Tuesday, September 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stocks were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are in risk-off moods early this week, amid the high potential for a U.S. government shutdown this coming weekend. The Associated Press reports “there’s no clear path ahead as lawmakers return with tensions high and options limited.” The U.S. House is expected to vote Tuesday evening on a package of bills to fund parts of the government, but it’s not clear that House Speaker McCarthy has the support needed to move ahead. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate is preparing its own bipartisan plan for a stopgap measure to buy some time and keep offices funded past Saturday’s deadline. “A government shutdown would disrupt the U.S. economy and the lives of millions of Americans,” said the AP.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $89.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently at a multi-year high and fetching 4.509%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core Logic house price index, the Richmond Fed business survey, the consumer confidence index, and new residential sales.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,383.50 and then at 4,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,338.25 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,149.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,782.25 and then at 14,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Short covering is featured. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 even and then at 117 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 114 16/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.25.5 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight contract low of 108.00.5 and then at 107.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 10-month low overnight. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0693 and then at last week’s high of 1.0778. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0600 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $90.83 and then at last week’s high of $92.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $88.19 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mostly firmer in overnight trading. Not much new recently in the grain markets. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is in full swing. That is a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crops to the local elevators. Technicals remain fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff