Wednesday, July 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, the Euro zone June consumer price index was reported up 5.5%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up trading around $75.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.754%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential construction and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and near this week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at 4,625.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,528.00 and then at 4,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and not far below Tuesday’s contract high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,029.75 and then at 16,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,799.25 and then at 15,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 127 18/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 24/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.08.0 and then at 113.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.13.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a 15-month high Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1310 and then at 1.1350. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1230 and then at 1.1200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $76.09 and then at the July high of $77.33. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $73.84 and then at $72.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were solidly higher overnight. Bulls are back in business this week amid weather forecasts for the Midwest that are turning hotter and drier, and the end of the Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal this week. Russia attacked a major Ukraine grain terminal earlier this week. Technicals are fully bullish for soybeans, turning more bullish for corn, and neutral to slightly bearish for wheat.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff