Daily Morning Report

Thursday, May 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and new record highs when the New York day session begins. Strong quarterly earnings from Nvidia and reports of a News Corp. deal with OpenAI are fueling gains in the stock market today.

The marketplace has quickly digested Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes from the last meeting. The minutes leaned just a bit more hawkish than the marketplace expected. While the markets expected a “higher for longer” U.S. interest rate theme from the minutes, what the markets did not expect was that several FOMC members indicated they were willing to raise interest rates should inflation risks accelerate. The U.S. stock indexes saw selling pressure after the minutes were released and U.S. Treasury yields up-ticked a bit.

In overnight news, the Eurozone got some upbeat manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes (PMI)for April, as both beat market expectations. However, the manufacturing PMI reading was 47.4, which is still well below the 50.0 reading that suggests the sector is still in contraction.

A Barrons story today has a headline that reads: “Commodities are hot….” The story says “Commodities are having their moment. Gold and copper have hit historic highs while agriculture is knocking on the door to join the party.” The story continues, saying “bottom line, the commodity bull market is alive and well and has more upside.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.43%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes (PMIs), new residential sales and the Kansas City Fed business survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a contract and record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,375.00 and then at 5,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 5,334.00 and then at this week’s low of 5,306.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly up in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 19,000.00 and then at 19,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 18,843.25 and then at this week’s low of 18,633.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 19/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 116 24/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.10.5 and then at 109.18.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 108.28.5 and then at 108.20.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0876 and then at the May high of 1.0909. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0823 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $79.72 and then at this week’s high of $80.60. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the May low of $76.70 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn has seen its price uptrend stall out. HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are still trending higher on the daily bar charts. Weather in the U.S. grain regions is presently leaning slightly bullish.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are not far below their recent record highs. However, a Barrons.com story today is headlined: The market’s fear gauge is signaling trouble.” The story said the CBOE’s VIX index, which measures implied volatility, is very low at present, suggesting low fear in the marketplace. The story said “investors get greedy” during a low VIX. “History suggests something’s has to give.”

The U.S. data point of the day Wednesday, if not the week, is the afternoon release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve.

Gold prices are hovering not far below this week’s record high of $2,454.20, basis June Comex futures. A Wall Street Journal report today said gold’s rally the past several months has been mostly due to buying buy central banks and especially China. The Journal said central banks of the world are starting to diversify more away from U.S. dollar-based assets that can be more easily sanctioned. The report said U.S. economic sanctions on Russia, following its invasion of Ukraine, that have helped to crimp Russia’s economy, were sort of a wake-up call for countries like China, which could also be sanctioned by the U.S. The Journal report is headlined: “Gold’s latest allure? It’s sanctions proof.”

Another WSJ story this week is titled: “China tightens minerals grip as West fails to make headway.” The story highlights China’s stockpiling of minerals like nickel, lithium and cobalt that are critical for defense and green technology. Western countries are falling behind China is securing these minerals, said the WSJ.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly down and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.44%.  

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, existing home sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading and not far below the contract and record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,349.00 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,300.00 and then at 5,266.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,900.00 and then at 19,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,633.00 and then at 18,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 19/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 116 25/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.10.5 and then at 109.18.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.24.0 and then at 108.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0876 and then at the May high of 1.0909. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $79.72 and then at this week’s high of $80.60. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $77.35 and then at the May low of $76.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Corn has seen its price uptrend stall out, which is worrisome for all the grain markets, since “Corn is King.” HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are still trending higher on the daily bar charts. Weather in the U.S. grain regions is presently leaning slightly bullish.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, May 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins and are not far below last week’s record highs.

Risk aversion is a bit keener to start the trading week. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s foreign minister, and others were killed in a helicopter crash Monday. The crash was in a foggy, mountainous region of the country’s northwest, state media reported. It appears the helicopter had mechanical problems and that it was not shot down. Meantime, a Chinese oil tanker was hit by a Houthi missile in the Red Sea, adding to geopolitical tensions.

Gold prices hit a new record high overnight, at $2,454.20 an ounce, basis June Comex futures. Reports say Chinese speculators are snapping up gold at a torrid pace and that bullion from the West is moving to China to satisfy the strong demand. It could be that Chinese investors have soured on China’s economic prospects and China financial markets, including the unsteady yuan Chinese currency, and are purchasing safe-haven gold and silver. Chinese real estate investment dropped 9.8%, year-on-year, from January to April. Broker SP Angel this morning said “China is struggling to contain the impact of the collapse of two major property developers which have left thousands of unfinished properties in limbo. To compound the problem, many of these apartments have been sold with buyers supporting mortgages on properties they are not able to move into.”

Western speculators are also buying gold, silver and other commodity futures markets amid ideas the major central banks of the world will be able to ease their monetary policies in the coming months, which would spark better global economic growth that would then spur more demand for raw commodities.

Silver prices hit an 11-year high overnight, at $32.75 an ounce, basis July Comex futures. Comex copper futures hit a record high of $5.1990 a pound overnight, basis the July contract.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $79.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.42%.  

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,349.00 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,266.25 and then at last week’s low of 5,216.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 18,760.75 and then at 18,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,500.00 and then at 18,393.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 118 2/32 and then at the May high of 118 23/32. Shorter-term support lies at 117 even and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 109.18.5 and then at the May high of 109.31.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.00.0 and then at 108.24.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the May high of 1.0909 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 1.0849 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $80.39 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at the May low of $76.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. On tap today is the weekly USDX export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, May 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins, after setting record highs on Thursday.

In overnight news, the Euro zone April consumer price index was reported up 2.4%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

China’s government has announced measures to bolster is listing property sector, including a 300 billion yuan relending facility for affordable housing. China property stocks rallied sharply on the news. China also got some upbeat economic news today, as its April industrial output was up 6.7%, year-on-year, which was better than market expectations.

Comex copper futures prices this week hit a record high above $5.00 a pound. There continues to be talk in the metals industry of a big “short squeeze” in Comex copper futures. The respected broker SP Angel said this morning in an email dispatch: “China’s CMOC, which owns the IXM trading group, filed a report to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Thursday stating its positions were ‘completely controllable’ and its trades were ‘100% hedged to reduce price risks.’ Reuters reported on Wednesday that IXM and Trafigura were sourcing physical copper to deliver into CME to cover short positions. The positions reflect expectations that current copper prices have moved ahead of current demand requirements, with China buying muted. Supply disruptions have limited concentrate availability, seeing smelters rush to secure available feedstock to keep their operations running, with some operating at a loss. Traders expect redirected shipments into the U.S. to take some pressure of current prices, although this could take up to two weeks. Trading volumes in base metals have seen huge spikes this week, with LME contracts hitting all-time highs in liquidity terms. Speculators are wagering on base metals alongside hopes of lower interest rate environments and improved PMI data. Russian sanctions have also fueled concerns over metal shortages. Copper hedge fund positioning is reaching the highest levels since January 2018. Shanghai speculators are also taking part, with futures trading volumes setting record highs in April.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $79.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.38%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes leading economic indicators.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and not far below Thursday’s contract and record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,349.00 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 5,266.25 and then at this week’s low of 5,216.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are just a bit firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 18,760.75 and then at 18,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,500.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 18,393.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 118 2/32 and then at this week’s high of 118 23/32. Shorter-term support lies at 117 even and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 109.18.5 and then at this week’s high of 109.31.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.00.0 and then at 108.24.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0882 and then at this week’s high of 1.0909. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0828 and then at this week’s low of 1.0780. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are just a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at this week’s low of $76.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. It appears the speculators are wanting to play the long sides of the grains, including the big “fund” traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, May 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly firmer openings and at new record highs when the New York day session begins. A slightly cooler-than-expected U.S. CPI report on Wednesday cheered the stock and commodity market bulls.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.34%.  

Another busy day for U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, new residential construction, import and export price indexes, and industrial production and capacity utilization. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,343.25 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 5,266.25 and then at this week’s low of 5,216.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,800.00 and then at 18,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,600.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 18,393.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 118 22/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at 118 even and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at 110.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.16.0 and then at 109.08.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are down just a bit in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0909 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0828 and then at this week’s low of 1.0780. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $79.17 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.70 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices mixed but mostly firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. It appears the speculators are wanting to play the long sides of the grains, including the big “fund” traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is awaiting the U.S. consumer price index report for April, out this morning. CPI is seen up 0.4%, compared to the March report showing a rise of 0.4%. The annual CPI April reading is seen up 3.6% compared to up 3.8% in the March report. Traders and investors are thinking the CPI report might come in hot today, following the producer price index report for April that was out Tuesday morning and ran hot on inflation.

In overnight news, Comex copper futures hit a new record high of $5.1280 a pound. Tighter global supplies, better world economic growth, smelter issues in China, as well as rampant market speculation, are driving the red industrial metal’s price sharply higher. Could copper be the next cocoa? Cocoa futures last year at this time were trading around $3,000 a metric ton. In April, cocoa futures reached a record high of $12,261 a ton.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker and trading around $78.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.42%.  

Beside the CPI report, it’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data Wednesday, also including the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, real earnings, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and Treasury international capital data. A few Federal Reserve officials also are slated to speak today.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a five-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,300.00 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,216.75 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a five-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at 18,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,250.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,165.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 118 even and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at 116 even and then at this week’s low of 115 21/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a five-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 109.16.0 and then at 109.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.00.5 and then at this week’s low of 108.15.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are up just a bit in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0850 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0780 and then at last week’s low of 1.0740. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the May low of $76.89 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. It appears the speculators are wanting to play the long sides of the grains, including the big “fund” traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, May 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors are awaiting key U.S. inflation data for April out this week, starting with the producer price index on Tuesday and then the consumer price index on Wednesday. Tuesday’s PPI is seen up 0.3%, month-on-month, compared to a rise of 0.2% in the March report. CPI is seen up 0.4%, compared to the March report showing a rise of 0.4%. The annual CPI April reading is seen up 3.6% compared to up 3.8% in the March report.

In overnight news, Japanese bond yields are nearing the 1% mark amid the Bank of Japan’s effective slight tightening of its monetary policy. Japan’s government bond yields have not been above 1% for 12 years.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $79.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.477%.  

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, and the NFIB small business index.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the May high of 5,264.00 and then at 5,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,225.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 18,348.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,100.00 and then at last week’s low of 17,983.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the May high of 117 7/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 109.03.5 and then at the May high of 109.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 108.19.5 and then at 108.10.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are up just a bit in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the May high of 1.0832 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $77.78 and then at the May low of $76.89. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Grain market bulls have come to life. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. It appears the speculators are wanting to play the long side of the grains, including the big “fund” traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, May 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a quieter start to the trading week, with no major U.S. economic reports due out today.

Traders and investors are awaiting key U.S. inflation data for April out this week—the producer price index on Tuesday and the consumer price index on Wednesday. PPI is seen up 0.3%, month-on-month, compared to a rise of 0.2% in the March report. CPI is seen up 0.4%, compared to the March report showing a rise of 0.4%. The annual CPI April reading is seen up 3.6% compared to up 3.8% in the March report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.49%.  

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,300.00 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at 5,225.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 18,348.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,103.75 and then at last week’s low of 17,983.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 7/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 109.03.5 and then at the May high of 109.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 108.19.5 and then at 108.10.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are up a bit in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the May high of 1.0832 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $77.78 and then at the May low of $76.89. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, May 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The Bank of England holds is regular monetary policy meeting today. The BOE is expected to keep rates unchanged at a 16-year high of 5.25%. Investors will be looking for comments around policy outlook and any signs from the BOE for a possible rate cut.

China trade data for April came out better than market expectations, with exports up 1.5%, year-on-year and imports up 8.4% in the same period.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are higher trading around $79.55 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.51%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the monthly retail chain store sales index.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,226.75 and then at 5,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,155.75 and then at 5,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,266.25 and then at 18,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,100.00 and then at this week’s low of 17,983.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 116 9/32 and then at this week’s high of 117 7/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 109.00.0 and then at last week’s high of 109.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.16.0 and then at 108.08.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at last week’s high of 1.0832. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at 1.0670. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a nearly two-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at this week’s low of $76.89. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts for the first time in months.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have regained upside momentum the past couple weeks.

In overnight news, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari leaned hawkish on U.S. monetary policy by saying the central bank is likely to keep rates where they are “for an extended period of time.” Kashkari is not a voting member of the FOMC.

Sweden’s central bank, Riksbank, cut its main interest rate by 0.25% to 3.75%.

Reports said China’s central bank continues to stock up on gold reserves, adding 1.9 metric tons in April, making it 18 straight months for expanding its reserves. However, the reports said the pace of China gold buying has slowed.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are down and trading around $77.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.46%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,226.75 and then at 5,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,155.75 and then at 5,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,266.25 and then at 18,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,100.00 and then at this week’s low of 17,983.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 7/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 109.09.5 and then at 109.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 108.23.0 and then at 108.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at last week’s high of 1.0832. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0744 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a nearly two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.17 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.89 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight, on routine corrective pullbacks from recent good gains. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. Seasonal price tendencies are presently favoring the grain market bulls.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, May 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have regained some upside momentum the past few sessions.

Risk appetite has receded a bit Tuesday after Israel said it had taken control of part of the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza strip near the Egyptian border. The stepped-up Israeli military operations in Gaza come as there had been better hopes a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas might be imminent.

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank left its monetary policy unchanged at its regular meeting. The RBA said that while inflation is easing, it’s easing more slowly than expected and it will be some time before inflation is in the RBA’s target zone.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.465%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index and consumer credit.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading but hit a three-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,230.00 and then at 5,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 5,155.75 and then at 5,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,300.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 17,983.75 and then at 17,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 117 even and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 109.09.5 and then at 109.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 108.23.0 and then at 108.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0832 and then at 1.0880. Shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 1.0744 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $77.91 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight, on routine corrective pullbacks from recent good gains. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. Seasonal price tendencies are presently favoring the grain market bulls.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, May 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite in the general marketplace has up-ticked the past couple weeks as geopolitical tensions have not escalated and following last Friday’s “Goldilocks” U.S. jobs report that was not too hot and not too cold.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for March was down 0.4% from February and down 7.8%, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $79.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.479%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and the global services purchasing managers index (PMI).

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,200.00 and then at 5,225.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,150.00 and then at 5,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,100.00 and then at 18,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,900.00 and then at 17,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 116 18/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at 115 even and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 109.09.5 and then at 109.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.23.0 and then at 108.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0832 and then at 1.0880. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0744 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a six-week low Friday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $77.96 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, and soybean meal are trending higher on the daily bar charts. Seasonal price tendencies are presently favoring the grain market bulls.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, May 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s April U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs component of the jobs report is expected to show a rise of 240,000, following the March report showing a rise of 303,000. A significant miss on the print from the consensus forecast would likely move many markets.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $79.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.569%.  

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. services PMI and the ISM report on business services.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,154.25 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,036.25 and then at 5,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 17,949.00 and then at 18,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 17,386.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 116 5/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 113 22/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.16.0 and then at 108.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.12.5. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at this week’s low of 1.0670. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a six-week low Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $78.41 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight, boosted late this week by better risk sentiment in the marketplace after the Federal Reserve offered no hawkish surprises at the FOMC meeting this week. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, and soybean meal are trending higher on the daily bar charts.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, May 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace has mostly digested the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that Wednesday. The Fed left U.S. interest rates unchanged, as expected, but said there has been a “lack of further progress” in recent months toward its inflation target of 2% annually. The Fed said it is “strongly committed” to returning inflation to 2% and there will be no rate cuts until that time. Fed Chairman Powell in his press conference ruled out a rate hike coming soon. While the Fed leaned hawkish on U.S. monetary policy, there was nothing in the FOMC statement or Powell’s comments that surprised the marketplace. The marketplace seemingly breathed a sigh of relief the FOMC statement and Powell were not even more hawkish.

Friday morning comes the April U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs component of the jobs report is expected to show a rise of 240,000, following the March report showing a rise of 303,000. Wednesday’s ADP national employment report for April showed a rise of 192,000 jobs, compared to expectations for a rise of 183,000.

In overnight news, the Japanese yen rose against the U.S. dollar on likely more intervention from the Bank of Japan.

The OECD think tank raised its 2024 global economic growth projection to 3.1% from 2.9%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.614%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade report, preliminary productivity and costs, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the global manufacturing PMI.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,154.25 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,037.75 and then at 5,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 17,793.25 and then at this week’s high of 17,949.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,399.25 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 115 6/32 and then at 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 113 22/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.06.5 and then at 108.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 107.20.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.12.5. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at this week’s low of 1.0670. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a six-week low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $78.83 and then at $77.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight, boosted by better risk sentiment in the marketplace after the Federal Reserve offered no hawkish surprises at the FOMC meeting this week. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Wheat and soybean meal prices are still trending higher.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The highly anticipated Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ends this afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. No changes in monetary policy are expected, but the FOMC statement and Powell’s presser will be very closely scrutinized by the marketplace. Recent warmer U.S. inflation data has prompted most traders and analysts to dial back their timelines on any interest rate cuts from the Fed, if they come at all this year. There is a small camp of Fed watchers that think the next interest rate move by the Fed will be to hike. Most expect Powell to remain hawkish on U.S. monetary policy in his remarks today. Markets could become more active this afternoon. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “Fed has patience to let high rates work.”

On Friday morning comes the U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $80.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.69%.  

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, the job openings and labor (JOLTS) report, domestic auto industry sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,085.00 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,000.00 and then at the April low of 5,037.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,600.00 and then at 17,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 17,300.00 and then at 17,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 114 25/32 and then at 115 even. Shorter-term support lies at 113 16/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.00.0 and then at last week’s high of 108.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the April low of 107.04.0 and then at 107.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0648 and then at the April low of 1.0628. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.00 and then at last week’s high of $84.46. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Markets are seeing selling this week amid fears of “stagflation” in the U.S. economy in the coming months. Wheat and soybean meal prices are still trending higher but bulls have faded this week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

This week’s U.S. data highlights include the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. No changes in monetary policy are expected, but the FOMC statement and Powell’s presser will be very closely scrutinized by the marketplace. Recent warmer U.S. inflation data has prompted traders and analysts to dial back their timelines on interest rate cuts from the Fed, if they come at all this year.

A headline in the Wall Street Journal today reads: “Fed to signal it has stomach to keep rates higher for longer.” The story was written by reporter Nick Timiraos, who many believe has the inside track on getting top Fed officials to talk with him. He writes: “Firmer-than-anticipated inflation in the first three months of the year has likely postponed rate cuts for the foreseeable future.” Timiraos added the Fed will hold interest rates a level that will “provide meaningful restraint” to U.S. economic activity for longer than the Fed previously anticipated.

On Friday morning comes the U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department.

In overnight news, the Bank of Japan confirmed it intervened significantly in the foreign exchange market Monday to support the yen.

Also, Eurozone inflation held steady in April as the consumer price index was up 2.4%, year-on-year, which is the same as reported in March.

China’s Communist Party Politburo on Tuesday signaled it wants to continue to prop up its economy by cutting interest rates, especially to support its listing property sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly up. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $82.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.634%.  

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the employment cost index, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic home indexes, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,185.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,100.00 and then at 5,070.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 18,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 17,791.25 and then at 17,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 115 5/32 and then at 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 113 30/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 108.08.0 and then at 108.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.18.5 and then at 107.10.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at last week’s low of 1.0648. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $84.46 and then at $85.64. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at last week’s low of $80.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Markets are seeing corrective selling early this week, following recent price gains. Wheat and soybean meal prices are trending higher. More gains in beans and corn in the near term would suggest price uptrends can develop in those markets, too.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have stabilized their markets the past week, after they spent three weeks trending down. Still, veteran stock market watchers know the old saying, “Sell in May and go away” until after Labor Day.

It’s a very busy U.S. data week, highlighted by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. No changes in monetary policy are expected, but the FOMC statement and Powell’s presser will be very closely scrutinized by the marketplace. Recent warmer U.S. inflation data has prompted traders and analysts to dial back their timelines on interest rate cuts from the Fed, if they come at all this year. Former Fed official Roger Ferguson said on CNBC today that he expects Powell to sound a hawkish tone this week. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “High rates appear on track to persist long term.” On Friday morning comes the U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $83.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.64%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,185.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,100.00 and then at 5,070.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 18,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 17,668.25 and then at 17,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 115 5/32 and then at 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at 114 even and then at last week’s low of 112 27/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.00.0 and then at last week’s high of 108.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 107.18.5 and then at 107.10.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage as prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at last week’s low of 1.0648. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $84.46 and then at $85.64. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at last week’s low of $80.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Recent price gains in corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets suggest market bottoms are in place. Wheat prices are trending higher. More gains in beans and corn in the near term would suggest price uptrends can develop.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. 

The U.S. data point of the day Friday is the personal income and outlays report that includes the PCE inflation indexes that the Federal Reserve watches very closely. The PCE price index is seen coming in up 2.6%, year-on-year. The core PCE index (excluding food and energy) is seen up 2.7% on an annual basis. Thursday’s PCE inflation numbers in the 1Q GDP report came in warmer than expected.

In overnight news, DowJones Newswires reported that Chinese gold buyers, “spooked by a protracted property slump and recent stock market rout, are rushing toward gold as economic uncertainty looms, propelling a global bullion rally.” Gold consumption in China in the first quarter rose nearly 6% from a year earlier. China’s imports of gold raw materials rose by 78% in the same period.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit higher. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly up and trading around $84.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.692%. U.S. Treasury yields this week have hit five-month highs. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,165.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,100.00 and then at this week’s low of 5,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 17,827.50 and then at 18,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,600.00 and then at 17,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 114 even and then at this week’s high of 115 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 112 27/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 108.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.04.0 and then at 107.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage as prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at this week’s low of 1.0648. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $85.00 and then at $85.64. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at this week’s low of $80.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Recent price gains in corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets are providing clues that market bottoms are in place. Wheat prices are now trending higher. More gains in beans and corn in the near term would suggest price uptrends can develop.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 25–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion in the marketplace has receded the past couple weeks, allowing traders and investors to focus more on normal supply and demand, and economic fundamentals.

The U.S. data point of the day is the advance estimate for first-quarter GDP, including its inflation indexes. First-quarter GDP is seen coming in at up 2.4%, year-on-year, versus a 3.4% rise in the fourth quarter of last year. The report’s inflation indexes are expected to come in at up 2.0%, or just slightly below that level, year-on-year.

In overnight news, mining giant BHP offered to buy rival Anglo American for almost $39 billion. It’s a “potential megadeal that could reshape the global mining industry,” said DowJones Newswires.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $82.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.64%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, advance economic indicators, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,128.75 and then at 5,185.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 5,037.75 and then at this week’s low of 5,006.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,600.00 and then at 17,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,400.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 17,286.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 115 5/32 and then at 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at the April low of 113 10/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.08.0 and then at 108.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the April low of 107.13.5 and then at 107.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0772 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at the April low of 1.0628. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $83.71 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $80.70 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Recent price gains in corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets are providing clues that market bottoms are in place. More gains in the near term would suggest price uptrends can be developed and potentially sustained.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

An important theme has developed in the marketplace, especially in the foreign exchange market, the past few months. DowJones Newswires today has a headline that reads: “Asian central banks face policy dilemma from Fed rate-cut delay, FX crunch.” In the story, reporter Fabiana Negrin Ochoa says a surprise rate hike by Indonesia’s central bank accentuates expectations that the start of monetary policy easing is looking increasingly far off for many Asian central banks — if on the horizon at all. The Asian central banks fear they cannot cut rates before the Federal Reserve because it would further undermine their currencies that are already feeling the pressure of an appreciating U.S. dollar. Asian central banks lowering rates before the Fed does risks pushing inflation in the region higher. Yet, by delaying rate cuts the Asian central banks risk curbing economic growth by keeping borrowing costs higher. Recently, the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan have depreciated significantly against the dollar, as well as the currencies of South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $83.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.62%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,150.00 and then at 5,185.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 5,037.75 and then at this week’s low of 5,006.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,800.00 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,500.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 17,286.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 115 even and then at 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 113 31/32 and then at the April low of 113 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.08.0 and then at 108.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.17.5 and then at the April low of 107.13.5. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0738 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 1.0628 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $83.71 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $80.70 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were narrowly mixed overnight. Recent price gains in corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets are providing good clues that market bottoms are in place. More gains in the near term would suggest price uptrends can be developed and potentially sustained.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

A feature in the marketplace early this week is the steep drop in gold and silver prices. While major central banks and other longer-term investors have been snapping up gold bullion with no intention of selling it back anytime soon, it’s a different story with the shorter-term futures traders and the high leverage involved. That’s what’s driving this week’s downdraft in gold and silver prices: weak-handed futures traders (both in the U.S. and overseas futures markets) who are under water. Many of them are likely getting margin calls from their brokers. These shorter-term speculators are being forced to liquidate their losing long positions. Also, the fortunate futures traders that still hold a profit are taking those profits and getting out of the gold and silver futures markets. This is not anything new in futures markets trading. While the gold and silver bulls have lost their upside momentum, both markets remain overall firmly technically bullish. This week’s sell offs in the gold and silver markets are still just significant downside price corrections in major bull runs. However, if the sharp selling pressure continues deeper into this week, near-term technical damage would likely be inflicted to begin to suggest near-term market tops, if not major market tops, are in place. Trading action in gold and silver the rest of this week will be extra important. The bulls need to step up, stop the bleeding and show some fresh power soon to keep their bull runs alive.

In other news, the Japanese yen continues to depreciate against the U.S. dollar. Japan’s finance minister today said the Japanese government will take appropriate measures against excessive currency moves, and that the government is watching the yen’s situation with a sense of urgency. Meantime a Bank of Japan governor said the BOJ will raise short-term interest rates if inflation moves toward 2%, as the BOJ expects to happen.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $81.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.63%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes (PMI), the Richmond Fed business survey, and new residential sales.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,100.00 and then at 5,125.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 5,006.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,963.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,500.00 and then at 17,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 17,286.25 and then at last week’s low of 17,113.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 115 even and then at Monday’s high of 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at 114 even and then at the April low of 113 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.00.0 and then at 108.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the April low of 107.13.5 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0718 and then at 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 1.0628 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $83.01 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $80.70 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Finally, bulls have some positive news. Recent price gains in corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets are providing good clues that market bottoms are in place. More gains in the near term would suggest price uptrends can be developed and potentially sustained.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are sharply lower to start the trading week. Profit taking and weak long liquidation in the futures markets are featured. Perceived easing tensions in the Middle East are a bearish element for safe-haven gold and silver. Broker SP Angel said today in an email dispatch: “Many gold miners will be forward selling into the new high price levels with the influx of new metal into futures markets likely to temper further price rises. The ability of to secure futures prices of $2,373 an ounce will likely bring in substantial tonnages of gold from miners looking to secure profits in the face of inflation.” Gold prices have been driven higher in recent weeks due in part by a marked rise in trading activity on China’s futures exchanges.

In other news China’s central bank left its benchmark lending rates unchanged Monday, in line with market expectations. One-year and five-year prime loan rates were kept at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $83.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.64%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last Friday’s high of 5,058.00 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,963.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,400.00 and then at 17,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 17,113.25 and then at 17,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 115 even and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at the April low of 113 10/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107.25.5 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the April low of 107.13.5 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0715 and then at 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 1.0628 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $84.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $81.56 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly crop progress reports. Charts are still overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

After an initial overnight knee-jerk, the markets are not reacting strongly to an overnight Israeli retaliatory air strike on a major Iranian city, which apparently produced little damage. Military and geopolitical analysts are saying Israel’s military action overnight was limited and meant to show Iran that Israel has the capability to do a major, devastating strike on Iran if it wants to do so. Meantime, Iran appears to be, at least initially, downplaying the event as minor. Many analysts see the overnight event as possibly being the beginning of a de-escalation of Israel-Iran tensions. However, there are still major unknowns, such as how Iran will respond, or if Israel will strike Iran again. The U.S. military was not involved in the overnight Israeli air strikes.

Gold prices are trading a bit weaker early today, after a brief overnight spike on the Israeli air strike on Iran. Longtime gold market watchers have noticed that there has been much stronger demand for gold coming out of China recently, as evidenced by huge trading volumes in gold futures on the Chinese futures exchanges.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $82.25 a barrel—well down from the overnight spike high of $86.28. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.569%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 5,095.25 and then at 5,023.25. Support for active traders is seen at 5,000.00 and then at the overnight low of 4,963.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-month low overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading badly, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 17,770.75 and then at 18,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,300.00 and then at overnight low of 17,181.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 116 5/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 114 9/32 and then at this week’s low of 113 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.22.5 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 107.24.5 and then at this week’s low of 107.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer on short covering after hitting a 5.5-month low Tuesday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0715 and then at 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0628 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $83.00 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $81.56 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have lost steam the past couple weeks. Price uptrends on the daily bar charts have been negated. Traders and investors are reminded of the old market saying, “Sell in May and go away” until after Labor Day.

There have been no major developments the in the Iran-Israel hostilities the past few days, following last week’s barrage of missile and drone strikes by Iran against Israel. Come Friday, it’s likely traders and investors will be positioning for a very uncertain weekend on the Middle East front.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a 5.5-month high on Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $81.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.58%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales, and leading economic indicators.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week low Wednesday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 5,120.50 and then at 5,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,047.00 and then at 5,020.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week low Wednesday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,900.00 and then at 18,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,615.25 and then at 17,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 116 1/32 and then at 116 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at 114 even and then at this week’s low of 113 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.10.5 and then at this week’s high of 108.22.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer on short covering after hitting a 5.5-month low Tuesday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0758 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0628 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $82.95 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in remarks on Tuesday afternoon cast a hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy. He said U.S. inflation persists, calling into question whether the Fed can cut interest rates this year. He suggested interest rates may have to remain higher for longer, to get inflation back down to a level where the Fed feels more comfortable. U.S. Treasury yields rose to five-month highs after Powell’s comments.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for March came in at up 2.4%, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations.

Risk aversion remains elevated at mid-week, after the weekend air attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies. Israel has vowed to retaliate.

In other news, broker SP Angel reported overnight that metals analysts say central banks are buying around 25% of annual gold production–the highest level since the early 1970s when the Bretton Woods accord unraveled.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a 5.5-month high on Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $84.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.65%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,150.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 5,075.75 and then at 5,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week low overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 18,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 17,778.00 and then at 17,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 114 24/32 and then at this week’s high of 116 1/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 113 10/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 108.04.0 and then at this week’s high of 108.22.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.13.5 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer on short covering after hitting a 5.5-month low Tuesday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0628 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $86.18 and then at last week’s high of $87.67. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.05 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Still not much new in the grains. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Risk aversion is still elevated Tuesday, following the weekend Iranian air attacks on Israel. Israel’s military chief said Israel will retaliate, despite U.S. warnings to Israel that the U.S. won’t participate in any retaliation. NBC reports that an Israeli military response to Iran’s attack is imminent. At present, the general marketplace appears to be taking any Israeli retaliation lightly, as markets are not seeing keen risk aversion or stronger moves into safe-haven assets. This full-time 40-year markets watcher thinks the marketplace is presently dead wrong, regarding thinking the Israel-Iran conflict will not escalate significantly. It seems to me that Israel finally has its good excuse to take out or seriously degrade Iran’s military and its nuclear weapons capability. Iran has vowed in the past to destroy Israel.

In overnight news, China’s first-quarter GDP beat market expectations by rising 5.3%, year-on-year versus 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 20/22 and 4.8% expected by forecasters. On the downside, China’s industrial production in March was up 6.1% versus up 7.0% February and 6.6% forecast. March retail Sales were up 4.7%, year-on-year versus up 5.5% in February and 5.4% expected. And the bad news: China’s property Investment was down 9.5% in March compared to down 9.0% in February and down 9.2% expected by the marketplace. Residential property Sales were down 30.7% in March versus down 32.7% in February, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $85.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.63%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, new residential construction, and industrial production and capacity utilization. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,150.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 5,081.25 and then at 5,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 18,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 17,792.00 and then at 17,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 114 24/32 and then at this week’s high of 116 1/32. Shorter-term support lies at 113 even and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.04.0 and then at this week’s high of 108.22.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.18.5 and then at 107.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer on short covering after hitting a 5.5-month low Monday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0629 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.67 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.05 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Still not much new in the grains. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have turned wobbly this week after a hotter U.S. consumer price index report on Wednesday. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Fed rate cuts are now a matter of if, not when.”

Geopolitical tensions are heightened to end the trading week. The Wall Street Journal reported Israel is set for another assault against Iran following an air strike on an Iranian compound last week. Meantime, Iran has threatened retaliation, and said it may block the important Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping route.

Gold hit another record high overnight on the keener risk aversion. Precious metals bulls have been impressed with gold and silver rallying despite higher bond yields. Broker SP Angel said in a morning email dispatch that Bloomberg reported Chinese gold ETFs have seen huge inflows, with some up 40% since the end of March. “Chinese investors are rushing to safe haven assets as their property sector continues to slump and their equity market fares little better. China’s Yuan remains under pressure, with the PBoC continuing to fix the currency onshore at 7.1 per dollar,” said the broker. Central banks are also reported to be snapping up gold.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher and at a 5.5-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $86.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.53%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export price indexes and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,250.00 and then at this week’s high of 5,285.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,173.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,518.75 and then at the contract high of 18,709.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,053.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a four-month low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 116 even and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 114 29/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a five-month low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.24.0 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.00.5 and then at this week’s low of 107.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are sharply lower and hit a 5.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0758 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0650 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.55 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were a bit higher overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, on follow-through selling from Wednesday’s solid losses following a hotter U.S. consumer price index report Wednesday morning that threw into further question whether the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates this year. On tap today is the producer price index report for March, seen coming in at up 0.3% from February and compares to a 0.6% rise in the February report.

The European central bank is meeting on its monetary policy and will soon announce its results.

China got some inflation data Thursday that highlighted its deflationary price pressures. Its CPI in March was up 0.1% versus up 0.7% in February and a 0.4% rise that was expected. China’s PPI was reported down 2.8% in March versus down 2.7% February and a 2.8 decline that was forecast. All of those figures were year-on-year. These figures are likely to see Chinese monetary and fiscal authorities step up their economic stimulus measures.

In other news, Bloomberg reported its sources are saying Iran or its proxies could launch a retaliatory military strike against Israel in the coming days, after an Israeli air strike killed some top Iranian military officials in Syria a couple weeks ago.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit higher after its strong rally to a 4.5-month high Wednesday rallying after the hotter U.S. CPI report. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $85.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.57%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the PPI report, and monthly U.S. chain store sales.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week low Wednesday. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,225.00 and then at 5,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,176.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,300.00 and then at this week’s high of 18,474.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,053.50 and then at 17,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting a four-month low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 116 16/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 115 9/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a five-month low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.16.0 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.04.5 and then at 108.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and hit a nearly two-month low. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.55 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Traders are also awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors are awaiting the Wednesday releases of the morning March consumer price index and the afternoon minutes of the last FOMC meeting. The March CPI is seen coming in at up 3.4%, year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is seen at up 3.7% annually. Thursday comes the U.S. March producer price index and the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

Reads a Dow Jones Newswires headline today: “Commodities rally reflects a better economy, but also poses inflation risks.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $85.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.36%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, monthly wholesale trade, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,300.00 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,191.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at the April high of 18,612.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,160.75 and then at last week’s low of 18,051.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 118 17/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 117 even and then at this week’s low of 116 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at 110.06.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 109.06.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.02.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0916 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0842 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $83.85. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly firmer overnight. Still not much new. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a quieter U.S. data day again Tuesday but the pace picks up Wednesday. The releases of the March consumer price index and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will come at mid-week. The March CPI is seen coming in at up 3.4%, year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is seen at up 3.7% annually. Thursday comes the U.S. March producer price index and the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

Gold prices hit another record high of $2,384.50, basis June Comex futures overnight. Silver hit a two-year high of $28.29, basis May Comex futures. Gold is presently outperforming the S&P 500 so far this year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $86.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.4%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index, and the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,300.00 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,191.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,400.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,051.50 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 118 even and then at 118 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 117 even and then at this week’s low of 116 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 109.24.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.06.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.02.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0908 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0842 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $83.85. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Still not much new. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Last Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report has the marketplace now reckoning the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates only twice this year. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Economic data stir doubts about Fed rate cuts.”

The economic highlights this week will be Wednesday, with the releases of the March consumer price index and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. Thursday comes the U.S. March producer price index and the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

In weekend/overnight news, Israel said it is withdrawing some of its troops from Gaza but said the ground offensive will continue. Ceasefire talks are said to be ongoing.

Gold prices hit another record high overnight, with June Comex gold futures climbing to $2,372.50. Broker SP Angel today in an email dispatch said the rally has “dumfounded” most analysts, given the break from its correlation with U.S. Treasuries, which have sold off over the past month. Also, the U.S. dollar has been stronger and that’s usually bearish for gold and silver. “Central bank buying has been a sustained source of support for gold, with Bloomberg reporting China’s PBOC has added gold for the 17th month in a row,” said the broker, adding this has fueled speculation over a potential devaluation of the Chinese yuan, as well as geopolitical concerns over heightened aggression against Taiwan.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $86.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.45%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,308.50 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,191.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at 18,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,051.50 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a four-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 117 4/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at 116 even and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a four-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 109.13.5 and then at 109.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.00.0 and then at 108.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are just a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0908 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at last week’s low of 1.0758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-month high last Friday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $83.85. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and weekly USDA crop progress reports. Charts remain overall bearish for wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. China markets were closed Friday for a holiday.

The marketplace is awaiting the U.S. data point of the week, if not the month, on Friday morning. The March employment situation report from the Labor Department is due out. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 200,000, which compares to a rise of 275,000 in the February report. Look for some higher markets volatility after the jobs report, especially if it’s a big miss from market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $86.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.32%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer credit report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,250.00 and then at 5,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 5,191.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,300.00 and then at 18,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 17,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 118 26/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 116 24/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 110.06.0 and then at 110.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 109.20.0 and then at this week’s low of 109.09.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0908 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at this week’s low of 1.0758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are just a bit firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-month high Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $87.22 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $83.85. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 4–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The stock and bond markets were somewhat assuaged by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on the U.S. economy in a speech at Stanford University Wednesday afternoon. He said U.S. interest rate cuts are likely this year. The marketplace at present has priced in two interest rate cuts this year.

In overnight news, the Eurozone February producer price index was reported down 8.3%, year-on-year. The decline was mostly due to a drop in energy prices.

The marketplace is awaiting the U.S. data point of the week, if not the month, on Friday morning. The March employment situation report from the Labor Department is due out. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 200,000, which compares to a rise of 275,000 in the February report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady after hitting a five-month high Wednesday and are trading around $85.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.36%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade report, the weekly jobless claims report, the global services PMI. A few Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,333.50 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5.235.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 18,612.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,300.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,201.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 118 26/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 116 24/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 110.03.0 and then at 110.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 109.09.5 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0901 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-month high Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $86.20 and then at $87.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $83.85 and then at this week’s low of $82.60. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to slightly up overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, there was a major 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Taiwan that killed at least seven and injured dozens. The temblor was the strongest in a quarter century and may have impacted the region’s semiconductor industry.

Eurozone inflation cooled a bit in March, as its consumer price index was reported up 2.4%, compared to up 2.8% in February, year-on-year. Reads a DowJones Newswires headline: “Eurozone inflation cools, setting the stage for June rate cut.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer, hit a five-month high, and are trading around $85.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.36%.

U.S. economic reports due for release Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,333.50 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5.235.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 18,345.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,201.50 and then at 18,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 118 26/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 117 5/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 110.03.0 and then at 110.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 109.14.5 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0833 and then at last week’s high of 1.0901. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0758 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a five-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $86.00 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $83.85 and then at this week’s low of $82.60. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. Not much new this week. Charts remain overall bearish for wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

Featured in the marketplace early this week is rising U.S. Treasury yields following recent strong U.S. economic data, including Monday’s stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing report. That has given the U.S. monetary policy doves some pause on their notions of an interest rate cut coming as early as June.

In overnight news, an air strike on the consular part of Iran’s embassy in Damascus, Syria, killed three senior members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Iran blamed Israel for the strike. This is another escalation in the already-turbulent Middle East. Gold rose to another record high overnight, partly due to safe-have demand amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

In other news, the Japanese yen sank to a 34-year low against the U.S. dollar today. Reads a DowJones Newswires headline today: “Yen intervention risk is rising, but effects could be short-lived.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher, hit a five-month high, and are trading around $85.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.34%–the highest this year.

U.S. economic reports due for release Tuesday include the Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, the JOLTS survey, the global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto industry sales. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,333.50 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5.271.25 and then at 5,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and not far below the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at the contract high of 18,709.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,414.75 and then at 18,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 118 26/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at 118 even and then at the February low of 117 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.03.0 and then at 110.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the March low of 109.24.5 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a six-week low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0833 and then at last week’s high of 1.0901. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0758 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hitting a five-high low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $85.46 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $83.85 and then at this week’s low of $82.60. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to firmer overnight. Several European markets remained closed for the Easter holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and at or near record highs when the New York day session begins and on this first day of April.

Stock and financial markets overnight are buoyed by last Friday’s report that the U.S. PCE price Index was up 0.3% in February compared to the previous month. The rise was slightly lower than the revised 0.4% increase in January and fell short of market forecasts for a 0.4% increase. The annual rate of PCE inflation rose marginally from 2.4% to 2.5%, aligning with forecasts. However, when considering the monthly core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy and is a preferred measure of inflation by the Federal Reserve, there was a deceleration. The core PCE inflation rate slowed to a 0.3% rise from a revised 0.5% rise in January, matching the anticipated rate. This report favors the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sooner rather than later.

Gold prices overnight surged to a record high of $2,264.20 an ounce, basis nearby Comex futures.

In overnight news, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for March came in at 50.8 from 49.1 in February and beat market expectations. A reading above 50.0 suggests expansion in the sector. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “China’s manufacturing data reflect upturn, but host of hurdles remain.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $83.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.20%.

U.S. economic reports due for release Monday include the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing and construction spending.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,350.00 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,300.00 and then at last week’s low of 5.271.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,709.00 and then at 18,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 18,414.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 120 20/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 119 2/32 and then at the March low of 118 3/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 110.31.5 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 110.11.5 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0862 and then at last week’s high of 1.0901. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $86.62 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at $80.55. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. The planting intentions report and the quarterly grain stocks report, out last Thursday, was bullish for corn. Charts remain overall bearish for wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward near steady openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes continue on a slow and steady rise and are near their recent record highs.

It’s a very busy U.S. data release schedule Thursday, including U.S. Q4 GDP data and its inflation indexes, as well as a major USDA crop planting intentions report. U.S. markets are closed Friday for the Good Friday holiday but personal income and outlays, including PCE inflation data, will be released that day.

Today is the last U.S. trading day of the week, of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an important trading day from a technical chart perspective.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $82.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.25%.

U.S. economic reports due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the 4Q GDP report, the Chicago ISM business survey, pending home sales, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, the USDA planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks report and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,322.75 and then at 5,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5.271.25 and then at 5,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,619.00 and then at the contract high of 18,709.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,414.75 and then at 18,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 120 12/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 119 2/32 and then at last week’s low of 118 3/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.31.5 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.11.5 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0862 and then at this week’s high of 1.0901. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0808 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $82.48 and then at last week’s high of $83.12. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $80.55 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Grain traders are awaiting one of the most important sets of USDA reports of the year due out Thursday: the planting intentions report and the quarterly grain stocks report. Bigger price moves could occur after these reports due out in late morning. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. It was a quieter trading affair overnight and U.S. data releases at mid-week are light. However, it’s a very busy U.S. data release schedule Thursday, including U.S. Q4 GDP data as well as a major USDA crop planting intentions report. U.S. markets are closed Friday for the Good Friday holiday but personal income and outlays, including PCE inflation data, will be released that day.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $81.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.23%.

U.S. economic reports due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,322.75 and then at 5,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5.271.25 and then at 5,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,709.00 and then at 18,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,414.75 and then at 18,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 120 6/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 119 2/32 and then at last week’s low of 118 3/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.30.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.11.5 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0901 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0839 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $82.48 and then at last week’s high of $83.12. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.55 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Grain traders are tentative ahead of one of the most important sets of USDA reports of the year due out Thursday: the planting intentions report and the quarterly grain stocks report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and at or near this week’s record highs when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are set to end their best week of gains this year.

The marketplace is paying little attention as the U.S. Congress today is working to avert another federal government shutdown.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. The USDX has seen solid gains since Wednesday’s FOMC meeting conclusion and was helped by some stronger U.S. economic data released Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $81.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.24%.

There are no major U.S. economic reports due out Friday.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and near Thursday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,322.75 and then at 5,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 5.233.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher and near the contract and record high set Thursday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,709.00 and then at 18,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,500.00 and then at 18,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 3/32 and then at the February low of 117 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.26.5 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 110.08.5 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0905 and then at this week’s high of 1.0981. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0845 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $81.92 and then at this week’s high of $83.12. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. The late-week surge in the U.S. dollar index is bearish for the grains. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and at or near record highs when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace is still buzzing about the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting that ended Wednesday afternoon and saw the Federal Reserve keep its monetary policy unchanged, as expected. The FOMC and Fed Chairman Powell leaned a bit dovish. The FOMC statement said the U.S. economy is growing and inflation has eased but is still elevated. The statement said no rate cuts will occur until the Fed has more confidence inflation has been tamed. Still, the statement said the Fed sees three interest rate cuts this year, which is what the marketplace focused more on. The Fed appears willing to tolerate slightly higher inflation for longer and still cut rates.

The U.S. dollar index weakened on the FOMC/Powell statements. U.S. Treasury yields dipped a bit. However, gold prices soared to record highs, with April Comex gold hitting a record high of $2,225.30 an ounce. The much stronger move in gold is puzzling to many long-time gold watchers, given the more modest price moves in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasuries. It makes one wonder if a big player, like a bank, put on a huge long-side trade in gold futures in the afternoon after-hours market, when volume may have been thinner.

The Bank of England holds its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. The USDX has seen a solid rebound from the March low and the bulls still have the slight technical advantage. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $81.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.2%.

U.S. economic reports due out Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes, existing home sales and leading economic indicators. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen also testifies to a Senate finance committee today.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 5,315.75 and then at 5,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 5.233.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and near the contract and record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,691.25 and then at 18,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,500.00 and then at 18,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 3/32 and then at the February low of 117 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 111.00.0 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.12.5 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0981 and then at the March high of 1.1026. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at this week’s low of 1.0874. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $81.92 and then at this week’s high of $83.12. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open narrowly mixed when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace has been subdued so far this week, ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting conclusion Wednesday afternoon that sees a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. No change in Fed policy is expected, but as always the marketplace will parse the statement and Powell’s presser for clues on the future path and timing of monetary policy. The Bank of England holds its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.

In overnight news, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said if the ECB’s projections remain in line by June, the central bank can start “dialing back” interest rates.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. The USDX has seen a solid rebound from the March low and the bulls have the technical advantage. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $82.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.27%.

Other U.S. economic reports due out Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and near the recent contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,181.75 and then at 5,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,381.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,006.25 and then at 17,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 3/32 and then at the February low of 117 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.16.0 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 109.24.5 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0946 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0874 and then at 1.0844. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Tuesday hit a 4.5-month high. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $83.85 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. data point of the week will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. No change in policy is expected, but as always the marketplace will parse the statement and Powell’s presser for clues on the future path and timing of monetary policy.

In overnight news, the Japanese yen sunk against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Japan ended its era of negative interest rates. The BOJ set its main interest rate range at zero to 0.1%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $82.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.3%.

U.S. economic reports due out Tuesday include the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report and new residential construction.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading but not far below the recent contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,157.00 and then at 5,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down a bit in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,381.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,006.25 and then at 17,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 even and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at 118 this week’s low of 118 3/32 and then at the February low of 117 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.05.5 and then at 110.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 109.24.5 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0946 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0874 and then at 1.0844. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a 4.5-month high. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $83.09 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed to higher when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. data point of the week will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. No change in policy is expected, but as always the marketplace will parse the statement and Powell’s presser for clues on the future path and timing of monetary policy.

In overnight news, economic data out of China was a mixed bag. January-February industrial output rose 7%, year-over-year, which is the fastest growth in two years. Retail sales in the same period were up 5.5%, down from 7.4% growth in the December period.

The Eurozone February consumer price index was reported up 2.6%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $81.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.31%.

U.S. economic reports due out Monday is light and includes the NAHB housing market index.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below the recentg contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,157.00 and then at 5,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 18,322.75 and then at 18,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,006.25 and then at 17,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading and hit a two-week low overnight. Bulls have faded. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 even and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at 118  even and then at the February low of 117 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 110.11.0 and then at 110.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the February low of 109.25.5 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the March high of 1.1026. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0914 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a 4.5-month high. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $82.04 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly higher when the New York day session begins.

U.S. inflation data this week that was warmer than expected has slightly dented general marketplace enthusiasm. The U.S. stock indexes are still trading near their recent record highs. However, U.S. Treasury yields have up-ticked this week. Bitcoin prices have late this week tumbled from the record high scored earlier this week. After the warmer U.S. CPI and PPI data this week, traders and investors late this week are a bit more concerned the Federal Reserve may not be able to cut U.S. interest rates as soon as they have recently suggested.

In overnight news, China’s central bank kept its interest rates steady after a monetary policy meeting.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down after posting solid gains Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $80.75 a barrel. Oil prices Thursday hit a 4.5-month high. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.285%.

U.S. economic reports due out Friday include the Empire State manufacturing survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and close to last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 5,157.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading but not far below last week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,400.00 and then at this week’s high of 18,506.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,138.00 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at Thursday’s high of 120 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 22/32 and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.20.0 and then at Thursday’s high of 111.30.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 110.00.0 and then at the February low of 109.25.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly  up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the March high of 1.1026. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 4.5-month high on Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.62 and then at $82.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at this week’s low of $76.79. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were narrowly mixed overnight. Not much new this week. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place. “Corn is king” in the grains, and if corn has bottomed out, so likely have the other grains. Corn bulls do need to step up and show more power soon.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins.

It’s a heavy U.S. economic report schedule today. After Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index report for February that was warmer than expected, traders are now focused on Thursday’s February producer price index report. PPI in February is seen coming in at up 0.3%, month-on-month, following a 0.3% rise in the January report. More warm U.S. inflation readings in the coming weeks may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates as soon as it had just recently anticipated.

Other U.S. economic reports out Thursday include retail sales, the weekly jobless claims report, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.194%.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and close to last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 5,157.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading but not far below last week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,506.75 and then at the contract high of 18,691.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,300.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,138.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 121 5/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 121 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at 120 even and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 111.10.5 and then at Tuesday’s high of 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.25.0 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1026 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0946 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the March high of $80.85 and then at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at this week’s low of $76.79. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place. “Corn is king” in the grains, and if corn has bottomed out, so likely have the other grains.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace has mostly digested Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index for February that came in a bit warmer than expected, at up 3.2%, year-on-year, versus market expectations for a rise of 3.1%, and compares to a rise of 3.1% seen in the January report. The core CPI number for February was up 3.8% compared to expectations of up 3.7% and up 3.9% seen in the January report. The slightly warmer CPI readings followed the slightly warmer-than-expected CPI report for January. Thursday’s February producer price index report is now in focus. PPI in February is seen coming in up 0.3%, month-on-month, following a 0.3% rise in the January report. More warm U.S. inflation readings in the coming weeks may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates as soon as it had just recently anticipated.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.162%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and are not far below last Tuesday’s contract and record high close. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,157.00 and then at last week’s low of 5,124.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading but not far below last week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,600.00 and then at the contract high of 18,691.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,300.00 and then at 18,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 121 27/32 and then at last week’s high of 122 13/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 120 16/32 and then at 120 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 111.24.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.00.0 and then at 110.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1026 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0946 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the March high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.79 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place. “Corn is king” in the grains, and if corn has bottomed out, so likely have the other grains.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. data point of the week comes on out today: the consumer price index report for February, seen coming in at up 3.7%, year-on-year, versus a rise of 3.9% seen in the January report. A warm or hot reading, which would be above 3.7%, could derail the U.S. stock market rally, as well as gold’s surge and U.S. Treasury yields’ recent declines. JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon said overnight the Federal Reserve should wait until after June to lower interest rates. Dimon, visiting Australia, also told a group that the U.S. stock market could be in a bubble phase, adding to be extra cautious when an investment looks so obvious.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.089%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and are not far below last Friday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,157.00 and then at last week’s low of 5,124.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last Friday’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,400.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,200.00 and then at last week’s low of 18,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 122 13/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at last Friday’s low of 121 2/32 and then at 120 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.00.0 and then at last week’s high of 112.04.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last Friday’s low of 111.08.0 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1026 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0950 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the March high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.79 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place. “Corn is king” in the grains, and if corn has bottomed out, so likely have the other grains.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins and are not far below last week’s record highs as the bull run in the U.S. stock market rolls on.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.077%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index. Arguably the U.S. data point of the week comes on Tuesday: the consumer price index report for February, seen coming in at up 3.7%, year-on-year, versus a rise of 3.9% seen in the January report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading and are not far below Friday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,150.00 and then at last week’s low of 5,124.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are just a bit weaker in early U.S. trading and not far below Friday’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at the contract high of 18,691.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,075.00 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 122 13/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 121 2/32 and then at 120 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.00.0 and then at 112.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Friday’s low of 111.08.0 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week high Friday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.1026 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0963 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the March high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $77.25 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts remain bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. Corn, soybeans and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts. My bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off or in place now.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins and are at or near record highs.

Traders are awaiting what is arguably the U.S. data point of the month that is out Friday morning: the February employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs number is seen coming in at up 198,000 versus the rise of 353,000 seen in the January report.

In overnight news, the Euro zone’s fourth-quarter GDP came in unrevised from the previous estimate, at up 0.1%, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit lower and hitting a five-week low overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.075%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the monthly USDA supply and demand report for grains.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading and are not far below the overnight contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,237.25 and then at 5,265.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,175.00 and then at this week’s low of 5,124.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,623.50 and then at 18,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,350.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 122 13/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 121 8/32 and then at 120 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.00.0 and then at 112.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 111.11.0 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1000 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0920 and then at this week’s low of 1.0884. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at last week’s high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.52 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. On tap today is the USDA monthly supply and demand report. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off. Corn bulls are making a move but need to show more power to suggest a bottom is in place.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

The marketplace has mostly digested Fed Chairman Powell’s comments to a House of Representatives financial committee on Wednesday. The marketplace deemed Powell’s remarks as leaning a bit more dovish. He said it is likely the Fed will cut interest rates this year, as inflation has notably receded. The U.S. stock market rallied on Powells comments, while the U.S. dollar index sold off and Treasury yields dipped. Powell testifies before a Senate panel today.

In overnight news, China economic data saw the world’s second-largest economy’s imports in January and February up 3.5%, year-on-year, while its exports were up 7.1% in the same period. Those numbers were better than market expectations. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “China’s growth figures don’t add up.”

Traders are awaiting what is arguably the U.S. data point of the month that is out Friday morning: the February employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs number is seen coming in at up 198,000 versus the rise of 353,000 seen in the January report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower, on follow-through selling from Wednesday’s losses. Nymex crude oil prices are down and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.102%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade in goods and services report, revised productivity and costs, consumer credit and monthly retail chain store sales data. U.S. President Biden delivers his State of the Union speech Thursday night.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading and are not far below this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,200.00 and then at the contract high of 5,220.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,124.25 and then at 5,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at the contract high of 18,623.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 122 even and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 120 9/32 and then at 119 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.23.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this Wednesday’s low of 111.02.5 and then at this week’s low of 110.21.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0961 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0884 and then at last week’s low of 1.0844. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at last week’s high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.52 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. On Friday comes the USDA monthly supply and demand report. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open firmer when the New York day session begins.

On tap today is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking to the U.S. House of Representatives committee on U.S. monetary policy. Traders and investors will closely scrutinize his comments for clues on the future path of U.S. money policy.

In overnight news, China’s January and February imports and exports rose 8.2%, year-on-year, according to China’s commerce minister. Meantime, China’s central bank governor said there is more scope to cut the bank’s reserve requirement ratio, to effectively boost lending. China’s National People’s Congress is meeting this week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $79.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.166%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, monthly wholesale trade, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the jobs and labor turnover survey (JOLTS), and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and are not far below this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,200.00 and then at the contract high of 5,220.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,124.25 and then at 5,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,400.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,075.00 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 9/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 119 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 119 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.15.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.21.0 and then at last low of 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0884 and then at last week’s low of 1.0844. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at last week’s high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.52 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Still not much new in the grains. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to weaker when the New York day session begins.

Gold futures prices hit a record high of $2,135.80 in overnight trading. The yellow metal is getting a boost from ideas the major central banks this year will ease their monetary policies, which would in turn stimulate better demand for metals.

This week sees China’s National People’s Congress, including the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. China’s government set a 5% annual or so GDP growth target, which was stronger than most expected and viewed skeptically by the marketplace. “It is not easy for us to realize these targets,” Prime Minister Li Qiang told delegates of the National Peoples’ Congress. China officials also laid out plans to issue 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) of ultra-long special government bonds this year. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Xi accepts slowdown, risking stagnation.” The story said, “It is the end of the Chinese growth miracle as we know it,” and China’s leader Xi Jinping is fine with that.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for January came in down 8.6%, year-on-year. Most of the decline was in the energy sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.186%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business services, the RCM-TIPP economic optimism index, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the global services PMI. Today is also the “super Tuesday” presidential primary balloting. Also on tap this week, Fed Chairman Powell addresses Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and the monthly U.S. employment report is out on Friday.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly lower in early U.S. trading and are not far below Monday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,220.00 and then at 5,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 5,150.50 and then at last week’s low of 5,121.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract high Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,623.50 and then at 18,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,300.00 and then at 18,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 121 even and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 119 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 119 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 111.02.0 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.21.0 and then at last low of 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0844 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at last week’s high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were a bit lower overnight. Still not much new in the grains. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 4–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins, after hitting record highs Friday.

This week sees China’s National People’s Congress, including the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. Broker SP Angel said in an email dispatch today: “We expect more rhetoric on transitioning the economy towards high-tech industries and pulling of economic levers. We do not expect to see any particular form of quantitative easing but we do see policies to acquire and finish the construction of many property developments.” China’s economic growth target may be revised to a range of 4.5-5.0%, according to Oxford Economics.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $79.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.209%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday. However, the data pace picks up the rest of the week, including Fed Chairman Powell addressing Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and the monthly U.S. employment report on Friday.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but are just below Friday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,211.00 and then at 5,235.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 5,150.50 and then at last week’s low of 5,121.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading  after hitting a contract high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 18,623.50 and then at 18,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,400.00 and then at Friday’s low of 18,273.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 120 2/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at Friday’s low of 118 15/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 111.02.0 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 110.16.0 and then at Friday’s low of 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0844 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $80.85 and then at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China’s official purchasing managers indexes in February showed little change in the pace of expansion. Manufacturing remaining in contraction for the fifth straight month, while growth in services up-ticked in February. China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was

49.1 in February versus 49.2 in January and a 49.0 reading expected. The services PMI was 51.4 versus 50.7 January and 50.7 forecast. The composite PMI was 50.9, the same as in January. Readings below 50.0 suggest contraction in the sector.

In other news, the Euro zone consumer price index for February came in at up 2.6%, year-on-year, versus up 2.8% in January and a forecast for up 2.5%. The core CPI was up 3.1%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $79.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.223%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global manufacturing PMI, domestic auto industry sales, construction spending and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but are just below last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,184.25 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,121.00 and then at 5,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a contract high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 18,400.75 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,070.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 119 23/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 118 22/32 and then at this week’s low of 118 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.23.5 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.08.0 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0916 and then at last week’s high of 1.0937. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0844 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.05 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly weaker overnight. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open weaker when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. data point of the week is Thursday morning’s personal income and outlays report for January, which includes the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation indexes. The PCE price index in January is seen up 2.6%, year-on-year, while the core PCE price index is seen up 2.9% in the same period. Those forecasts are just slightly higher than the readings seen in the December report.

Bitcoin prices have soared this week and are presently trading around $63,500. Barron’s reports bitcoin’s rise is due to better risk appetite in the marketplace, the big rally in the technology heavy Nasdaq stock index, and notions the Federal Reserve will lower U.S. interest rates later this year.

Broker SP Angel said this morning in an email dispatch that China has signaled more fiscal pump-priming for its economy. The Chinese politburo has vowed to make the policy environment “transparent and predictable” in reaction to weak business and consumer confidence. Chinese leadership is signaling it intends to double down on more fiscal instruments to support the economy. “President Xi is pushing ‘disruptive innovation’ and technology self-reliance which, we suspect, is best led by a number of tech entrepreneurs than state-led companies, particularly when it comes to semiconductors and AI,” said the broker.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.305%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago ISM business survey, pending home sales, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but not far below last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,169.00 and then at the contract high of 5,184.25. Support for active traders is seen at 5,100.00 and then at 5,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,298.25 and then at the contract high of 18,382.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 17,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 even and then at this week’s high of 119 23/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 6/32 and then at the February low of 117 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.14.0 and then at this week’s high of 110.21.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the February low of 109.25.5 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0916 and then at last week’s high of 1.0937. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0847 and then at last week’s low of 1.0816. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.62 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at this week’s low of $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open down when the New York day session begins.

Bitcoin prices have soared this week and are presently trading around $60,000. Barron’s today reported bitcoin’s rise is due to better risk appetite in the marketplace, the big rally in the technology heavy Nasdaq stock index, and notions the Federal Reserve will lower U.S. interest rates later this year.

The U.S. data point of the week is likely going to be Thursday morning’s personal income and outlays report for January, which includes the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation indexes. The PCE price index in January is seen up 2.6%, year-on-year, while the core PCE price index is seen up 2.9% in the same period. Those forecasts are just slightly higher than the readings seen in the December report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are down and trading around $78.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.284%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the second estimate of four-quarter gross domestic product, the advance economic indicators report and the DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading but not far below last Friday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,153.50 and then at the contract high of 5,184.25. Support for active traders is seen at 5,100.00 and then at 5,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,276.75 and then at the contract high of 18,382.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,100.00 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 119 23/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 6/32 and then at the February low of 117 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.21.5 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 109.31.5 and then at the February low of 109.25.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0847 and then at last week’s low of 1.0816. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at this week’s low of $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Not much new lately. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open narrowly mixed when the New York day session begins, after setting record highs Friday. It’s a quieter start to the trading week. It is a busy week for U.S. economic data releases.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $76.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.246%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes new residential sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady and not far below last Friday’s contract and record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,184.25 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,130.00 and then at 5,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after posting a contract and record high last Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,382.50 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,100.00 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 119 23/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.21.5 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.11.5 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0816 and then at the February low of 1.0753. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $78.92 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins, after hitting new record highs Thursday. Soaring earnings from chip-maker Nvidia has helped to propel equities worldwide, reported the Wall Street Journal.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $77.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.335%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady and not far below Thursday’s contract and record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,168.50 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,100.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 5,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after posting strong gains Thursday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,357.25 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,100.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 17,910.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 even and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 117 11/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.22.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.25.5 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the this week’s high of 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0816 and then at the February low of 1.0753. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.92 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.32 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight on short covering following the recent solid selling pressure across the board. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading. Japan’s Nikkei stock index Thursday hit a record high for the first time in 34 years. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins, with the S&P 500 futures hitting a new record high overnight.

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its January consumer price index up 2.8%, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations. Meantime, the Euro zone composite purchasing managers index (PMI) for February came in at 48.9, which was just above market expectations. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $78.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.307%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes, existing home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher and hit a contract and record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,150.00 and then at 5,175.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 5,075.00 and then at 5,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,357.25 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 17,910.00 and then at 17,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 even and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 117 21/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.22.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the February low of 109.31.5 and then at 109.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0816 and then at the February low of 1.0753. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.56 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.32 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to firmer overnight. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. My bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open weaker when the New York day session begins. It’s a busy week for U.S. corporate earnings reports.

Traders are also looking forward to Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve. Recent warmer U.S. inflation reports have the marketplace thinking the Fed will hold off on lower interest rates until the second half of the year, if even then. The FOMC minutes may offer some more insight on the Fed’s thinking on that matter.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $76.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.262%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly Johnson Rebook retail sales report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,088.00 and then at the contract high of 5,125.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,000.00 and then at 4,970.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,043.00 and then at 18,261.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,685.25 and then at 17,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 even and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 117 24/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last Friday’s high of 110.25.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 109.31.5 and then at 109.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0891 and then at 1.0955. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0816 and then at the February low of 1.0753. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.56 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Not much has changed recently. Charts are fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. My bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins. It will be a busy week for U.S. corporate earnings reports.

In overnight news, reports said Houthi rebels continue to attack ships traversing the Red Sea.

In other news, China has lowered key interest rates for mortgages in an effort to jumpstart its troubled housing/property sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.277%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes leading economic indicators.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on profit taking and not far below the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearsh early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,066.50 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,936.50 and then at 4,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading but not far below the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 17,807.50 and then at 18,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 17,542.00 and then at 17,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 20/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 117 22/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 110.07.5 and then at 110.17.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 109.15.0 and then at 109.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0830 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0709 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 3.5-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. On tap today the weekly USDA export inspections report. Not much has changed recently. Charts are fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open firmer when the New York day session begins.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. producer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 0.1% from December, compared to a 0.1% month-on-month decline in the December PPI report.

Here’s a startling headline from the Wall Street Journal today: “The U.S. government will soon spend more on interest payments than defense.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $77.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.26%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes new residential construction and the University of Michigan consumer survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near this week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,066.50 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 5,011.00 and then at 5,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,121.50 and then at 18,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 17,780.50 and then at Wednesday’s low of 17,669.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 119 20/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 117 26/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.07.5 and then at Thursday’s high of 110.17.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.28.0 and then at this week’s low of 109.16.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0830 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0709 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.77 and then at the January high of $79.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today the annual USDA Ag Outlook conference. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. Seasonality factors are turning a bit more bullish for the grain markets as springtime approaches. But still, there are no solid, early technical clues to suggest the grain markets have put in price bottoms.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open just slightly higher when the New York day session begins. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Chip frenzy pushes Taiwan stocks to all-time high.”

The next U.S. inflation report comes with Friday’s producer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 0.1% from December, compared to a 0.1% month-on-month decline in the December PPI report. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “Pro Take: No big consumer price declines are in sight.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker after hitting a three-month high Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $76.00 a barrel. Reads a Dow Jones Newswires headline today: Higher global oil supply set to satisfy demand increase, IEA says.”

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.226%.

It’s a very busy U.S. data release day Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories, the NAHB housing market index, and Treasury international capital data.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,066.50 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4,968.75 and then at this week’s low of 4,936.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at the contract high of 18,121.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 17,669.25 and then at this week’s low of 17,542.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a nine-week low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at this week’s high of 120 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 118 18/32 and then at this week’s low of 117 26/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a 2.5-month low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.20.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.00.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.16.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting a 3.5-month low overnight. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at this week’s high of 1.0830. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0709 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to beaerish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this $77.00 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Also late this week is the annual USDA Ag Outlook conference Thursday and Friday, which will have new supply and demand estimates for the grains. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. Seasonality factors are turning a bit more bullish for the grain markets as springtime approaches. But still, there are no solid, early technical clues to suggest the grain markets have put in price bottoms.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. China is celebrating its Lunar New Year holiday this week and many China markets are still closed.  U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace has mostly digested Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index report for January that came in at up 3.1%, year-on-year, compared to forecasts for up 2.9% and compares to a rise of 3.4% in the December report. The “core” CPI (excluding food and energy) for January came in at up 3.9%, year-on-year. The U.S. stock indexes sold off sharply, the U.S. dollar index surged, U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly and gold prices posted solid losses. The CPI report all but dashed hopes the Federal Reserve would start to lower interest rates early this spring. The warmer-but-still-not-hot CPI print Tuesday was not that far out of line from market expectations, yet the aforementioned markets showed serious reactions. It’s my bias the CPI report that was a bit warmer than expected was just an excuse for the U.S. stock market to experience a downside correction that was needed anyway, after the major U.S. indexes hit record highs earlier this week. And the U.S. dollar index was already trending up before the CPI news. Bond yields were already creeping up, too. Don’t be surprised to see stock market bulls look at Tuesday’s big pullback as a buying opportunity in existing solid price uptrends for the major indexes.

The next U.S. inflation report comes with Friday’s producer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 0.1% from December, compared to a 0.1% month-on-month decline in the December PPI report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker after hitting a three-month high Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $78.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.291%.

U.S. data out today includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 5,040.00 and then at the record high of 5,066.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,936.50 and then at 4,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 17,963.25 and then at the contract high of 18,121.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,542.00 and then at 17,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer after hitting a nine-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 even and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 117 27/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at 110.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.16.5 and then at 109.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a 3.5-month low overnight. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at this week’s high of 1.0830. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.47 and then at the January high of $79.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. The rallying U.S. dollar index this week and the risk-off trader mentality in the general marketplace are bearish for the grains. This week is the annual USDA Ag Outlook conference Thursday and Friday, which will have new supply and demand estimates for the grains. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. Seasonality factors are turning a bit more bullish for the grain markets as springtime approaches. But still, there are no solid, early technical clues to suggest the grain markets have put in price bottoms.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

The U.S. economic data point of the day Tuesday is the consumer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 2.9%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 3.4% in the December report. Other data out today includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business optimism index and real earnings.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. China is celebrating its Lunar New Year holiday this week. Many China markets are closed much of this week for the annual holiday.  U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower today on profit taking after hitting record highs Monday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $77.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.166%.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,066.50 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,000.00 and then at 4,970.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 17,963.00 and then at the contract high of 18,121.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,750.00 and then at 17,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 120 14/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 119 14/32 and then at the January low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last Friday’s high of 111.01.0 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 110.16.0 and then at 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0820 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $77.84 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. This week is the annual USDA Ag Outlook conference Thursday and Friday, which will have new supply and demand estimates for the grains. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. Seasonality factors are turning a bit more bullish for the grain markets as springtime approaches. But still, there are no solid, early technical clues to suggest the grain markets have put in price bottoms.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. China is celebrating its Lunar New Year holiday this week. Many China markets are closed much of this week for the annual holiday.  In China it is the year of the Dragon. Broker SP Angel reports in a morning email dispatch that jewelers in China are reported to have stocked up on dragon-themed gold jewelry, with gold jewelry sales expected to rise 30% this year. “The ‘dragon baby’ rush could drive gold prices to new highs if the nation decided to invest in this direction,” said the broker. “     Government officials are hoping the influence of year of the dragon, which is revered for its power, strength, good luck and wisdom, will encourage couples to raise the birth rate. The last year of the dragon in China saw a 38% rise in new births.”

U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed today and are near their record highs scored last Friday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $76.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.162%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the monthly Treasury budget statement. The data pace picks up Tuesday, including the release of the consumer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 2.9%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 3.4% in the December report.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and near Friday’s record high. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,075.00 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 5,013.00 and then at 4,970.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,100.00 and then at 18,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 17,852.25 and then at 17,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 120 14/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 119 15/32 and then at the January low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 111.01.0 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 110.16.0 and then at 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0820 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $77.29 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Also this week is the annual USDA Ag Outlook conference, which will have new supply and demand estimates for the grains. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. Seasonality factors are turning a bit more bullish for the grain markets as springtime approaches. But still, there are no solid, early technical clues to suggest the grain markets have put in price bottoms.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open modestly up today and at new record highs. Risk appetite in the marketplace has been keener this week despite still-elevated geopolitical concerns.

China is getting ready for its Lunar New Year holiday that starts this weekend. Many China markets will be closed for several days next week for the annual holiday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $76.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.168%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a record high overnight. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,050.00 and then at 5,075.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4.970.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,937.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 18,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,750.00 and then at this week’s low of 17,554.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 120 28/32 and then at this week’s high of 121 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 119 20/32 and then at the January low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady and hit a seven-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.30.0 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.22.0 and then at 110.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0805 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $77.00 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. Seasonality factors are turning a bit more bullish for the grain markets as springtime approaches. But still, there are no solid, early technical clues to suggest the grain markets have put in price bottoms.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open modestly down today, on mild corrective pullbacks following their record highs set Wednesday.

In overnight news, China, the world’s second-largest economy, reported its consumer price index fell a sharper-than-expected 0.8%, year-on-year, in January. That’s the fourth consecutive month of declines and the biggest contraction since 2009. China is facing “significant economic headwinds that could impact investors around the world,” said Nigel Green, the CEO of deVere Group. “Prolonged deflation in China poses a threat to its manufacturing and export sectors, key drivers of that nation’s economic growth and sectors often favored by international investors. The deflationary trend in China could also weigh heavily on commodities and industries dependent on natural resources.” Green said the cumulative effect of three years of economic downturn, “erasing a staggering $7 trillion of value, demands a departure from the smaller measures. It’s time for Beijing to adopt steps to reignite growth and restore confidence,” Green said.

China is getting ready for its Lunar New Year holiday that starts this weekend.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher and trading around $74.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.125%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, monthly wholesale trade and monthly retail chain store sales. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen testifies before the Senate and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president Thomas Barkin speaks to the Economic Club of New York.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, after hitting a record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 5,020.00 and then at 5,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,937.75 and then at 4,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 17,875.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,700.00 and then at this week’s low of 17,554.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 31/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 119 30/32 and then at the January low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.07.5 and then at this week’s high of 111.21.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.22.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0805 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at this week’s low of $71.41. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight, on the downbeat China data. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report and the midday monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open narrowly mixed and not far below their record highs when the New York day session begins. It’s a quieter marketplace at mid-week, with no new fundamental developments to significantly influence the markets. Risk appetite in the general marketplace is not robust, but neither is risk aversion keen—evidenced by U.S. stock indexes hovering near their record highs scored just recently. China is getting ready for its Lunar New Year holiday that starts this weekend.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer and trading around $73.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.2%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the international trade report, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and consumer credit. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to give speeches today.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,997.75 and then at 5,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,937.75 and then at 4,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,554.25 and then at 17,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 31/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 119 30/32 and then at the January low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.11.5 and then at this week’s high of 111.21.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.22.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0804 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at this week’s low of $71.41. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open narrowly mixed and not far below their record highs when the New York day session begins.

Middle East tensions are still on the front burner of the marketplace. The U.S. has ramped up its retaliatory attacks on the Houthi rebels. Meantime, there is ongoing talk of a cease-fire coming soon in the Israeli-Hamas war.

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank left is monetary policy unchanged, but said future increases in interest rates cannot be ruled out. The Reserve Bank of Australia also said it will be some time before inflation sustainability will be in the RBA’s target range.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer and trading around $73.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.154%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is scheduled to testify today at a U.S. House of Representatives financial hearing.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract and record high last Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,997.75 and then at 5,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 4,963.75 and then at 4,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and just below last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 17,554.25 and then at 17,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 31/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at 120 even and then at the January low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.03.0 and then at 111.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.22.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0804 and then at 1.0650. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0741 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $71.41 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight on tepid short covering. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins.

Risk aversion is elevated to start the trading week, following weekend U.S. and U.K. air strikes on Houthi rebel bases in Syria and Iraq, which were followed by at least six Kurdish fighters being killed in a drone attack on a Syrian base housing U.S. troops.

In overnight news, the Eurozone December producer price index was reported down 0.8% from November and down 10.6%, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a nearly three-month high. Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $71.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.079%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI and the employment trends index.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,997.75 and then at 5,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,963.75 and then at 4,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 17,465.50 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 121 31/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at 120 even and then at the January low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.21.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.00.0 and then at the January low of 110.26.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0804 and then at 1.0650. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $73.00 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts are still fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins.

Traders are now focusing on Friday morning’s monthly U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The January non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 175,000, compared to a gain of 216,000 in the December report.

Here are some overnight news headlines of note: “Oil prices gain on report OPEC to maintain voluntary price cuts”—Barrons. “Food prices fell 1% in January, United Nations FAO says”—Dow Jones Newswires. “Beijing is pledging more fiscal support”—Wall Street Journal. “Bank of England holds key rate, signals ’24 cut.”—WSJ.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer and trading around $74.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.88%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes manufacturers’ shipments and inventories and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near this week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,963.75 and then at 5,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,900.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,866.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,500.00 and then at 17,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 124 24/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at 123 even and then at Thursday’s low of 122 15/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.27.5 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.16.0 and then at Thursday’s low of 112.09.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0917 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at this week’s low of 1.0799. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $76.95 and then at Wednesday’s high of $78.11. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $73.64 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to higher overnight. Charts are still fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open firmer when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace has mostly digested the Open Market Committee meeting of the Federal Reserve that concluded Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC left interest rates unchanged, as expected, but the statement said any rate cuts will not come until the Fed has “greater confidence” annual inflation is moving toward 2%. The statement also said the U.S. economy is expanding at a “solid” pace. Traders deemed the statement as leaning a bit hawkish.

Traders are now focusing on Friday morning’s monthly U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The January non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 175,000, compared to a gain of 216,000 in the December report.

In overnight news, the Eurozone consumer price index for January came in at up 2.8%, year-on-year versus the December reading of up 2.9% and forecasts for up 2.7%. Reads a Dow Jones Newswire headline today: “Eurozone inflation falls less than expected, pushing back ECB rate-cut prospects.”

The Eurozone January manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 46.6 versus 44.4 in the December report. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, held its main interest rate steady at 4.0% and said contractionary monetary policy is still needed to stabilize inflation closer to its target rate.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $76.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.942%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, preliminary productivity and costs, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, the global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto industry sales.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,900.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 4,938.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,872.50 and then at 4,841.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 17,484.00 and then at 17,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,221.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 123 4/32 and then at 123 15/32. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 121 13/32 and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.20.5 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 111.23.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0908 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0799 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $78.11 and then at this week’s high of $79.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $75.44 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Not much new. Charts are still fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 31–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion remains elevated at mid-week after an Iran-backed Houthi drone strike against U.S. troops in Jordan last weekend killed three U.S. soldiers. President Biden said Tuesday he has decided on a plan for retaliation, which he said will be strong and in stages.

The U.S. economic data point of the week is the Open Market Committee meeting of the Federal Reserve that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is not expected to change U.S. monetary policy at this meeting but will likely give fresh guidance on futures policy plans. Many market watchers believe that the Fed won’t cut interest rates until at least June.

In overnight news, China’s business activity picked up in January, led by the services sector with manufacturing remaining in contraction. The official purchasing managers index (PMI) data showed the manufacturing PMI at 49.2 in January versus 49.0 December and 49.3 forecast. The services PMI was 50.7 in January compared to 50.4 December and 50.6 forecast. The January composite PMI was 50.9 versus 50.3 December. A reading above 50.0 suggests expansion, while a reading below 50.0 signals contraction.

If the central bankers of the world are really the “smart money” in the global marketplace, gold must be an asset for investors to own. The World Gold Council reports global central banks continued to snatch up gold in 2023 and will continue to do so in 2024. Central banks’ collective purchases in 2023 were 1,037 tons, the WGC said. China’s central bank was the biggest buyer.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $77.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.032%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the employment cost index, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are in overnight trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s record high of 4,957.25 and then at 5,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,901.75 and then at 4,875.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,500.00 and then at 17,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,300.00 and then at 17,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 122 5/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 120 19/32 and then at this week’s low of 119 23/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.02.0 and then at 112.12.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 111.11.0 and then at this week’s low of 111.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0817 and then at the December low of 1.0770. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $78.11 and then at this week’s high of $79.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $75.85 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight on corrective pullbacks after Tuesday’s gains. Charts are still fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian stock markets were mixed in overnight trading, while European stock indexes were mostly up. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion remains keener early this week after an Iran-backed Houthi drone strike against U.S. troops in Jordan last weekend killed three U.S. soldiers. President Biden said the U.S. would respond. Now the world waits to see what the U.S. does.

The U.S. economic data point of the week is the Open Market Committee meeting of the Federal Reserve that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is not expected to change U.S. monetary policy at this meeting but will likely give fresh guidance on futures policy plans.

Some interesting news headlines this morning: “Europe’s stagnating economy falls further behind the U.S.”—Wall Street Journal. “GM went all-in on electric cars, but dealers say they want hybrids.”—WSJ. “China’s wobbles could throw the global economy off its axis”—Barrons.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $77.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.062%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller home indexes, and the job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower but did hit a contract and record high in overnight trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,975.00 and then at 5,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,901.75 and then at 4,875.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract and record high last week. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 17,457.50 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering after hitting a six-week low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 121 14/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 119 23/32 and then at last week’s low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.27.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 111.05.0 and then at the January low of 110.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a six-week low. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0817 and then at the December low of 1.0770. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at Monday’s high of $79.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian stock markets were mostly up and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins.

Risk aversion is keener to start the trading week after an Iran-backed Houthi drone strike against U.S. troops in Jordan killed three U.S. soldiers. President Biden said the U.S. would respond.

In other overnight news, reports said a Hong Kong court has issued a liquidation order on China’s Evergrande Group after the property development company failed to reach an agreement with its creditors. The liquidation will be closely watched by the marketplace. Bloomberg reported most of Evergrande’s assets are located in mainland China with the order to test the legal reach of Hong Kong courts.

The U.S. economic data point of the week is the Open Market Committee meeting of the Federal Reserve that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is not expected to change U.S. monetary policy at this meeting but will likely give fresh guidance on futures policy plans.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $78.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.107%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,934.25 and then at 4,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,874.25 and then at 4,841.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract and record high last week. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 17,409.50 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a six-week low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 121 5/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 119 23/32 and then at last week’s low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 111.19.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.05.0 and then at the January low of 110.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading and near Friday’s six-week low. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0872 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0834 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a two-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $79.29 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts are bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open a bit weaker when the New York day session begins. The S&P and Nasdaq indexes have hit record highs this week as risk appetite in the general marketplace has up-ticked recently.

The U.S. data point of the day, if not the week, is the personal income and outlays report for December, including its inflation components. Personal income is seen up 0.3% from November. Consumer spending is forecast up 0.5% from November. The PCE core price index is seen up 3.0%, year-on-year. The PCE inflation numbers are said to be the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauges.

In other news, the Wall Street Journal reports China is accelerating its monetary-policy-easing steps. “Chinese officials have signaled deepening concerns about the economy by unleashing a burst of measures aimed at reviving growth and steadying markets,” said the WSJ story.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $76.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.118%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes pending home sales.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,933.25 and then at 4,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,874.25 and then at 4,841.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,409.50 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a six-week low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 5/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 119 even and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.19.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the January low of 110.26.0 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0956 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0834 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a seven-week high Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $77.51 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $75.16 and then at Wednesday’s low of $73.94. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 25–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly up and European shares mostly down. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins. The S&P and Nasdaq indexes have hit record highs this week as risk appetite in the general marketplace has up-ticked recently.

Part of the better risk appetite is due to China easing its monetary policy this week. Wednesday’s surprise 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut for banks in China “has seen buyers step into an illiquid market on expectations of a revival in construction activity,” said broker SP Angel today. Metals markets in China rallied across the board overnight “as optimism in China takes over after a seasonal lull,” said the broker. Tin rallied 1%, copper hit monthly highs and iron ore pushed higher. Premier Li Qiang called for further steps to support the economy, following the recent move to buy Chinese shares.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $76.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.157%.

It’s a very busy slate of U.S. economic data due out Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the advance fourth-quarter GDP estimate and its inflation readings, the advance economic indicators report, durable goods orders, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey and new residential sales.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,933.25 and then at 4,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,874.25 and then at 4,841.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,409.50 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a six-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at this week’s high of 121 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 119 even and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.19.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the January low of 110.26.0 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0956 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0845 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $77.50 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $73.94 and then at this week’s low of $72.56. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly up overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins. The S&P and Nasdaq indexes have hit record highs this week as risk appetite in the general marketplace has up-ticked recently.

In overnight news, China’s central bank eased its monetary policy Wednesday, announcing it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for its commercial banks by 50 basis points, according to officials. The move is expected to inject 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) of liquidity into Chinese markets. China and Hong Kong stocks rallied on the news. Some analysts said the move by China’s central bank is not enough and more government spending is needed to shore up the world’s second-largest economy.

In other news, the Euro zone composite (services and manufacturing) purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 47.9 in January, which was below expectations. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $74.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.105%.

U.S. economic data due out Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the U.S. flash and services manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMI) and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,950.00 and then at 4,975.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,874.25 and then at 4,841.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,750.00 and then at 17,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,409.50 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 5/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at the January low of 119 10/32 and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.19.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 111.04.0 and then at last week’s low of 110.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0940 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0845 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $75.46 and then at $76.31. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $72.56 and then at last week’s low of $70.62. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were up overnight. Not much new lately. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins. The S&P and Nasdaq indexes hit record highs Monday as risk appetite in the general marketplace has up-ticked just recently. Reads a Barron’s headline today: “Fed rate cut looks more distant, but soft landing’s on track.”

In overnight news, reports said China’s government is considering a $280 billion cash infusion to stabilize its eroding stock market. China held its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates steady on Monday and then followed with the news today to bolster its stock market. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a 5-year low this month. The news of a potential government cash infusion lifted the Shanghai index by 0.5% while the Shenzhen Component Index rose around 1.5%.

In other news, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy steady at its meeting Tuesday. The BOJ kept its deposit rate at minus 0.1% and kept its 10-year bond yield target at around zero percent.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $74.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.128%.

U.S. economic data due out Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report and the Richmond Fed business survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,898.25 and then at 4,925.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,841.50 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,808.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady after hitting a contract and record high Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 17,585.00 and then at 17,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,400.00 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 121 5/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 119 10/32 and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 111.19.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 111.04.5 and then at last week’s low of 110.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0940 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the January low of 1.0871 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $75.46 and then at $76.31. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $72.56 and then at last week’s low of $70.62. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were slightly up overnight. Not much new lately. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher and at contract and 12-month highs when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock market rally comes despite trader and investor risk appetite that has been dented a bit to start the new year, partly due to better economic data that has prompted lower expectations from the marketplace for U.S. interest rate cuts sooner from the Federal Reserve.

In overnight news, China kept its key interest rates unchanged at the PBOC central bank monetary policy meeting.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $73.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.107%.

U.S. economic data due out Monday is light and includes leading economic indicators.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit another contract and 12-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,900.00 and then at 4,925.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,841.50 and then at Friday’s low of 4,808.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit another contract and 12-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,600.00 and then at 17,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 17,400.00 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are up in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a five-week low Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 121 even and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 120 4/32 and then at last week’s low of 119 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a five-week low Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 111.21.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.04.5 and then at last week’s low of 110.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0950 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0871 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $75.25 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.18 and then at last week’s low of $70.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins. A late-week rally has the major U.S. stock indexes at or near 12-month highs. Risk aversion has receded despite high tensions in the Middle East. Just like the Russia-Ukraine war, it appears that after three months of the Israel-Hamas war, traders and investors have become numb to the matter, from a markets perspective.

There was no major, markets-moving news overnight, which has allowed some better risk appetite in the marketplace to end the trading week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $74.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.128%.

U.S. economic data due out Friday includes existing home sales, Treasury international capital data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and very close to the contract and 12-month high scored in December. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,841.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,800.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,746.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a contract and 12-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,350.00 and then at 17,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 17,107.25 and then at 17,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 121 even and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 119 18/32 and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 111.21.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.00.0 and then at 110.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are up a bit in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0950 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0871 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $75.25 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $72.18 and then at this week’s low of $70.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were slightly up overnight. Tepid short covering was featured. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open modestly up when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ratcheted up another notch as Pakistan launched retaliatory airstrikes inside Iran, killing at least 9 people. The strikes follow Iran’s attack Tuesday on Pakistani soil that killed two. The risk of escalation remained Thursday as Iran began a planned air defense drill from its port of Chabahar near Pakistan. Meantime, the U.S. has launched more air strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi rebel targets in Yemen.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index down a bit after hitting a four-week high Wednesday. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $72.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching around 4.09%.

U.S. economic data due out Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, new residential construction and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,823.00 and then at the contract high of 4,841.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,746.25 and then at 4,725.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 17,057.00 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,689.25 and then at 16,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 122 even and then at this week’s high of 123 3/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 120 12/32 and then at 120 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 112.01.5 and then at this week’s high of 112.18.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the January low of 111.06.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are up a bit in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0950 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0871 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.56 and then at the January high of $75.25. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $70.50 and then at the January low of $69.28. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Not much new this week. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China reported its economic growth was the slowest in decades in 2023 (save for the Covid lockdown years), amid weakening consumer confidence and the slumping property sector. China’s gross domestic product expanded by 5.2% in the fourth quarter and for the year 2023. China’s Premier Li Qiang mentioned the weak GPD data in a speech in Davos, Switzerland on Tuesday. While below market expectations, the 4Q GDP number did meet the Chinese government’s expectations for economic growth in 2023. Today’s numbers helped to pressure commodity markets, including crude oil, as China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a voracious consumer of raw commodities.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady after hitting a four-week high Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $71.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.04%.

U.S. economic data due out Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, import and export prices, the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,823.00 and then at the contract high of 4,841.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,750.00 and then at 4,725.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 17,057.00 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,753.00 and then at 16,657.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 122 even and then at this week’s high of 123 3/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 120 27/32 and then at 120 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.01.5 and then at this week’s high of 112.18.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.19.5 and then at the January low of 111.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0950 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.05 and then at this week’s high of $73.56. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at the January low of $69.28. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Not much new. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open weaker when the New York day session begins. As U.S. traders get back from a long holiday weekend (U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday.) they find elevated risk aversion in the marketplace following weekend Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, and U.S. and U.K. retaliatory air strikes in Yemen. That has helped to push the U.S. dollar index sharply higher today.

In other news, China’s central bank leaving its monetary policy unchanged disappointed those looking for more stimulus amid recent downbeat economic data from the world’s second-largest economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.012%.

U.S. economic data due out Tuesday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,841.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,772.75 and then at 4,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 17,057.00 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,753.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 16,657.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 123 even and then at last week’s high of 123 15/32. Shorter-term support lies at the January low of 121 9/32 and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in lower in U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.18.5 and then at the January high of 112.26.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 111.15.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0950 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $71.23 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly weaker when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is keener late this week as the U.S. and U.K. militaries bombed more than a dozen military sites used by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen Friday. It was a retaliatory strike using warship and submarine-launched missiles and fighter jets, U.S. officials said. Yemen’s rebel Houthis said the airstrikes killed at least five people. Gold prices spiked sharply higher on the news, while crude oil prices pushed sharply higher. The Red Sea Houthi attacks on shipping vessels have impacted global commerce. Tesla announced it is halting production of its automobiles at a German factory due to supply chain disruptions.

Meantime, China got some more dour economic news Friday as the world’s second-largest economy is sinking deeper into deflation, “spelling trouble for the whole world as demand falters,” reported Dow Jones Newswires today. China’s December consumer price index fell 0.3%, year-on-year. Meantime, China’s December exports were up 2.3%, year-on-year, while imports were up 0.2%. Those numbers were slightly better than expected. China reported its 2023 exports fell 3.6% on the year, while imports dropped 5.5% in the same period.

Following Thursday’s slightly higher-than-expected U.S. consumer price index report for December, today comes the U.S. producer price index report for December. The PPI is forecast up 0.1% from November versus an unchanged reading in November from October. The Federal Reserve has been generally pleased with cooling U.S. inflation—to the point of hinting of no more interest rate increases and possibly interest rate cuts in 2024. The Fed would like to see annual U.S. inflation rates of around 2%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are sharply up and trading around $75.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.986%.

Other U.S. economic data due out Friday includes the USDA monthly supply and demand and quarterly grain stocks reports.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the December contract high of 4,841.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,772.75 and then at 4,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 17,057.00 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 16,753.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 16,657.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 123 15/32 and then at 124 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 121 15/32 and then at last week’s low of 121 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in lower in U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.16.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 111.15.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1040 and then at the January high of 1.1078. Shorter-term support at the January low of 1.0908 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $76.18 and then at $77.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $72.90 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand and quarterly grain stocks reports. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly firmer when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have rebounded this week, following selling pressure the first week of the new year, and are now back near their contract and 12-month highs.

Traders are awaiting the U.S. data points of the week: the December consumer price index report on Thursday morning and the December producer price index report on Friday morning. U.S. inflation has cooled in recent months, which has allowed the Federal Reserve to back off on its tighter monetary policy. The CPI report is seen up 3.3%, year-on-year versus a rise of 3.1% in the November report.

In other news, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission voted Wednesday to allow bitcoin to be traded as an exchange traded fund (ETF).

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $72.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.988%.

Other U.S. economic data due out Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and very close to the recent contract and 12-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the December contract high of 4,841.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4,786.00 and then at 4,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and not far below the recent contract and 12-mont high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 17,048.05 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 16,801.57 and then at Tuesday’s low of 16,657.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 123 even and then at 124 even. Shorter-term support lies at 122 even and then at last week’s low of 121 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.09.0 and then at 112.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.28.0 and then at this week’s low of 111.15.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1031 and then at the January high of 1.1078. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0953 and then at the January low of 1.0908. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $74.24 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means their path of least resistance remains sideways to lower. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand and quarterly grain stocks reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins. Trading activity is quieter at mid-week amid no major new fundamental news.

The U.S. data points of the week will be the December consumer price index report on Thursday and the December producer price index report on Friday. U.S. inflation has cooled in recent months, which has allowed the Federal Reserve to back off on its tighter monetary policy. The CPI report is seen up 3.3%, year-on-year versus a rise of 3.1% in the November report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $72.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.994%.

U.S. economic data due out Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,804.00 and then at the December high of 4,841.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,750.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,702.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 16,906.25 and then at 17,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 16,657.75 and then at 16,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 123 even and then at 124 even. Shorter-term support lies at 122 even and then at last week’s low of 121 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.09.0 and then at 112.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 111.15.5 and then at last week’s low of 111.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at last Friday’s high of 1.1031. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0908 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $74.24 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at last week’s low of $69.28. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were slightly lower overnight. Not much new. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means their path of least resistance remains sideways to lower. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, reports said China’s central bank has indicated it may lower its reserve requirement ratio to boost lending and support economic growth, the head of the central bank’s monetary policy department told a local news agency. The PBOC official’s remark does not suggest an imminent cut but may indicate such action is on the table in the coming months, Bloomberg reported. Similar comments were made last July before the central bank reduced the reserve requirement ratio for major banks in September of last year.

The U.S. data points of the week will be the December consumer price index report on Thursday and the December producer price index report on Friday. U.S. inflation has cooled in recent months, which has allowed the Federal Reserve to back off on its tighter monetary policy. The CPI report is seen up 3.3%, year-on-year versus a rise of 3.1% in the November report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $72.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.046%.

U.S. economic data due out Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index, the U.S. international trade report and the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,803.25 and then at the December high of 4,841.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,750.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,702.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 16,811.25 and then at 16,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,600.00 and then at 16,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 123 even and then at 124 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 121 9/32 and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 112.09.0 and then at 112.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 111.15.5 and then at last week’s low of 111.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last Friday’s high of 1.1031 and then at last week’s high of 1.1078. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0908 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $74.24 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at last week’s low of $69.28. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means their path of least resistance remains sideways to lower. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins.

In weekend news, U.S. congressional leaders have agreed upon a bipartisan federal budget plan for the next year. The House and Senate now have about two weeks to pass the measure, which may not be easy.

The U.S. data points of the week will be the December consumer price index report on Thursday and the December producer price index report on Friday. U.S. inflation has cooled in recent months, which has allowed the Federal Reserve to back off on its tighter monetary policy. The CPI report is seen up 3.3%, year-on-year versus a rise of 3.1% in the November report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $71.75 a barrel. Reports said Saudi Arabia has lowered the price of its oil to some of its customers, in a signal of a weaker demand outlook. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.038%.

U.S. economic data due out Monday includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading to start 2024. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 4,760.25 and then at 4,800.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,702.00 and then at 4,675.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 16,577.25 and then at 16,737.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 16,334.25 and then at 16,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 123 7/32 and then at 124 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 121 9/32 and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.28.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.15.5 and then at last week’s low of 111.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.1031 and then at last week’s high of 1.1078. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0908 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $74.24 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly weaker overnight. A firmer U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices are bearish outside markets for the grains early today. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means their path of least resistance remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite in the marketplace is not robust this first week of 2024, amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. Also, bond yields are on the rise again, with the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield back above 4% for the first time in almost a month. That suggests the marketplace has backed off a bit on its dovish expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts in the coming months. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “Stock forecasters are on edge over weak start.”

Traders are looking ahead to Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for December. The key non-farm jobs number in the report is expected to come in up 170,000 and compares to a rise of 199,000 seen in the November report. A big miss on the consensus forecast is likely to move the markets.

In overnight news, the Eurozone consumer price index in December came in at up 2.9%, year-on-year, versus up 2.4% in the November report. Eurozone producer prices in November were reported down 8.8% year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, continuing this week’s solid rebound. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $72.50 a barrel. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.040%.

Other U.S. economic data due out Friday includes the ISM report on business services and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading to start 2024. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 4,766.50 and then at 4,800.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,700.00 and then at 4,675.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 16,587.25 and then at Wednesday’s high of 16,737.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,300.00 and then at 16,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 122 29/32 and then at 124 even. Shorter-term support lies at 121 24/32 and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.01.0 and then at 112.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.10.0 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.1004 and then at this week’s high of 1.1078. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0926 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $71.06 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week has the grain market bulls timid. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means their path of least resistance remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 4–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open a bit higher when the New York day session begins, following two sessions of solid losses. Risk appetite in the marketplace is not robust this week, amid heightened tensions in the Middle East.

Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes offered the marketplace nothing substantially new on the trajectory of Fed monetary policy. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “Fed minutes offer no timetable on cuts.”

In overnight news, China got some upbeat economic news as its Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for December came in at 50.8 versus 50.7 in November and 50.3 expected. The Caixin Services PMI was 52.9 versus 51.5 in November and 51.6 forecast. China’s Caixin Composite PMI was 52.6 compared to 51.6 in November.

Meantime, the Euro zone reported its December services PMI at 48.8 versus 48.7 in the November report. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector and above 50.0 suggests growth.

Traders are starting to look ahead to Friday’s U.S. employment situation report for December. The key non-farm jobs number in the report is expected to come in up 170,000 and compares to a rise of 199,000 seen in the November report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback following two days of solid gains. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $73.50 a barrel. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.959%.

U.S. economic data due out Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the ADP national employment report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the U.S. services PMI, the global services PMI, the monthly retail store sales index, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,800.00 and then at the contract high of 4,841.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,741.00 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 16,737.25 and then at 16,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,522.00 and then at 16,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 124 5/32 and then at this week’s high of 124 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 122 25/32 and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.19.0 and then at this week’s high of 112.26.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 111.28.0 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1004 and then at this week’s high of 1.1078. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0926 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week has the grain market bulls timid. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means their path of least resistance remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins. There is some keener risk aversion in the marketplace at mid-week as Israel is on higher alert for a military escalation with Hezbollah after one of the top leaders of Hamas was killed in a drone strike in Beirut that is widely blamed on Israel. The killing of the Hamas leader has heightened the risk of a broader Middle East conflict.

The U.S. data point of the day Wednesday is the afternoon release of the minutes from the December FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve.

Traders are starting to look ahead to Friday’s U.S. employment situation report for December. The key non-farm jobs number in the report is expected to come in up 170,000 and compares to a rise of 199,000 seen in the November report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, on follow-through strength from Tuesday’s solid gains. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $70.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.972%.

U.S. economic data due out Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the JOLTS report, domestic auto industry sales and the minutes from the last FOMC meeting.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,800.00 and then at the contract high of 4,841.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,765.50 and then at 4,743.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 16,737.25 and then at 16,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,622.50 and then at 16,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 124 even and then at this week’s high of 124 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.12.0 and then at this week’s high of 112.26.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.24.0 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1078. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $72.00 and then at this week’s high of $73.64. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.28 and then at the December low of $67.98. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mildly weaker overnight, following solid losses Tuesday. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week has the grain market bulls standing on the sidelines. Charts are now fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite in the marketplace is less robust on this first trading day of 2024. Reports say merchant ships in the Red Sea are still coming under attack from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. The U.S. Navy sunk three Houthi boats on Sunday, killing its occupants.

In other news, there was more weak economic data coming out of China, as its official purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in December from 49.4 in November. The services sector PMI was unchanged at 49.3 in December. Readings below 50.0 suggest contraction in the sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $73.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.948%.

U.S. economic data due out Tuesday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the global manufacturing PMI and construction spending.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading but not too far below last week’s contract high and high for last year. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,841.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,743.25 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a contract high and new 2023 high last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at overnight high of 17,038.50 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,758.50 and then at 16,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 124 21/32 and then at last week’s high of 125 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.26.5 and then at last week’s high of 113.12.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.00.0 and then at 111.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1078 and then at 1.1119. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0950 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $71.25 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

There was no grain futures trading overnight due to the holiday Monday. Not much new recently. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent price action in wheat markets suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are bearish for soybeans and fully bearish for meal and soybean oil, as all the soy markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation late this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and sets the stage a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,670.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 17,165.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,670.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,985.14.

The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4738.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 4841.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Wednesday’s low crossing at 4743.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4738.99.

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low, the June high crossing at 128-16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 125-23. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 128-16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 124-08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-01.

March T-notes were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low, June’s high crossing at 114.190 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.262 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the crossing at 113.140. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 114.190. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.216. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.262.

ENERGIES: February crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If February renews the rally off December’s low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $76.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $76.33. Second resistance is the November 30^th high crossing at $79.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.33. Second support is December’s low crossing at $67.98.

CURRENCIES: The March Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November’s high, the 87% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at $99.783 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.301 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $101.453. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.301. First support is the 87% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at $99.783. Second support is July’s low crossing at $98.786.

The March Euro was slightly higher overnight but remains below the 75% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.11710. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the the rally off December’s low, the 87% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.12734 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09573 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.11710. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.12734. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.10433. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09573.

Precious Metals: February gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the December 13^th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off the December 13^th low, December’s high crossing at $2152.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2046.20 would signal that the rally off the December 13^th low has come to an end. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at $2098.20. Second resistance is the December 4^th high crossing at $2152.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2046.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2024.90.

Grains: March corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month’s decline, psychological support crossing at $4.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.85 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.85 3/4. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at $4.93 3/4. First support is December’s low crossing at $4.68 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at $4.50.

March wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight and sets the stage for a fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November’s low, the 38% retracement level of the July-November decline crossing at $6.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the July-November decline crossing at $6.53. Second resistance is the August 23^rd high crossing at $6.68 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 1/4. Second support is November’s low crossing at $5.56 1/4.

March soybeans were slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off the December 12^th high, the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.43 1/2 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.43 1/2. Second resistance is the December 12^th high crossing at $13.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.87. Second support is the October 11^th low crossing at $12.82 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation late this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and sets the stage a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,627.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 17,158.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,627.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,948.44.

The March S&P 500 was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4728.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4841.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Wednesday’s low crossing at 4743.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4728.52.

INTEREST RATES 

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low, the June high crossing at 128-16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 125-23. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 128-16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 124-05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-21.

March T-notes were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low, the 87% retracement level of the crossing at 113.140 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.220 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 113.120. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the crossing at 113.140. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.219. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.220.

ENERGY MARKETS

ENERGIES: February crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December’s low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $76.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $76.62. Second resistance is the November 30^th high crossing at $79.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.60. Second support is December’s low crossing at $67.98.

CURRENCIES  

CURRENCIES: The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November’s high, the 87% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at $99.783 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.387 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $101.478. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.387. First support is the 87% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at $99.783. Second support is July’s low crossing at $98.786.

The March Euro was slightly higher overnight as it tested the 75% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.11710. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the the rally off December’s low, the 87% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.12734 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09515 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.11710. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.12734. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.10410. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09515.

GRAINS 

Grains: March corn was slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.86 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month’s decline, psychological support crossing at $4.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.86 1/2. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at $4.93 3/4. First support is this month’s low crossing at $4.68 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at $4.50.

March wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November’s low, the 38% retracement level of the July-November decline crossing at $6.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.04 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the July-November decline crossing at $6.53. Second resistance is the August 23^rd high crossing at $6.68 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.04 1/2. Second support is November’s low crossing at $5.56 1/4.

March soybeans were slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.44 1/4 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off the December 12^th high, the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.44 1/4. Second resistance is the December 12^th high crossing at $13.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.87. Second support is the October 11^th low crossing at $12.82 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open narrowly mixed when the New York day session begins. It’s been a fairly quiet trading week so far, what with the Christmas holiday on Monday and no major economic data points up to mid-week.

Israel has stepped up its offensive in Gaza, which has the international community very concerned about the heavy loss of innocent lives. The Russia-Ukraine war is close to its second year of conflict, with Ukraine stepping up its attacks on Russian military assets.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $75.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.87%.

U.S. economic data due out Wednesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report and the Richmond Fed business survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below Tuesday’s contract high and high for the year. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,834.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,800.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,743.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract high and new yearly high Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 17,111.25 and then at 17,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,964.50 and then at week’s low of 16,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near last week’s four-month high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 124 30/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at 124 even and then at last week’s low of 123 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s four-month high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 113.04.5 and then at 113.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.16.0 and then at last week’s low of 112.06.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher and hit a 4.5-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1150 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1048 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $76.18 and then at $77.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. Not much new recently. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent price action in wheat markets suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are bearish for soybeans and fully bearish for meal and soybean oil, as all the soy markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins. Look for quieter trading on this last business day before the Christmas holiday next Monday.

The U.S. economic data point of the day is the personal income and outlays report for November and its personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation numbers, which the Federal Reserve watches closely. The core PCE index is expected to be up 3.3%, year-on-year compared to up 3.5% in the October report.

The Houthi missile and drone attacks on random ships in the Red Sea have prompted renewed inflation worries. And there are also worries about drought impacting the Panama Canal. Barrons today reported “ocean freight rates are surging, putting pressure on companies that rely on cheap shipping.” A U.S.-led military contingent is set to guard the Red Sea shipping route, but major shippers are leery that the contingent can stop every attack.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $74.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.867%.

Other U.S. economic data due out today includes durable goods orders, new residential sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract high and yearly high early Wednesday. However, prices then scored a bearish “key reversal” down, which is one clue that a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,830.75 and then at 4,850.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,743.25 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday scored a bearish “key reversal” down, which is one clue that a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,000.00 and then at the contract high of 17,073.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,758.50 and then at 16,600. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a four-month high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 124 30/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at 124 even and then at this week’s low of 123 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a four-month high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.04.5 and then at 113.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.16.0 and then at this week’s low of 112.06.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the November high of 1.1070 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0935. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $75.37 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $72.44 and then at this week’s low of $70.99. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were near steady overnight. Look for quieter pre-holiday trading today. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent price action in wheat markets suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are bearish for soybeans and fully bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes on Wednesday hit new contract highs and highs for the year. However, prices then backed off sharply and scored bearish “key reversals” down on the daily bar charts. That’s one technical clue that near-term market tops are in place. However, solid gains in the indexes to end this week would quickly render the bearish chart patterns moot.

The sell off in the U.S. stock market Wednesday afternoon may have been due in part to worries about rising inflation as major shipping companies are now re-routing their vessels around one major shipping route—the Red Sea—due to Houthi attacks on ships. The new routes are much longer and will likely raise the cost of consumer goods. Reads a Dow Jones Newswire headline today: “Higher costs due to Red Sea disruptions expected to weigh on consumers.” There are also worries that a major U.S. military presence in the Middle East, including the Red Sea, could find the U.S. in a direct military conflict with Iran, which backs the Houthis. 

In other news, China’s media has reported China’s central bank is set to cut deposit rates for its state-owned banks on Friday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $74.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.888%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, the final estimate of third-quarter GDP, including the inflation indexes, leading economic indicators, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract high and yearly high on Wednesday. Prices Wednesday scored a bearish “key reversal” down, which is one clue that a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,800.00 and then at the contract high of 4,830.75. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,743.25 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday scored a bearish “key reversal” down, which is one clue that a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,000.00 and then at Wednesday’s contract high of 17,073.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,758.50 and then at 16,600. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 124 24/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.31.5 and then at 113.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.06.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.1053 and then at the November high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0935 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $75.37 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at this week’s low of $70.99. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Look for quieter pre-holiday trading the rest of this week. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and fully bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes this week have hit new highs for the year. Trading activity is quieter this week as the holiday season approaches.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $75.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.888%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, existing home sales, the consumer confidence index, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and Q3 international transactions and current account data.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading but hit a contract high and yearly high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 4,824.25 and then at 4,850.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,787.75 and then at this week’s low of 4,769.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower but hit a contract high and high for the year overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 17,046.00 and then at 17,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,802.25 and then at 16,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and near last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 124 9/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and not far below last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 112.28.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.06.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1029 and then at last week’s high of 1.1053. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0935 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $76.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at this week’s low of $70.99. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. Quieter pre-holiday trading so far this week. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly higher when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes this week have hit new highs for the year. Trading activity is quieter early this week as the holiday season approaches.

In overnight news, the U.S. military is leading a coalition of around a dozen other countries to protect shipping vessels from missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea, which is a major global shipping route.

In other news, the Eurozone November consumer price index was reported up 2.4%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $72.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.909%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, new residential construction and Treasury international capital data.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract high and yearly high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,802.25 and then at 4,835.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,769.50 and then at 4,725.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and near this week’s contract high and high for the year in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,000.00 and then at 17,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 16,802.25 and then at 16,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and near last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 124 9/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and not far below last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 112.28.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.06.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at last week’s high of 1.1053. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0935 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $74.26 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at last week’s low of $67.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Quieter pre-holiday trading so far this week. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets still suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, December 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly higher when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes are near their highs for the year. Trading activity is quieter to start the week as the holiday season approaches.

In overnight news, shipping companies have stopped routing their ocean vessels through the Red Sea because of the recent missile attacks by Houthi rebels. That has put a slight bid into the crude oil markets.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $71.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.902%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the NAHB housing market index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and near last week’s contract high and yearly high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,791.25 and then at 4,825.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,746.25 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and near last week’s contract high and high for the year in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,887.25 and then at 17,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,628.00 and then at 16,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and near last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 124 9/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 123 1/32 and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and not far below last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 112.28.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.08.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at last week’s high of 1.1053. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $72.46 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at last week’s low of $67.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets still suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open modestly higher when the New York day session begins. The indexes are near this week’s contract highs and highs for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a record high Thursday. The stock and financial markets are still basking in the glow of Wednesday’s surprisingly dovish U.S. monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve.

In overnight news, China got some more downbeat economic data Friday. Investment and consumer spending in November increased less than expected. New home sales fell at a faster pace in November, too. After the disappointing economic data, China’s central bank kept its key policy rates unchanged, but did pump 800 billion yuan ($112 billion) of liquidity into the banking system. That was the biggest-ever central bank infusion of one-year loans to banks.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $71.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.92%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and capacity utilization, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes (PMI).

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract high and yearly high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,791.25 and then at 4,825.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,746.25 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and near this week’s contract high and high for the year in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,885.00 and then at 17,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 16,628.00 and then at 16,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and near this week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 123 30/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 123 1/32 and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit higher and not far below this week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.28.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 112.08.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s good gains. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1053 and then at the November high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.0919 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $72.46 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at this week’s low of $67.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to narrowly mixed overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets still suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher, at new contract highs and new highs for the year, when the New York day session begins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a record-high close Wednesday.

The marketplace got a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve Wednesday. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged, the committee and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pivoted from their heretofore hawkish rhetoric of a tight monetary policy and toward loosening policy, including future interest rate cuts. The Fed’s “dot plots” now indicate three interest rate cuts (totaling 0.75%) in 2024. Markets cheered the Fed news as the U.S. stock indexes hit new highs for the year, gold prices soared back above $2,000, the U.S. dollar index dropped sharply and Treasury yields declined. The benchmark 10-year note yield dropped below 4%. The now much-improved risk appetite in the general marketplace should work to support further gains in equities and commodity markets for at least the near term. A Barrons headline today reads: “Markets rejoice as Fed doves take flight….”

The Bank of England held its monetary policy steady at is regular meeting today. The European Central Bank was meeting as of this writing.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower, on follow-through selling pressure from Wednesday’s sharp losses. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $71.00 a barrel, after hitting a 5.5-month low Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.974%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, retail sales, import and export price indexes, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a contract high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 4,781.25 and then at 4,800.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,725.00 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and hit another contract high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 16,885.00 and then at 17,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,600.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 16,576.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 122 25/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 121 23/32 and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.23.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.31.5 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the November high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0919 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 5.5-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $71.96 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.54 and then at this week’s low of $67.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets still suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

U.S. stock indexes are headed for slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

On tap today is the U.S. producer price index report for November, which is seen coming in at up 0.1% from the previous month and compares to the 0.5% decline seen in the October PPI report. Tuesday’s consumer price index report for November came in very close to market expectations.

Focus is now on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The marketplace consensus is that the FOMC will leave U.S. interest rates unchanged. However, it’s also expected the FOMC statement and Powell at his press conference will still lean hawkish by saying the inflation fight is not yet finished. Still, many market watchers expect the Fed to cut U.S. interest rates by mid-year in 2024.

In other news, China’ annual economic conference produced no significant stimulus measures to boost the world’s second-largest economy. That put Asian investors in downbeat moods at mid-week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $68.50 a barrel after hitting a 5.5-month low overnight. The down-trending crude oil market is casting a pall over much of the raw commodity sector. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.187%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a 4.5-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high of 4,738.50 and then at 4,775.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,652.00 and then at 4,625.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a contract high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,700.00 and then at 16,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,500.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 16,396.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 120 9/32 and then at the December high of 120 25/32. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at this week’s low of 118 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.31.5 and then at the December high of 111.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 110.07.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.31.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0875 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0770 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 5.5-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at this week’s high of $71.96. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.71 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. The bearish crude oil market is weighing on the grains. Charts are overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rally in wheat markets suggest market bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

U.S. stock indexes are headed for slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, reports said a missile struck a Norwegian ship in the Red Sea and was fired by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. Oil prices showed little reaction.

The U.S. economic data point of the day is the consumer price index report for November, which is expected to come in at up 3.1% compared to the October CPI rising 3.2%. The “core” CPI, excluding food and energy, is seen coming in up 4.0%, year-on-year, versus a rise of 4.0% in the October report. Recent economic data from the world’s major economies has generally shown cooling inflation.

The two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve begins today and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The marketplace consensus is that the FOMC will leave interest rates unchanged. However, it’s also expected the FOMC statement and Powell at his press conference will still lean a bit hawkish by saying the inflation fight is not yet finished.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $71.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.193%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the monthly Treasury budget statement and real earnings.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a four-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,700.00 and then at the July high of 4,738.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,652.00 and then at 4,625.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a contract high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 16,492.50 and then at 16,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,256.25 and then at 16,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at the December high of 120 25/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 118 31/32 and then at this week’s low of 118 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the 111.00.0 and then at the December high of 111.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.09.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.31.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at last week’s low of 1.0770. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $72.50 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at last week’s low of $68.80. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were slightly firmer overnight. Not much new. Charts are overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rally in wheat markets suggest market bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders are awaiting today’s U.S. employment situation report for November—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The November non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 190,000 versus a rise of 150,000 in the October report. Look for higher volatility in the marketplace if the non-farm jobs number is a big miss to the upside or downside.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $70.50 a barrel. Prices on Wednesday hit a five-month low. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.185%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,657.75 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,594.00 and then at 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,271.75 and then at 16,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 15,920.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a nearly three-month high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 120 4/32 and then at this week’s high of 120 25/32. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a downside correction after hitting a more-than-three-month high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.01.0 and then at this week’s high of 111.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 110.12.0 and then at this week’s low of 110.03.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.0897 and then at this week’s high of 1.0945. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a five-month low Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.29 and then at $72.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $68.80 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts are overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rally in wheat markets suggest market bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar chart. Seasonal studies are friendlier for the grains now that the U.S. harvest of corn and soybeans has ended.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China reported its November exports were up 0.5%, year-on-year, while its imports were down 0.6% in the period. The exports were just slightly better than expected, while the imports were a bit less than expected.

Traders are starting to look ahead to the U.S. employment situation report on Friday morning—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The November non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 190,000 versus a rise of 150,000 in the October report. Wednesday’s ADP national employment report showed a modest rise of 103,000 in November, versus expectations for a gain of around 130,000.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $70.00 a barrel. Prices on Wednesday hit a five-month low. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.151%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, monthly wholesale trade, and consumer credit.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,657.75 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,594.00 and then at 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,241.25 and then at 16,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,920.25 and then at 15,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a nearly three-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 120 25/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 119 1/32 and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a more-than-three-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.09.5 and then at 111.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 110.10.0 and then at this week’s low of 110.03.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.0897 and then at this week’s high of 1.0945. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting a five-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $71.00 and then at $72.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $69.11 and then at $58.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rally in wheat markets suggest market bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and meal as those markets are now trending down on the daily bar chart. Seasonal studies are turning friendlier for the grains now that the U.S. harvest of corn and soybeans has ended.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. A drop in government bond yields this week has put traders and investors in more upbeat moods. 

Traders are starting to look ahead to the U.S. employment situation report on Friday morning—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The November non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 190,000 versus a rise of 150,000 in the October report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $71.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.205%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the international trade in goods and services report, revised productivity and costs, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up a bit in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,657.75 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,594.00 and then at 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,220.25 and then at 16,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 15,920.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a nearly three-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 119 22/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at 118 even and then at this week’s low of 117 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.31.5 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 110.10.0 and then at this week’s low of 110.03.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.0897 and then at this week’s high of 1.0945. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $73.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rally in wheat markets begins to suggest market bottoms are in place. Technicals are neutral-bearish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have been negated. Seasonal studies are turning friendlier for the grains now that the U.S. harvest of corn and soybeans has ended.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, Moody’s credit rating agency cut its outlook on China’s credit rating amid the weakening economic growth outlook and property sector problems in the country. Moody’s currently rates China’s sovereign debt at A1. The agency expects China’s economic growth to slow to 4% annual GDP in 2024 and 2025. A Dow Jones Newswires headline today reads: “China’s colossal hidden-debt problem is coming to a head.”

The Eurozone October producer price index was reported down 9.4%, year-on-year, which was close to market expectations. Excluding food and energy, the PPI was down 0.2% annually.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $73.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.245%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI) the ISM report on business services, the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index, and the JOLTS labor turnover survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,657.75 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,594.00 and then at 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 16,055.00 and then at Monday’s high of 16,220.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,920.25 and then at 15,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 118 17/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 117 9/32 and then at last Friday’s low of 116 13/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 110.28.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 110.03.5 and then at 109.22.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0945 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0854 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the November low of $72.37 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are neutral-bearish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have been negated. Seasonal studies are turning friendlier for the grains now that the U.S. harvest of corn and soybeans has ended.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, December 4–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. 

Risk aversion is keener to start the trading week as tensions in the Middle East are on the rise. Missiles fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels struck three commercial ships Sunday in the Red Sea, while a U.S. warship shot down three drones in self-defense, the U.S. military said. The Iranian-backed Houthis claimed two of the attacks. Meantime, Israel has resumed its military offensive in the Gaza strip.

The price of safe-haven gold hit a record high overnight, with February Comex futures hitting an intra-day new high of $2,152.30 an ounce. Prices have backed down from their daily highs just ahead of the New York day session.

Bitcoin prices overnight pushed above $41,000 and to a 20-month high, on ideas U.S. regulators are taking a more favorable view of the crypto currency.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $73.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.245%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,657.75 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,594.00 and then at 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,301.00 and then at the contract high of 16,410.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 16,057.00 and then at 16,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a nine-week high Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 118 17/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at 117 even and then at Friday’s low of 116 13/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a nine-week high Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 110.28.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 110.00.0 and then at 109.22.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0961 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0880 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the November low of $72.37 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and USDA weekly crop progress reports. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are slightly bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have been negated. Seasonal studies are turning friendlier for the grains now that the U.S. harvest of corn and soybeans has ended.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian stock markets were mixed to weaker and European shares mostly firmer in overnight trading, on this first day of the last month of 2023. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, the truce between Israel and Hamas expired. Israel has resumed military operations in Gaza.

OPEC-plus has agreed to cut another 1 million barrels per day of its collective crude oil production, but Nymex crude oil prices Thursday sold off on the news.

The Euro zone November manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 44.2 versus 43.1 in October. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $76.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.338%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the global manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending and domestic auto industry sales. Fed Chairman Powell is also slated to speak at a college today.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,646.50 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,594.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 16,301.00 and then at the contract high of 16,410.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,057.00 and then at 16,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a nine-week high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 24/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at 116 even and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.15.5 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 109.22.0 and then at 109.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.1035 and then at this week’s high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0941 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $73.79. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are just slightly bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have been negated. Seasonal studies are turning friendlier for the grains, now that the U.S. harvest of corn and soybeans has ended.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, November 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly firmer openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, Eurozone inflation fell more than expected. The bloc’s November consumer price index came in at up 2.4%, year-on-year, compared to up 2.9% in October and forecasts for up 2.8% in November. A Dow Jones Newswire headline today reads: “Euro zone inflation fell more than expected, putting ECB rate cuts into view.”

Meantime, China got some more dour economic news Thursday as its November official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) slipped to 49.4 from 49.5 in October. That marks the second month in a row of the manufacturing PMI being below 50.0, which suggests contraction in the sector. China’s services PMI dropped to 49.3 in November from 50.1 in October.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $79.25 a barrel. Reports say OPEC, at its meeting today, will make additional cuts to the cartel’s collective crude oil production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.29%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, personal income and outlays that include more personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation numbers, the Chicago ISM business survey, pending home sales and monthly retail chain store sales.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer after hitting a three-month high Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,646.50 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,597.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s contract high of 16,410.25 and then at 16,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,142.50 and then at 16,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower after hitting a nine-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 117 24/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 116 17/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower after hitting a nine-week high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.15.5 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 109.29.0 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a 3.5-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1035 and then at this week’s high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0941 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $77.46 and then at Wednesday’s low of $75.67. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Technicals remain overall solidly bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are just slightly bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have been negated.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic news as its consumer confidence reading for November came in at plus 16.9 versus a reading of minus 17.8 in October. A reading of minus 16.9 was expected.

Meantime, Australia’s consumer price index in October was reported up 4.9%, year-on-year, versus up 5.6% in September. The October reading was lower than market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $77.50 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting takes place this week. Reports say there have been cartel member disagreements on whether to further cut collective crude oil production. There is now no clear marketplace consensus on what OPEC will announce regarding its overall oil production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.286% and has fallen this week.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product, preliminary corporate profits, the advance economic indicators report, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a three-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the September high of 4,648.00 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,597.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near the recent high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the July high of 16,406.50 and then at 16,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,142.50 and then at 16,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a nine-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 117 16/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 116 17/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a nine-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.14.5 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.29.0 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading but hit a 3.5-month high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1070 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0981 and then at 1.0941. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.46 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.36 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to firmer overnight. Not much new. Technicals remain overall solidly bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets are close to putting in price bottoms. Technicals are just slightly bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have stalled out.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed in overnight trading, with Asian shares mostly up and European shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Geopolitical tensions have not escalated in recent weeks, which has calmed the general marketplace and allowed risk appetite to up-tick.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $75.75 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting takes place this week. Reports say there have been cartel member disagreements on whether to further cut collective crude oil production. However, now the consensus is that at this meeting OPEC will announce another cut in its overall production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.4%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the quarterly and monthly house price indexes, the S&P Core Logic home price indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November high of 4,629.75 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,569.25 and then at 4,550.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 16,372.00 and then at the July high of 16,406.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,000.00 and then at 15,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 116 18/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at 115 even and then at the overnight low of 114 17/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the November high of 109.21.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 108.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the November high of 1.1020 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0941 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $76.73 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.79 and then at the November low of $72.37. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Technicals remain overall solidly bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets are close to putting in price bottoms. Technicals are just slightly bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have stalled out.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. From a markets perspective, there were no major geopolitical developments over the long U.S. Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Gold futures prices hit a four-week high overnight amid the slumping U.S. dollar index. A Dow Jones Newswires headline today reads: “Gold edges higher on hopes Fed’s tightening cycle may be over.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $74.25 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting takes place this week. Reports say there have been cartel member disagreements on whether to further cut collective crude oil production. A Barron’s headline today reads: “Oil prices are falling; OPEC is reaching the limits of its power.” The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.447%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes new residential sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November high of 4,629.75 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,569.25 and then at 4,550.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 16,372.00 and then at the July high of 16,406.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 16,040.00 and then at 16,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 116 even and then at last week’s high of 116 18/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 114 17/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 109.00.0 and then at last Friday’s high of 109.11.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.18.5 and then at 108.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the November high of 1.1020 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at last low of 1.0910 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $75.72 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.79 and then at the November low of $72.37. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed to lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock and financial markets close early today, due to the Thanksgiving holiday that was Thursday. Today is typically one of the quietest trading days of the year as many U.S. market participants stretch out a four-day weekend.

In overnight news, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a four-day ceasefire, with Israel agreeing to stop its military actions in Gaza, while Hamas releases some of the Israeli hostages in exchange. Risk appetite in the marketplace is up-ticked the past few weeks, as the Middle East conflict has not escalated (at least not yet) the way many market watchers thought it might.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The OPEC-plus meeting originally scheduled for this weekend has been moved back to next week, reportedly due to disagreements on whether to further cut the cartel’s collective crude oil production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.465%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMI).

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,580.50 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,520.00 and then at 4,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,173.50 and then at 16,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,837.25 and then at 15,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a two-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 116 even and then at this week’s high of 116 18/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 114 27/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 109.11.5 and then at this week’s high of 109.21.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.25.0 and then at 108.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1020 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0910 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.46 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at this week’s low of $73.79. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

There was no grain futures trading overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Not much new recently. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes this week hit multi-week highs amid better risk appetite in the marketplace. It’s a quieter trading week as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is on Thursday, and Friday is typically one of the quietest U.S. trading days of the year. Look for U.S. traders to hit the exit doors early today, to get a jump on the holiday.

The marketplace has quickly digested the minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, which were released Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC minutes said the committee members noted the risk of higher-than-expected inflation and weaker-than-expected U.S. economic growth. The FOMC minutes said more evidence is needed before the Fed shifts its stance on U.S. interest rates. The marketplace took that to mean the Fed will continue to pause on its rate hikes for a few months as it weighs incoming economic data. Markets showed little reaction Tuesday afternoon as the minutes contained no surprises.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher after hitting an 11-week low Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $76.75 a barrel. Reports said OPEC may consider more oil-production cuts when the cartel meets this coming weekend in Vienna. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.373%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,571.00 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,520.00 and then at 4,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,122.50 and then at 16,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,837.25 and then at 15,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are up and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 117 even and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 115 22/32 and then at this week’s low of 114 23/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the November high of 109.20.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.07.5 and then at this week’s low of 108.26.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1020 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.46 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $75.41 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Not much new recently. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Marketplace attitudes are more upbeat, following recent U.S. inflation reports that came in tamer than expectations. The consumer and producer price index reports for October fell into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see the Federal Reserve halt its interest-rate-tightening cycle. More Fed watchers now believe the central bank will continue its pause on raising interest rates. The U.S. stock indexes rallied to multi-week highs this week in the wake of tamer U.S. inflation data. No more Fed rate hikes would mean less chance for an economic recession, lower borrowing costs and better consumer demand for goods and services. Stock market bulls are now looking for a seasonal Santa Claus rally heading into the holidays.

It’s a quieter trading week as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is on Thursday, and Friday is typically one of the quietest U.S. trading days of the year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower and hitting an 11-week low overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $77.50 a barrel. Reports said OPEC is considering more oil-production cuts. The cartel will meet this coming weekend in Vienna. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.414%. A Dow Jones Newswires headline today reads: “Bonds could be the star asset class of 2024.”

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, existing home sales and the FOMC minutes.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,571.00 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,520.00 and then at 4,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading but hit a four-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 16,122.50 and then at 16,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,837.25 and then at 15,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up and hit a seven-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 116 16/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 114 23/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the November high of 109.20.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 108.26.5 and then at 108.14.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady and hit an 11-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1020 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0955 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.46 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $75.41 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were a bit firmer in overnight trading. Not much new recently. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. It will likely be a quieter trading week as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is on Thursday and Friday is typically one of the quietest U.S. trading days of the year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting an 11-week low. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $77.00 a barrel. Reports said OPEC is considering more oil-production cuts. The cartel will meet this coming weekend in Vienna. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.467%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes leading economic indicators.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A minor bullish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November high of 4,541.25 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 16,049.50 and then at 16,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,800.00 and then at 15,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 116 5/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at 114 10/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the 109.10.0 and then at the November high of 109.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.19.0 and then at 108.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are up and hit an 11-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0925 and then at 1.0882. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a four-month low last week. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $75.65 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It’s been an extra important trading week that is just winding down. U.S. inflation data was tamer, as was that from the U.K. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Global inflation fight turns a corner.” Trader and investor risk appetite was boosted this week, evidenced by the U.S. stock indexes hitting multi-week highs. After the tame U.S. inflation data earlier this week, the marketplace now expects the Federal Reserve has finished its interest-rate-increase cycle. There are growing notions the Fed will even lower interest rates in the spring.

In overnight news, the Euro zone October consumer price index was reported up 2.9%, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $74.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.406%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes new residential sales.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and near this week’s two-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,541.25 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady after hitting a 3.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,049.50 and then at 16,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,700.00 and then at 15,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 116 5/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 114 28/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 109.20.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.02.5 and then at Thursday’s low of 108.19.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0950 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a corrective bounce from Thursday’s shellacking that pushed prices to a four-month low. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at Thursday’s high of $76.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $72.16 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. Not much new in the grains this week. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, November 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to steady to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins, after hitting multi-week highs on Wednesday. Risk appetite in the marketplace has up-ticked this week after tamer U.S. inflation reports were released that suggest the Federal Reserve is done with its interest-rate-increase cycle. Also, several weeks into the Israel-Hamas war, there has so far been no major involvement from other countries, including the U.S. and Iran. However, that situation remains very uneasy.

In other news, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met Wednesday afternoon during the APEC Summit in San Francisco to discuss various geopolitical, trade, and economic issues. Both leaders recognized the need for cooperation to stabilize those issues. Biden aimed to ease tensions with China without appearing weak on the matter. Xi sought foreign investment and export markets to counter China’s economic challenges, including a real-estate crash and excessive debt.

A stopgap spending measure to avoid a U.S. government shutdown on Friday and fund the government into early 2024 was agreed upon by the U.S. Congress and is now headed to President Biden’s desk, allowing U.S. lawmakers to prepare for negotiations on full-year appropriations between the two chambers. Biden is expected to sign the measure into law.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $76.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.496%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey and Treasury international capital data.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down after hitting a two-month high Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,541.25 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,465.00 and then at 4,430.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down a bit after hitting a 3.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,049.50 and then at 16,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,700.00 and then at 15,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 115 24/32 and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at 114 even and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.12.5 and then at 109.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 108.14.0 and then at 108.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0946 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at this week’s high of $79.77. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the November low of $74.91 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were down in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Not much new this week. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins, following strong gains posted Tuesday that pushed the indexes to multi-week highs.

Trader and investor attitudes are more upbeat at mid-week following Tuesday morning’s U.S. consumer price index report for October came in at up 3.2%, year-on-year. CPI was forecast at up 3.3%, year-on-year, versus a gain of 3.7% in the September report. The core CPI rate was up 4.0% in October, compared to the consensus forecast of up 4.1% and up 4.1% in the September CPI report. This data fell into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see the Federal Reserve halt its interest-rate-tightening cycle. U.S. Treasury yields dropped on the CPI data and the U.S. dollar index sold off sharply. The U.S. stock indexes rallied strongly on the CPI news.

The U.K. also got some better inflation news at mid-week. Consumer prices were 4.6% higher in October, year-on-year, following a rise of 6.7% in September. The October rise in CPI was the slowest in the U.K. in two years. Some analysts are now saying the better U.K. inflation data will end the Bank of England’s interest-rate-increase cycle.

In other overnight news, China got some slightly better-than-expected economic data when its industrial output for October was reported up 4.6%, year-on-year, versus expectations for a rise of 4.3%.

On tap today, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to meet during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. The White House wants a resumption of U.S./China military communications. Iran is also on the agenda, including the question of Iran’s nuclear program. A potential thawing of heretofore icy U.S.-China relations also has traders and investors with more upbeat attitudes this week.

U.S. lawmakers are once again scrambling to pass a measure to fund the federal government. This time the deadline is midnight Friday. This is “old hat” for the marketplace and markets are so far not reacting much to a potential U.S. government shutdown. U.S. congressional leaders are presently working on a plan to avert the shutdown.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer after careening to a nine-week low on Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $77.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.469%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the producer price index report, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,550.00 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up and hit a 3.5-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,000.00 and then at 16,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,800.00 and then at 15,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, after hitting a six-week high overnight and posting strong gains Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 115 24/32 and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at 114 even and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.10.0 and then at 109.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.16.0 and then at 108.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading following strong gains Tuesday that pushed prices to a 2.5-month high. Bulls now have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0946 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.77 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.21 and then at the November low of $74.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer in overnight trading. Better risk appetite in the marketplace this week is encouraging the speculative grain market bulls to enter the markets on the long side. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has slowly crept back into the general marketplace recently, as there has been no major military escalation in the Israel-Hamas war, at least from the markets’ point of view.

The U.S. data point of the week comes Tuesday with the release of the consumer price index report for October. CPI is forecast up 3.3%, year-on-year, versus a gain of 3.7% in the September report. The core CPI rate is seen up 4.1% versus 4.1% seen in the September report.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will meet Wednesday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. The White House cited a resumption of U.S./China military communications as a priority. Iran is also on the agenda, including the question of Iran’s nuclear program. A potential thawing of heretofore icy U.S.-China relations also has traders and investors with more upbeat attitudes this week.

U.S. lawmakers are once again scrambling to pass a measure to fund the federal government. This time the deadline is midnight Friday. This is “old hat” for the marketplace and markets are so far not reacting much to a potential U.S. government shutdown.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.62%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index and real earnings. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,450.00 and then at 4,475.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at 4,375.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,612.75 and then at 15,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,465.25 and then at 15,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 114 1/32 and then at last week’s high of 115 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 112 12/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last Friday’s high of 107.29.5 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 107.11.5 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways-to-higher for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at the November high of 1.0819. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0727 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $76.21 and then at the November low of $74.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower in overnight trading. Not much new early this week. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has been slowly creeping back into the general marketplace recently, as there has been no major military escalation in the Israel-Hamas war, at least from the markets’ point of view.

On tap this week, U.S. President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will meet Wednesday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. The White House cited a resumption of U.S./China military communications as a priority. Iran is also on the agenda, including the question of Iran’s nuclear program.

U.S. lawmakers are once again scrambling to pass a measure to fund the federal government. This time the deadline is midnight Friday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $77.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.634%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the monthly Treasury budget statement. 

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day mov