Friday, March 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Traders are awaiting what is arguably the U.S. data point of the month that is out Friday morning: the February employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs number is seen coming in at up 198,000 versus the rise of 353,000 seen in the January report.
In overnight news, the Euro zone’s fourth-quarter GDP came in unrevised from the previous estimate, at up 0.1%, year-on-year.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit lower and hitting a five-week low overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.075%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the monthly USDA supply and demand report for grains.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading and are not far below the overnight contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,237.25 and then at 5,265.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,175.00 and then at this week’s low of 5,124.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,623.50 and then at 18,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,350.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 122 13/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 121 8/32 and then at 120 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.00.0 and then at 112.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 111.11.0 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1000 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0920 and then at this week’s low of 1.0884. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at last week’s high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.52 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. On tap today is the USDA monthly supply and demand report. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off. Corn bulls are making a move but need to show more power to suggest a bottom is in place.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff