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Friday, July 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly down and Asian shares mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

The Chinese yuan currency hit another 12-month low against the U.S. dollar today after the Chinese central bank guided its currency down by 0.9%–the largest single-move depreciation against the dollar in two years. The yuan has declined by 2.3% against the greenback in July.

The marketplace is still buzzing about the CNBC interview with President Donald Trump, in which he criticized the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates. Trump said he is “not thrilled” about the recent U.S. interest rate hikes and is worried the progress his administration has made on the U.S. economy could be undone by higher rates. Trump also implied a stronger U.S. dollar could be disadvantageous for U.S. foreign trade. Still, he called Fed Chairman Jerome Powell a good man for the job. The U.S. dollar was pressured on the news, U.S. Treasuries rallied and gold and silver prices pared losses.

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The Comex gold futures market dropped to a 12-month low late this week as prices are in an accelerating downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are no early technical clues to suggest the yellow metal will put in a bottom any time soon–even though the market is now short-term oversold and due for a corrective bounce. The strong U.S. dollar and falling crude oil prices are bearish “outside market” forces working against the precious metals markets at present. Also, there is little risk aversion in the world marketplace so far this summer. Gold bulls need a good dose of new geopolitical uncertainty to boost the safe-haven metal. Stay tuned!

Thursday, July 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins, on some mild profit taking after scoring multi-month or contracts highs this week.

The U.S. hard line against its trading partners is back on the front burner of the marketplace and is pressuring world equity markets Thursday. President Trump has again threatened the European Union with tariffs on its automobiles. The Chinese yuan declined to a 12-month low against the U.S. dollar today amid expectations that Chinese monetary officials will continue to let the yuan depreciate, including by easing China’s monetary policy.

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Wednesday, July 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Global trader and investor attitudes remain upbeat, which is supportive for equities. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a very upbeat assessment on the U.S. economy to a U.S. Senate panel on Tuesday, which helped to boost U.S. stock indexes to contract or multi-month highs.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for June was reported up 0.1% from May and up 2.0%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

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The Nymex crude oil futures market has backed way down from the early-July high above $75.00 a barrel. The recent sharp down-days have produced some near-term technical damage to begin to suggest this market has put in a near-term top, if not a major top. More solid selling pressure this week would better suggest a top is in place. Fundamentally, world oil production is on the rise again, after some producer outages kept supplies off the world market in recent weeks. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, July 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. In quieter summertime trading, U.S. stock indexes are near multi-month highs, to underscore the “risk-on” trader mentality in the marketplace at present.

While not really market-sensitive, the media is still buzzing about the summit meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin on Monday. The news coverage is somewhat taking trader and investor attention away from other matters that may be more relevant to markets.

On tap today, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on monetary policy. The marketplace will parse his words for clues on timing of future interest rate increases.

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