Friday, February 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins.
Traders are now focusing on Friday morning’s monthly U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The January non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 175,000, compared to a gain of 216,000 in the December report.
Here are some overnight news headlines of note: “Oil prices gain on report OPEC to maintain voluntary price cuts”—Barrons. “Food prices fell 1% in January, United Nations FAO says”—Dow Jones Newswires. “Beijing is pledging more fiscal support”—Wall Street Journal. “Bank of England holds key rate, signals ’24 cut.”—WSJ.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes manufacturers’ shipments and inventories and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near this week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,963.75 and then at 5,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,900.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,866.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,500.00 and then at 17,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 124 24/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at 123 even and then at Thursday’s low of 122 15/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.27.5 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.16.0 and then at Thursday’s low of 112.09.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly up early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0917 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at this week’s low of 1.0799. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $76.95 and then at Wednesday’s high of $78.11. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $73.64 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were steady to higher overnight. Charts are still fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff