Daily Morning Report

Monday, October 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The shine of Friday afternoon’s U.S.-China “Phase 1” trade agreement has quickly worn off. After having the weekend to ponder the matter traders and investors now reckon the agreement is fraught with potholes that are likely derail it. There are now reports China wants more talks before even signing the Phase 1 agreement. “The devil is in the details,” as the saying goes.

Also, the optimism expressed late last week regarding a U.K.-European Union agreement on Brexit has dimmed.

There was more dour economic news coming out of China to start the trading week. China’s exports to the U.S. dropped 22% in September, year-on-year. China’s total exports fell 3.2% in the month. China’s total imports in September were down 8.5%.

Gold prices are posting solid gains Monday, on safe-haven demand amid the dimmer view of last week’s U.S.-China trade talks progress and the weak China economic data.

Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $53.50 a barrel today. The other key “outside market” sees the U.S. dollar index modestly up in early U.S. trading.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

–Jim

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The U.S. stock indexes have seen very choppy trading recently, including higher intra-day volatility. The near-term daily bar charts for the S&P e-mini and Nasdaq futures show very strong overhead resistance at the summertime highs. Technical odds suggests that strong chart resistance will turn back rally attempts in the near term. This also implies that trading in the U.S. stock indexes will remain choppy and sideways, or sideways to lower, into the end of the year. Stay tuned!–Jim

Friday, October 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is upbeat to end the trading week. The U.S.-China trade talks appeared to have gone well this week in Washington, D.C. President Trump will meet today with China’s Vice Premiere Liu He, signaling at least a partial trade deal is close. News services are also reporting a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies is close at hand.

Also a positive for the marketplace and especially the Europeans are reports the U.K. and European Union are making some progress to avoid a “hard” Brexit that would disrupt European financial markets.

Traders worldwide are taking note of reports Iran says one of its oil tankers was attacked by missiles in the Red Sea, which is close to Saudi Arabia. That helped to push oil prices higher.

Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $54.50 a barrel today. The other key “outside market” sees the U.S. dollar index modestly down in early U.S. trading.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today.

–Jim

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Thursday, October 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors are awaiting the latest word coming from the trade talks between the U.S. and China that are taking place in Washington, D.C. Many were surprised that China trade officials even showed up for the negotiations after the U.S. hit China with new sanctions earlier this week. And there is also talk of a limited deal that might be struck between the two nations. As has been the case for many months, the trade talks are very fluid and a tweet from President Trump could change the whole tenor of the situation.

The U.S. data point of the day is the consumer price index report for September, which is expected to come in up 0.1% from August and up 1.8%, year-on-year.

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $52.50 a barrel today. The other key “outside market” sees the U.S. dollar index down in early U.S. trading.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings and monthly chain store sales.

–Jim

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The grain market bulls have made a comeback the past few weeks, with price uptrends in place for corn, soybeans and soft red winter wheat futures. It appears that seasonal or “harvest lows” are in place for the grains, and that prices can now work sideways to higher into the end of the year. Stay tuned!–Jim

Wednesday, October 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian stocks were mostly weaker overnight, while European shares were mostly up. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has up-ticked a bit at mid-week, on reports China says it is still open to a trade deal despite the latest U.S. sanctions imposed on that nation this week. Trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies are taking place in Washington, D.C. this week. Many market watchers are still very skeptical the two nations can reach a trade agreement anytime soon.

The U.S. data point of the day is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes that are due out at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday said in a speech the Fed will be purchasing more securities in an effort to keep short-term lending markets more liquid. The market place deemed his speech Tuesday as leaning toward the dovish side of U.S. monetary policy. Powell gives another speech today.

Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $53.00 a barrel today. Reports said Saudi Arabia’s oil capacity will be back to normal by November, or before, following the early-September missile attack on a major Sauid oil installation. The other key “outside market” sees the U.S. dollar index slightly down in early U.S. trading.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

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