108.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the April low of 107.13.5 and then at 107.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0772 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at the April low of 1.0628. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $83.71 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $80.70 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Recent price gains in corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets are providing clues that market bottoms are in place. More gains in the near term would suggest price uptrends can be developed and potentially sustained.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff