Tuesday, March 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is a bit better so far Tuesday as the U.S. and European banking turmoil continues to play out. Reports say JP Morgan bank chief Jamie Dimon is helping the troubled First Republic Bank through its crisis of investor/depositor confidence.
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting begins Tuesday and concludes Wednesday afternoon. There is still some debate in the marketplace regarding whether the Fed will raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points or stand pat amid the U.S. and European banking crisis. Most market watchers are leaning toward a 0.25% Fed funds rate increase. The 0.5% rate hike by the European Central Bank last week makes a 0.25% increase by the FOMC more likely.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and are trading around $68.50 a barrel, after hitting a 15-month low Monday. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.541%–up from levels seen Monday, which is an indication of less anxiety in the marketplace Tuesday. Gold prices are also weaker Tuesday, amid less safe-haven demand so far today.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales reports, and existing home sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,050.00 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the last week’s high of 12,811.25 and then at 12,924.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 12,525.25 and then at 12,314.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 28/32 and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 10/32 and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 115.14.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 114.00.0 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0822 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0690 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are higher on short covering after hitting a 15-month low on Monday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neural to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.77 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Bulls are working to stabilize the grain markets. However, keener risk aversion in the general marketplace has been and likely will continue limiting speculative buying interest in grains. The recent big drop in crude oil prices to a 15-month low is an ominous, bearish omen for the entire raw commodity sector, including the grains. Soybean market bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures are now breaking down, finally. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff