Friday, March 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly higher when the New York day session begins.
U.S. inflation data this week that was warmer than expected has slightly dented general marketplace enthusiasm. The U.S. stock indexes are still trading near their recent record highs. However, U.S. Treasury yields have up-ticked this week. Bitcoin prices have late this week tumbled from the record high scored earlier this week. After the warmer U.S. CPI and PPI data this week, traders and investors late this week are a bit more concerned the Federal Reserve may not be able to cut U.S. interest rates as soon as they have recently suggested.
In overnight news, China’s central bank kept its interest rates steady after a monetary policy meeting.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down after posting solid gains Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $80.75 a barrel. Oil prices Thursday hit a 4.5-month high. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.285%.
U.S. economic reports due out Friday include the Empire State manufacturing survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and close to last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 5,157.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading but not far below last week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,400.00 and then at this week’s high of 18,506.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,138.00 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at Thursday’s high of 120 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 22/32 and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.20.0 and then at Thursday’s high of 111.30.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 110.00.0 and then at the February low of 109.25.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the March high of 1.1026. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 4.5-month high on Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.62 and then at $82.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at this week’s low of $76.79. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were narrowly mixed overnight. Not much new this week. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place. “Corn is king” in the grains, and if corn has bottomed out, so likely have the other grains. Corn bulls do need to step up and show more power soon.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff