Friday, May 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $79.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.569%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. services PMI and the ISM report on business services.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,154.25 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,036.25 and then at 5,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 17,949.00 and then at 18,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 17,386.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 116 5/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 113 22/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.16.0 and then at 108.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.12.5. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at this week’s low of 1.0670. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a six-week low Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $78.41 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher overnight, boosted late this week by better risk sentiment in the marketplace after the Federal Reserve offered no hawkish surprises at the FOMC meeting this week. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, and soybean meal are trending higher on the daily bar charts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff