Daily Morning Report

Hopes increase for a U.S. debt-limit extension

May 26, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff Leave a Comment

Friday, May 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor attitudes are a bit more upbeat to end the trading week, on reports that U.S. lawmakers are moving closer to a deal to raise the U.S. government’s debt limit. The Wall Street Journal reported Republican and Democrat leaders are narrowing their differences and are zeroing in on a two-year spending deal that would raise the debt limit for two years. Lawmakers are hoping to see a deal pass through Congress next week.

A feature in the marketplace Thursday was the big rally in Nvidia stock following its strong earnings report. Some stock analysts and fund managers are saying the Nvidia stock rally is a wake- up call: artificial intelligence (AI) will have a bigger impact on global society than the advent of the internet nearly 30 years ago.

The U.S. data point of the day is the personal income and outlays report for April, including the important personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price indexes. Personal income is seen up 0.4% from March. The PCE core price index is seen up 4.6%, year-on-year, which is the same as seen in the March report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a two-month high Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $72.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.783%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes durable goods orders, the advance economic indicators report and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,200.00 and then at the May high of 4,227.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,114.00 and then at the May low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly slightly in early U.S. trading and near this week’s eight-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,150.00 and then at 14,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 13,803.00 and then at this week’s low of 13,566.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a 2.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 126 16/32 and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 125 10/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a nine-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 113.12.5 and then at this week’s high of 113.30.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 112.27.0 and then at 112.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer on short covering after hitting a two-month low on Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at this week’s high of 1.0848. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0721 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $74.73 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $70.67 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Risk aversion has abated late this week and that’s a positive for the grain markets. Short covering was featured overnight. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, wheat and corn futures are all still overall bearish. However, corn bulls have momentum to suggest a market bottom is in place. It appears speculative bulls are already doing some early positioning for the first weather market scare of the growing season in corn and soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. debt-limit impasse has marketplace anxious

May 25, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff Leave a Comment

Thursday, May 25–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is getting more anxious as U.S. lawmakers and the Biden administration have not come to an agreement to extend the government debt limit. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has said the government could run out of money by June 1.

Reports said the Fitch credit-rating agency put the U.S. on watch for a possible downgrade. “Fitch still expects a resolution to the debt limit before the X-date (1 June),” the credit agency said in a report. Both Fitch and Moody’s currently rate the U.S. debt at top AAA and Aaa, respectively, while S&P ranks it at AA+ after a downgrade in 2011 amid debt-ceiling negotiations during that time.

In other overnight news, Germany’s economy, the workhorse of the European Union, slipped into recession in the first quarter. Germany’s 1Q GDP was revised to -0.3%. The German economy contracted by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer hitting another two-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $73.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.7%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the second estimate of first-quarter GDP, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,200.00 and then at the February high of 4,244.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,114.00 and then at the May low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,979.25 and then at 14,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,566.50 and then at 13,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a 2.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 127 even and then at this week’s high of 127 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 125 29/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a nine-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.12.5 and then at this week’s high of 113.30.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 113.00.0 and then at 112.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0770 and then at this week’s high of 1.0848. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $74.73 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $71.71 and then at this week’s low of $70.67. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Risk aversion in the marketplace over the U.S. debt-extension impasse and worries about rising Covid cases in China are bearish for the grains. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, wheat and corn futures are all still bearish. However, corn bulls have momentum to suggest a market bottom is in place.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Risk aversion up-ticks at mid-week

May 24, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff Leave a Comment

Wednesday, May 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. A report Tuesday afternoon said President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy have not made much progress on the U.S. debt-ceiling extension discussions. Another report said government spending is the main divisive issue between Republicans and Democrats. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week reiterated the U.S. government could run out of money by June 1 if no new debt-extension deal is reached.

In a rare development, traders and investors are shunning shorter-term U.S. Treasury bills (less than one-year maturities) over fears of a U.S. government default on that debt. This has caused high-grade U.S. corporate bonds to trade at a yield discount to U.S. Treasury bills. U.S. Treasury debt up to now had been considered the safest investment in the world.

Meantime, one report said Covid-19 is flaring up again in China and infections will get worse before they get better. The report said up to 65 million new cases a day could occur in China this summer. China government officials months ago stopped giving the public information on the Covid situation.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting another two-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $74.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.684%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the FOMC minutes and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,166.25 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,120.00 and then at 4,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting an 8.5-month high Tuesday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,979.25 and then at 14,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,628.25 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a nine-week low Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 127 24/32 and then at 128 6/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 18/32 and then at this week’s low of 126 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a nine-week low Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the this week’s high of 113.30.0 and then at 114.05.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 113.13.0 and then at this week’s low of 113.04.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0848 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $71.71 and then at this week’s low of $70.67. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Risk aversion in the marketplace over the U.S. debt-extension impasse and worries about rising Covid cases in China are bearish for the grains at mid-week. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all still bearish. HRW wheat is now also bearish.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Progress on U.S. debt-limit talks

May 23, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff Leave a Comment

Tuesday, May 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Reports said President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy on Monday afternoon had productive talks on the U.S. debt-ceiling extension. Both are scheduled to meet again this week on the matter. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has reiterated that the U.S. government could run out of money by June 1 if no new debt-extension deal is reached.

In overnight news, the Euro zone May composite purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 53.3, which was slightly less than expectations. The April reading was 54.1. A number above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

Gold prices are down today and near the recent two-month low as the U.S. dollar index surges and as Federal Reserve officials are generally still leaning hawkish on U.S. monetary policy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a two-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $72.20 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.72%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, and new residential sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the May high of 4,227.25 and then at the February high of 4,244.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,186.50 and then at 4,161.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early U.S. trading after hitting an 8.5-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,000.00 and then at 14,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 13,794.25 and then at 13,628.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a nine-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 126 28/32 and then at Monday’s high of 127 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 9/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a nine-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.17.0 and then at Monday’s high of 113.30.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 113.00.0 and then at 112.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0848 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at the May low of 1.0778 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $73.89 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $70.67 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Short covering was featured Monday. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all still bearish. HRW wheat is now also bearish. Seasonal price studies at present favor the grain market bears. Weather in the U.S. Midwest remains generally bearish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. debt-limit talks coming down to the wire

May 22, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff Leave a Comment

Monday, May 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward near steady openings when the New York day session begins. In focus again this week are the U.S. debt-ceiling extension talks that have so far produced no concrete results. President Biden and House leaker McCarthy are scheduled to meet on the matter today. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said early June is a “hard deadline” for the U.S. government needing its debt limit increased in order to avoid defaulting on some of its financial obligations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.663%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday, but the data release pace picks up fast on Tuesday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a 3.5-month high Friday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the February high of 4,244.00 and then at 4,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,161.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,120.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early U.S. trading on profit taking after hitting an 8.5-month high Friday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,960.25 and then at 14,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,628.25 and then at 13,474.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a nine-week low Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 128 6/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 126 26/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 114.05.0 and then at 114.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 113.11.0 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer on short covering after hitting a six-week low early on today. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at last week’s high of 1.0926. Shorter-term support is seen at today’s low of 1.0778 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $73.89 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.67 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all bearish. HRW wheat is still bullish. Seasonal price studies at present favor the grain market bears. Weather in the U.S. Midwest remains generally bearish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. stock index bulls gain power this week

May 19, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, May 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Stock market bulls are having a good week. The Nasdaq index is at an 8.5-month high and the S&P 500 stock index hit a 3.5-month high overnight. Trader and investor sentiment has been lifted as it appears the U.S. Congress and the Bident administration will come to an agreement to raise the U.S. government’s debt ceiling and avoid a default on its obligations. Matters such as the inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve, which has been a historical signal of impending economic recession, and the banking turmoil have moved to the back burner of the marketplace—at least for now.

In overnight news, Japan’s Nikkei stock index hit a 33-year high and has risen 18% so far this year. Part of the reason for the rally in Japanese shares is that Warren Buffet last month said he has more Japanese stocks in Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio than any other country, save for the U.S. “Japan looks cheap,” said a Wall Street Journal article.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a seven-week high Thursday. The apparent U.S. debt extension agreement and a still-hawkish Federal Reserve are boosting the greenback. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $72.75 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.646%. Bond yields have risen this week.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a 3.5-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the February high of 4,244.00 and then at 4,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,161.25 and then at this week’s low of 4,120.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit an 8.5-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,000.00 and then at 14,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 13,628.25 and then at Wednesday’s low of 13,474.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit weaker and hit a nine-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 128 even and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 127 even and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 114.24.0 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 113.27.5 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher on short covering after hitting a six-week low in overnight trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0926 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0778 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $73.89 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight on tepid short covering. Bulls have faded badly this week. Corn and soybeans are well oversold, on a near-term technical basis, and due for corrective bounces soon. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all bearish. HRW wheat is still bullish. Seasonal price studies at present favor the grain market bears. Weather in the U.S. Midwest remains generally bearish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Better risk appetite late this week

May 18, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, May 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins, following their good gains Wednesday. Trader and investor risk appetite has up-ticked late this week. The U.S. debt-limit extension talks are reportedly going better. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have both made upbeat comments on getting a deal done before June 1. Reads a Barrons headline today: “Debt ceiling optimism brings markets back to life. It’s not without risks.” The story details that while the debt matter getting fixed is a positive, the potential negatives are still lingering, including a still-hawkish Federal Reserve, recession concerns, and U.S. and European banking jitters.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and at a seven-week high. The greenback bulls have momentum. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $72.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.593%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the May high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4,244.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,150.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,111.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit an eight-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,750.00 and then at 13,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 13,474.25 and then at this week’s low of 13,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 129 21/32 and then at this week’s high of 130 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at 128 even and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 115.03.0 and then at this week’s high of 115.18.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the May low of 114.10.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading fast. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0926 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $73.89 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Bulls have faded badly this week. Corn and soybeans are now well oversold, on a near-term technical basis, and due for corrective bounces soon. Buying call options in corn and/or soybeans at present seems like a good weather market strategy, heading into the key growing season in the U.S. for both. More years than not there is a weather market scare in the summertime. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all bearish. HRW wheat is still bullish. Seasonal price studies at present favor the grain market bears. Weather in the U.S. Midwest remains generally bearish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Possible progress on U.S. debt-limit talks

May 17, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is a bit keener at mid-week. The U.S. debt-limit extension talks held Tuesday afternoon were upbeat. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy named top emissaries to negotiate a deal to avert an unprecedented national default. Biden cut short an upcoming overseas trip in hopes of closing an agreement before a June 1 deadline.

The marketplace continues to monitor comments made this week by Federal Reserve officials. While their opinions have been mixed regarding continuing to tighten U.S. monetary policy or to pause, traders and investors generally view their collective remarks as still leaning slightly hawkish.

In overnight news, the Euro zone April consumer price index came in at up 7.0%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $71.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.528%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential construction and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,156.25 and then at last week’s high of 4,173.25. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,111.75 and then at the May low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and not far below Tuesday’s eight-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,554.50 and then at 13,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,350.00 and then at last week’s low of 13,202.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130 24/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 128 22/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.18.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 114.23.0 and then at 114.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0926 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $71.79 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $69.41 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Bulls are fading at mid-week. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all bearish. HRW wheat is solidly bullish. Seasonal price studies at present favor the grain market bears. Weather in the U.S. Midwest remains generally bearish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. debt-limit talks Tuesday

May 16, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, May 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian stock markets were mixed overnight and European shares were mixed but mostly lower. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Focus today is on the scheduled U.S. debt-limit extension talks. Congressional leaders and President Biden will likely meet at the White House. The U.S. government could run out of money as soon as June 1.

In overnight news, China, the world’s second-largest economy, got a generally downbeat data dump Tuesday. Industrial production rose 5.6%, year-on-year, in April–short of market expectations for a 10.1% growth rate. Industrial production rose 3.9%, year-on-year in March. Fixed asset investment was also lower than expected at 4.7%, year-on-year, compared to expectations of up 5.2%. Chinese electricity output fell in March by 8.2%, year-on-year. Aluminum output weakened in March and steel output has been declining. Gas output for March also declined as did coal mine production.

The Eurozone reported its first-quarter GDP at up 0.1% from the fourth quarter and up 1.3%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

The International Energy Agency has raised its 2023 global crude oil demand by 100,000 barrels per day, to 102 million barrels per day.

The U.S. data point of the day is the April retail sales report, which is expected to come in at up 0.8% from March and compares to the 1.0% decline seen in the March sales report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.472%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and retail chain store sales indexes, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,173.25 and then at the May high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,111.75 and then at the May low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below the recent eight-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 13,350.00 and then at last week’s low of 13,202.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 130 24/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 129 18/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.20.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 115.01.5 and then at 114.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last Friday’s high of 1.0958 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0867 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.79 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $69.41 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight, on corrective pullbacks from Monday’s gains. The “Turnaround Tuesday” phenomenon in the grains is at work today. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all still bearish. HRW wheat is solidly bullish.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. debt-limit talks in the spotlight

May 15, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, May 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

Focus this week is on the U.S. debt-limit extension talks between the White House and Congress. Reports said congressional leaders and President Biden will likely meet Tuesday. The U.S. government could run out of money as soon as June 1. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said over the weekend that progress is being made between Democrats and Republicans, in order to avoid a financially catastrophic U.S. government default on its debt obligations.

In overnight news, China’s central bank Monday said China’s economic growth in the second quarter will rebound sharply and that inflation levels will stay low due to less demand. In other news, Euro zone March industrial production fell 1.4%, year-on-year, which was more than forecast. The European Union sees Euro zone annual inflation at up 5.8% in 2023, up from a 5.6% rise in its previous forecast.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $70.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.485%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,173.25 and then at the May high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,111.75 and then at the May low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,494.25 and then at 13,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 13,202.75 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 24/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at last week’s low of 129 18/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.20.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 115.01.5 and then at 114.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer after hitting a seven-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0958 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $71.78 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.41 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher to solidly higher overnight, on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. A very shaky Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal that could collapse at any time is apparently turning more bullish for the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and crop progress reports. The technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all bearish. HRW wheat is solidly bullish.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Risk appetite not keen to end trading week

May 12, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, May 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is not robust to end the trading week. Regional banking turmoil and the specter of the U.S. government running out of money by June 1 loom over the marketplace. Reports said a planned meeting between President Biden and congressional leaders set for today has been pushed into next week.

There are also growing concerns about a U.S. and/or global economic recession. News out of China adds to those concerns. Broker SP Angel reports: “China to export deflation as manufacturers overproduce into falling local demand.” Data alongside anecdotal evidence suggests the ramp-up of manufacturing, post Covid Lockdown, has been met with poor local demand. “Discounted goods will be increasingly sold into international markets, indicating a return to the export of product deflation around the world. Worse still, a proportion of Chinese workers are reported to be paid per unit produced, indicating the threat of lower production will hit local demand,” said the broker.

Copper futures prices hit a 5.5-month low overnight. Less demand for copper, a leading global commercial construction component, also hints of a slowing world economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.412%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export price indexes and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,173.25 and then at the May high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,112.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit another eight-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,600.00 and then at 13,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,202.75 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 8/32 and then at the May high of 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.07.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 115.24.0 and then at 115.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1080. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.89 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report. Trading has turned choppy in the grains this week. Generally good planting and growing weather in the U.S. Midwest is bearish for the grains. The technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are bearish. HRW wheat is bullish.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. PPI on deck Thursday a.m.

May 11, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, May 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are still monitoring the U.S. debt-limit-extension rhetoric coming from lawmakers. President Biden meets with congressional leaders again Friday, after little progress was made in a meeting earlier this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said its doubtful the Biden administration could avoid a government default without Congress agreeing on a plan to deal with the debt matter.

The U.S. data point of the day is the producer price index report for April, which is seen coming in at up 0.3% from March and compares to a drop of 0.5% in the March report, month-on-month.

The Bank of England met on its monetary policy today and raised its main interest rate by 0.25%, as expected.

In overnight news, China’s inflation fell to the lowest level in two years, as the April consumer price index rose 0.1%, year-on-year. That compares to a rise of 0.7% in the March report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.42%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4.244.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,112.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit an eight-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,650.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,202.75 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131 13/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at this week’s low of 129 18/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.00.0 and then at 116.12.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.20.0 and then at 115.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1080. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.89 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $71.04 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Trading has turned choppy in corn and soybeans. Generally good planting and growing weather in the U.S. Midwest is bearish for the grains. The technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are bearish. HRW wheat is bullish. The price spread between HRW and SRW is at a record high.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. CPI on deck Wednesday a.m.

May 10, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. data point of the week is Wednesday morning’s April consumer price index report, which is expected to come in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, which would be the same as reported in the March CPI. The April core CPI is forecast up 5.5% versus up 5.6% in the March report.

Meantime, President Biden on Tuesday afternoon met with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders to discuss raising or suspending the U.S. debt ceiling. No agreement was reached but the lawmakers and the president will meet again Friday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently said the U.S. government could run out of money by June 1 if the debt ceiling is not raised. As the month of May winds down and if no U.S. debt extension is agreed upon, general marketplace anxiety will ratchet up.

In other news, China is expanding its gold reserves and may be abandoning the U.S. dollar. Nigel Green of deVere Group says such may be occurring after news that China’s gold reserves increased by 8.09 tons in April. Total gold stockpiles in China reached 2,076 tons after that nation added 120 tons in the five months through March. “Historically, China has been a major buyer of U.S. Treasuries, but this has seen a marked cooling off as Beijing swaps them out in favor of gold.”

Green said this strategic move will limit China’s dependence on the U.S. dollar, as trade and political relations with the U.S. deteriorate. “Buying gold rather than dollars may also signal moves by China that it is eventually seeking to replace the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Building stocks of the precious metal and allowing the Chinese yuan to be traded freely would weaken the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.501%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4.244.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,150.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131 13/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 129 18/32 and then at the May low of 129 2/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.27.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at 114.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1080 and then at the April high of 1.1129. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0966 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A bullish V-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.78 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $71.04 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker again overnight. Bulls are fading some more this week. Generally good planting and growing weather in the U.S. Midwest is bearish for the grains. The technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are bearish. HRW wheat has turned bullish.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. debt-limit talks in focus Tuesday

May 9, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, May 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trading has turned choppy and sideways in the stock indexes.

President Biden today meets with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders to discuss raising or suspending the U.S. debt ceiling. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers last week the U.S. could default on its debt as early as June 1 if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time. No progress at today’s meeting would likely cause at least a bit of marketplace anxiety.

The U.S. data point of the week is Wednesday morning’s April consumer price index report, which is expected to come in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, which would be the same as reported in the March CPI. The April core CPI is forecast up 5.5% versus up 5.6% in the March report. A Federal Reserve banking lender survey released Monday showed bankers have curtailed loans to customers, which is likely to help tame inflation.

In other news Bitcoin prices are tumbling on reported blockchain network congestion that caused Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, to temporarily halt withdrawals.

Reports said China’s imports dropped 7.9% in April, which is a much larger decline than expected. China’s exports rose 8.5%–a bit stronger than forecasters expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $72.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.488%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and retail chain store sales reports, the NFIB small business optimism index and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4.244.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,150.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131 13/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 129 26/32 and then at the May low of 129 3/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 115.27.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 115.05.0 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1080 and then at the April high of 1.1129. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0972 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A bullish V-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.69 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $71.04 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Less risk aversion in the general marketplace this week is friendlier for the grains. The technical postures for soybeans and corn futures have improved a bit lately. HRW wheat has turned slightly bullish. However, SRW wheat and soybean meal and bean oil futures remain firmly bearish.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Less risk aversion Monday

May 8, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, May 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. There is less risk aversion in the general marketplace to start the trading week. U.S. banking stocks have recovered some of their recent losses. Banking analysts will today closely scrutinize the Federal Reserve’s first-quarter Senior Loan Officer Survey, to get a gauge on how much the banking industry has pulled back in its lending practices the past few months.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.462%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index, monthly wholesale trade and the ISM semiannual report on business and the economy.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4.244.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,150.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 13/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 130 13/32 and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.27.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Friday’s low of 115.13.5 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at last week’s low of 1.0972. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. A bullish V-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $71.04 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight, on more short covering. Less risk aversion in the general marketplace early this week is friendly for the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly crop progress reports. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain bearish.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. jobs report on deck Friday

May 5, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, May 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, following losses posted every day this week. Risk aversion remains elevated to end the trading week, mainly on concerns over the health of the U.S. banking sector—especially regional banks. Reports said the U.S. government is investigating potential trader manipulation of banking stocks.

The marketplace is awaiting Friday morning’s April U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 180,000 versus a rise of 236,000 in the March report. The U.S. ADP national employment report on Wednesday came in strong, showing 296,000 jobs were created in April, almost double the forecast.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $70.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.5%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the global services PMI and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 4,167.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,062.25 and then at 4,025.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at the April low of 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 132 even and then at this week’s high of 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.12.0 and then at 116.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 116.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 115.17.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0972. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. It appears the bears are exhausted after the recent downdraft. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $71.79 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.37 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight, on short covering. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace this week has kept the grain market bulls timid. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain bearish. Generally good corn and soybean planting weather so far is bearish for the grains.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Lots going on Thursday

May 4, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, May 4–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is keener late this week following another interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve Wednesday afternoon. The 0.25% hike in the Fed Funds rate was widely expected but it was no help for the U.S. banking system, parts of which are shaky. Reports now say PacWest Bancorp, a California-based lender, is in trouble. Its stock price saw a 60% decline in after-hours trading Wednesday. The bank is reported to be considering strategic options including a sale. PacWest is much smaller in size compared to failed Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank. Still, this news is keeping U.S. banking turmoil on the front burner of the marketplace and keeping traders and investors nervous. Reads a Barrons headline today: “Powell says banking system is ‘sound and resilient;’ try telling that to PacWest investors.”

Comex gold futures prices hit a new record high of $2,085.40 an ounce overnight, on safe-haven demand.

The European Central Bank is meeting Thursday. The ECB is also expected to raise its main interest rate by a quarter-point.

The marketplace is now looking forward to Friday’s April U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 180,000 versus a rise of 236,000 in the March report. The U.S. ADP national employment report on Wednesday came in strong, showing 296,000 jobs were created in April, almost double the forecast.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices hit a 1.5-year low of $63.64 overnight but rebounded and are now a bit firmer and trading around $69.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.367%. Treasury yields have dipped this week on flight-to-quality buying amid the wobbly U.S. banking stocks.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade report, preliminary productivity and costs, the global manufacturing PMI and the monthly chain store sales index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 4,167.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,068.75 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at the April low of 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 133 even and then at 134 even. Shorter-term support lies at 132 even and then at Wednesday’s low of 131 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.25.5 and then at the contract high of 117.01.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 116.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 115.17.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0972. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and hit a 1.5-year low of $63.64 in early U.S. trading. Prices are presently trading around $68.75. It appears the bears are now exhausted, however. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of $71.79. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $67.50 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace this week is keeping the grain market bulls timid. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain fully bearish. Generally good corn and soybean planting weather so far is bearish for the grains. Dry planting weather in most of the Corn Belt reminds grain market bears of the old adage: “Plant in the dust and your bins will bust.”

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Markets jittery as FOMC meeting concluding

May 3, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion has up-ticked at mid-week, following solid losses in the U.S. stock market Tuesday, led by banking shares. After a period of calm, there are renewed worries about the U.S. banking sector, especially regional banks, whose shares dropped sharply Tuesday. Also, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned the U.S. government could be in default on some of its payments by June 1 if the debt limit is not increased. President Biden will meet congressional leaders at the White House next week to discuss the matter.

Another feature in the marketplace this week is plunging crude oil prices that hit a five-week low overnight. Concerns about slowing global economic growth have hit the crude oil market hard. Nymex crude is presently down over $2.00 on the day and trading at $69.55 a barrel. Nymex crude is presently down around $14 a barrel from the April high.

On deck today is the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is expected to raise its main U.S. interest rate (the Fed funds rate) by 0.25%. T

Said analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA in a morning email dispatch: “Today was always likely to mark the end of the U.S. central bank’s tightening cycle–not that it has explicitly signaled this–but we’ve now reached a stage in which every rate hike could have unwanted and unintended consequences. Turbulence in the banking system in March is evidence of that and the rescue of First Republic Bank by JP Morgan in recent days, and the sell-off that followed in other regional banks, suggests significant stress remains. Which begs the question, why would the Fed opt to tighten at all today when it can see that the financial system is under strain, credit conditions have tightened as a result and the lag with which monetary policy operates means they don’t yet fully understand what the full impact of their recent rate hikes has been.”

The European Central Bank also meets Thursday. The ECB is also expected to raise its main interest rate by a quarter-point. Also, on Friday comes the U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department.

The other key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.405%. Treasury yields have dipped this week on flight-to-quality buying amid the wobbly U.S. banking stocks.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the U.S. services PMI and the ISM report on business services.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4,244.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,105.50 and then at last week’s low of 4,068.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,110.25 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 132 6/32 and then at last week’s high of 132 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.00.0 and then at 116.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 115.17.5 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0972. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading fast. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.79 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace at mid-week is keeping the grain market bulls timid. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain fully bearish. Generally good corn and soybean planting weather so far is bearish for the grains. Dry planting weather in most of the Corn Belt reminds grain market bears of the old adage: “Plant in the dust and your bins will bust.”

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

FOMC meeting begins Tuesday

May 2, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, May 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. Some European markets and mainland China remained closed for a holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls are enjoying price uptrends on the daily bar charts and index prices are not far below this year’s highs.

In overnight news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned the U.S. government could be in default on some of its payments by June 1 if the debt limit is not increased. Reports said President Biden is calling congressional leaders to the White House to discuss the matter.

Traders are anxiously awaiting the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is expected to raise its main U.S. interest rate (the Fed funds rate) by 0.25%. The European Central Bank also meets Thursday. The ECB is also expected to raise its main interest rate by a quarter-point. Also, on Friday comes the U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. Corporate earnings reports continue to flow out this week, including Apple’s results.

A Barrons story today says: “Markets seem convinced the Federal Reserve will deliver one more quarter-point hike Wednesday before a lengthy pause. But investors buying into that school of thought should heed a cautionary tale from Down Under. Australia’s central bank shocked investors with a 25 basis-points hike Tuesday, also warning that more rises may be needed—sticky inflation was to blame.” The Barrons story said the marketplace thought the Reserve Bank of Australia was done raising rates after it hiked by 25 basis points in April. Two better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing reports on Monday seem to corroborate the Barrons story that more than just one quarter-point U.S. rate hike is in the cards.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone April consumer price index came in at up 7.0%, year-on-year versus up 6.9% in March. The April reading was in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $75.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.538%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, the job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) survey, and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4,244.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,150.00 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,131.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting an eight-month high Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,150.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131 26/32 and then at last week’s high of 132 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 129 2/32 and then at 128 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 115.13.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 114.10.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1066 and then at the April high of 1.1129. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0947 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last Friday’s high of $76.82 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $73.93 and then at $72.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight on short covering. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain bearish. Generally good corn and soybean planting weather so far is bearish for the grains. Growing U.S. and/or global recession fears are also keeping the grain market bulls timid at present.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Big data week lies ahead

May 1, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, May 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. Some European markets were closed for a holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls had a good week last week, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes on Friday closing at technically bullish weekly and monthly high closes.

It’s a very busy data week for traders and investors, including the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC is expected to raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.25%. The European Central Bank also meets Thursday. The ECB is also expected to raise its main interest rate by a quarter-point. Also, on Friday comes the U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. Corporate earnings reports continue to flow out this week, including Apple’s results.

In weekend/overnight news, the U.S. government took over the troubled First Republic Bank and then sold it to JP Morgan. First Republic’s demise is the second-largest U.S. bank failure ever.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $75.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.462%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing and construction spending.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the February high of 4,244.00 and then at 4,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,150.00 and then at Friday’s low of 4,131.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting an eight-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,150.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 132 4/32 and then at last week’s high of 132 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.17.5 and then at last week’s high of 115.30.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at Friday’s low of 114.17.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at 1.0947. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $76.82 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $73.93 and then at $72.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain bearish. Generally good corn and soybean planting weather so far is bearish for the grains. Growing U.S. and/or global recession fears are also keeping the grain market bulls timid at present.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. inflation data on deck Friday morning

April 28, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins, following solid gains posted Thursday that pulled the indexes out of their recent slump.

The U.S. data point of the day is the personal income and outlays report for March, which includes the closely watched PCE price index. The core PCE reading (excluding food and energy) is expected to come in at up 4.5%, year-on-year, compared to last month’s reading of up 4.6%. Also closely watched will be the employment cost index report for the first quarter, which is expected to come in at up 1.0% from the fourth quarter.

Traders and investors are already looking ahead to next week when the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets and is expected to raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.25%. The European Central Bank also meets next week. The ECB is also expected to raise its main interest rate by a quarter-point.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $75.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.477%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Chicago ISM business survey and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from solid gains seen Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,166.50 and then at the April high of 4,198.25. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,080.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, on a downside correction after strong gains posted Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the April high of 13,348.75 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 131 20/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 129 26/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 115.17.5 and then at this week’s high of 115.30.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 114.14.4 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at last week’s low of 1.0947. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after dipping to a four-week low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.83 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $73.93 and then at $72.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly higher overnight, on corrective bounces after this week’s drubbing. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain fully bearish. Generally good corn and soybean planting weather so far is bearish for the grains. Growing U.S. and/or global recession fears are also keeping the grain market bulls standing on the sidelines at present.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. 1Q GDP on deck Thursday a.m.

April 27, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is a bit better Thursday, but by no means robust, following the big drop in share price of First Republic Bank earlier this week. Also, the specter of a U.S. economic recession is moving closer to the front burner of the marketplace. It could be that the growing U.S. government debt burden and congressional wrangling regarding what to do about it are also crimping investor enthusiasm. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Banking turmoil is tip of debt iceberg.”

The U.S. data point of the day Thursday is the advance estimate of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product. GDP is seen coming in up 2.0%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. The closely watched PCE price index is expected to be up 3.7%, year-on-year, versus a rise of 3.9% in the fourth quarter.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $74.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.452%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes weekly jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded this week as a price uptrend on the daily chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 4,116.25 and then at this week’s high of 4,164.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,080.75 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,134.00 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,800.00 and then at 12,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 132 even and then at this week’s high of 132 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at 130 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 129 26/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.30.5 and then at 116.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 114.14.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at last week’s low of 1.0947. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.83 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $74.05 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The July futures contracts in grains see the technical postures for all the markets bearish. Less risk appetite in the general marketplace this week is also negative for the grains, including rising fears of a U.S. recession. Generally good corn and soybean planting weather so far is also bearish for the grains.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

First Republic Bank stock plunges; markets wobble

April 26, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Focus of stock traders this week is on the release of quarterly corporate earnings reports. So far, they have been mixed.

Traders at mid-week are buzzing about First Republic Bank’s quarterly earnings report on Tuesday that was worse than expected, including a huge outflow of deposits. Reports said the bank’s conference call on its earnings was very brief, with no questions taken from reporters. That prompted a nearly 50% drop in the bank’s share price Tuesday, including trading in the stock being halted for a while.

U.S. and/or global recession fears appear to be moving back toward the front burner of the marketplace. Diesel fuel prices in the U.S. have plunged in recent months and are about half of what they were one year ago. Such suggests a slowdown in the commercial transportation sector that could be a signal of a slowing U.S. economy. United Parcel Service (UPS) on Tuesday issued a downbeat corporate earnings report, saying “macro conditions” would likely continue to pressure its delivery volume.

In overnight news, Sweden’s central bank raised its main interest rate by 0.5%, saying inflation is still far too high.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $77.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.413%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, advance economic indicators and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded a bit this week as a price uptrend on the daily chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,135.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,164.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,091.50 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently as a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,134.00 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,800.00 and then at 12,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s good gains. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 20/32 and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 16/32 and then at Tuesday’s low of 130 30/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.30.0 and then at 116.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.16.0 and then at Tuesday’s low of 115.01.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are solidly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1114 and then at 1.1150. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at last week’s low of 1.0947. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.18 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.50 and then at $75.83. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. The July futures contracts in grains see the technical postures for all the markets bearish. Risk-off trading attitudes in the general marketplace this week are also negative for the grains, including rising fears of a U.S. recession. Focus of grain traders is also on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Marketplace growing a bit uneasy

April 25, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 25–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Focus of stock traders this week is on the release of a slew of corporate earnings reports.

Risk appetite has not been robust recently, amid worries about a “higher for longer” Fed interest rate cycle. There are still marketplace concerns about a U.S. economic recession being on the doorstep. The clues are there, including an inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Sliding diesel prices signal warning for U.S. economy.”

The banking turmoil that roiled the marketplace in March has simmered down, at least for the moment. But there are worries banking problems will resurface. A Barrons headline today says: “First Republic laid bare the extent of banking turmoil; brace for more jitters.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.443%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail reports, the monthly house price index, the Richmond Fed business survey, the consumer confidence index, and new residential sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,164.00 and then at the April high of 4,198.25. Support for active traders is seen at the April low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,070.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,134.00 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 12,925.50 and then at 12,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 132 even and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 130 30/32 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.24.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 115.01.0 and then at this week’s low of 114.14.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading, on profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1114 and then at 1.1150. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0947 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.18 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.72 and then at $75.83. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. As focus shifts from the May to the July futures contracts in grains, the technical postures for all three are more bearish. Bears have the near-term technical advantage across the board. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. stock indexes wobbly on worries of still-hawkish Fed

April 24, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The stock indexes have wobbled recently amid concerns the Federal Reserve will keep its monetary policy tighter for longer in order to ensure inflation is successfully tamped down. Focus of stock traders this week will be on the release of a slew of corporate earnings reports.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $77.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.543%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,173.50 and then at the April high of 4,198.25. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,133.50 and then at the April low of 4,096.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,200.00 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 12,925.50 and then at 12,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 130 31/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 129 26/32 even and then at the April low of 129 4/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 115.01.0 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 114.07.0 and then at the April low of 113.30.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1114 and then at 1.1150. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0947 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.07 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.72 and then at $75.83. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have lost their slight chart edge. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Recession talk heats up, but…

April 21, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are listing this week amid some heightened risk aversion. Reads one Wall Street Journal headline today: “Disappointing earnings, recession fear press stocks.” Another WSJ headline reads: “Slide in transport stocks seen as recession indicator.”

However, another business news headline early this week read: “The most highly anticipated economic recession never seen.” The headline was fitting as recent U.S. economic data has come in generally upbeat, including U.S. non-farm jobs growth above to well above 200,000 the past year. Consumer and producer price inflation have tamed the past months and are trending lower. U.S. stock index prices that are not far below 1.5-year highs and the recent rallies in corn, soybeans, HRW wheat and cattle futures certainly don’t suggest a U.S./global economic slowdown. Barring an unexpected banking turmoil flare-up or major geopolitical shock occurring in the coming months, the U.S. economy will likely have successfully attained a “soft landing” and will be set for more sustained growth in 2024.

In overnight news, the Euro zone’s flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 54.4 in March, which was slightly above market expectations. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth. However, the manufacturing PMI came in at only 45.5, which was well below market expectations. The services PMI was 56.6.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $77.25 a barrel. Oil prices have backed off recently on demand concerns amid global economic recession worries. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.524%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 4,173.50 and then at this week’s high of 4,198.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,137.00 and then at the April low of 4,096.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 13,200.00 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 12,925.50 and then at 12,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen this week’s high of 130 31/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at this week’s low of 129 4/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.31.0 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 114.07.0 and then at this week’s low of 113.30.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1038 and then at last week’s high of 1.1114. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0947 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $79.07 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.83 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to lower overnight. Grain market bulls are fading this week, amid keener risk aversion that has squelched the grain market bulls. Soybean and corn market bulls still have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have lost their slight chart edge. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way. A serious cold snap in the upper and central U.S. this weekend could produce some freeze damage to early planted crops and to wheat.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Risk appetite receding late this week

April 20, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is more elevated this week, which has helped to prompt selling pressure in much of the raw commodity sector, led by crude oil prices dropping to a three-week low overnight.

Said analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA: “We’re now at a pivotal point in the (central bank monetary policies) tightening cycle, one made all the more difficult by the mini banking crisis last month and the ripple effects it will have on credit and the economy over the course of the rest of the year. Central banks, the Fed in particular, are now at even greater risk of overtightening just as the data may show price pressures easing considerably. The fear of that not materializing will probably drive another round of rate hikes next month, after which discussions will likely be far more balanced. It’s this uncertainty that appears to be driving the most recent period of choppy trading.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $77.75 a barrel. Oil prices have backed off recently on demand concerns amid global economic recession worries. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.558%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales, and leading economic indicators. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,173.50 and then at this week’s high of 4,198.25. Support for active traders is seen at the April low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,165.75 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 12,925.50 and then at 12,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen this week’s high of 130 31/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 129 20/32 and then at this week’s low of 129 4/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 114.21.5 and then at this week’s high of 114.31.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 114.07.0 and then at this week’s low of 113.30.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1038 and then at last week’s high of 1.1114. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0947 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $78.89 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Keener risk aversion this week has squelched the grain market bulls. Soybean and corn market bulls still have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the very slight chart edge. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way. A serious cold snap in the upper and central U.S. later this week could produce some freeze damage to early planted crops and to wheat.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Risk aversion up-ticks at mid-week

April 19, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Some hawkish Fed-speak Tuesday has dampened trader and investor spirits at mid-week. Non-voting members of the FOMC argued in favor of higher U.S. interest rates for longer. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Rapahel Bostic told CNBC he would like to see one more rate hike and then hold rates above 5% for a period of time to cool down inflation. Meantime, Fed Bank of St Louis President James Bullard told Reuters recession fears are overblown and that he supports U.S. rates to rise into a 5.5-5.75% range–up from the current 4.75-5.0%. The banking turmoil of a few weeks ago settled down due in part to notions the Federal Reserve may be less hawkish due to the banking worries and the risk of a U.S. recession. The hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials may once again raise the specter of more banking problems that may come with higher interest rates. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline: “Few lenders hedged against risk of Fed rate increases.”

In overnight news, Euro zone consumer price inflation in March rose 6.9%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $79.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.616%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a two-month high Tuesday. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,198.25 and then at the February high of 4,244.00. Support for active traders is seen at the April low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,186.75 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 12,925.50 and then at 12,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 1/32 and then at this week’s high of 130 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at 128 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.14.5 and then at this week’s high of 114.31.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 114.00.0 and then at 113.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1038 and then at last week’s high of 1.1114. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0947 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a more-than-two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $81.18 and then at this week’s high of $82.71. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Keener risk aversion at mid-week has squelched the grain market bulls. Soybean and corn market bulls still have the firm chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight chart edge. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way. A serious cold snap in the upper and central U.S. later this week could produce some freeze damage to early planted crops and to wheat.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

China’s GDP better than expected

April 18, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts and not far below their highs for this year.

In overnight news, China’s economic growth in the first quarter came in better than expected at up 4.5%, year-on-year. That was above expectations for a gain of 4.0%. In the fourth quarter of 2022, China’s GDP expanded by only 2.2%, as the world’s second-largest economy was still hamstrung by Covid restrictions. In a reflection of current sentiment toward China by many Western nations, a Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “G-7 seeks to lessen economic reliance on Beijing.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.585%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, and new residential construction.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the February high of 4,244.00 and then at 4,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,148.00 and then at the April low of 4,096.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the April high of 13,348.75 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,076.75 and then at the April low of 12,925.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 130 even and then at this week’s high of 130 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 129 6/32 and then at 128 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.31.0 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 114.08.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1114 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0947 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $82.71 and then at the April high of $83.53. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Soybean and corn market bulls have the firm chart advantage and have momentum. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have regained their slight chart edge as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been restarted. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way. A serious cold snap in the upper and central U.S. later this week could produce some freeze damage to early planted crops and to wheat.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Quieter start to trading week Monday

April 17, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts and near the highs for this year.

In overnight news, China’s central bank kept its interest rates and monetary policy unchanged.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $82.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.535%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, the NAHB housing market index and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the April high of 4,189.00 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,130.00 and then at the April low of 4,096.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,255.00 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at the April low of 12,925.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 131 even and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.31.0 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 114.16.0 and then at 114.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a 12-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1114 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1000 and then at 1.0954. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the April high of $83.53 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have lost their slight chart edge as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way. A serious cold snap in the upper and central U.S. later this week could produce some freeze damage to early planted crops and to wheat.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. retail sales on deck Friday

April 14, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts.

The U.S. data point of the day will be the March retail sales report, seen coming in at down 0.5%, versus a decline of 0.4% in the February report.

In overnight news, the International Energy Agency said global crude oil demand will outstrip supply this quarter, following OPEC’s recent surprise move to cut its collective oil production.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting a 2.5-month low. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer and trading around $82.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.435%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,177.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the April low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,241.75 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,925.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 133 1/32 and then at this week’s high of 133 19/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 131 15/32 and then at 131 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 115.06.5 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a 12-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1150 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.1016 and then at 1.0954. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $83.53 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have lost their slight chart edge as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Another U.S. inflation report on deck Thursday

April 13, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Traders have mostly digested Wednesday morning’s U.S. consumer price index report for March that came in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, compared to market expectations for a rise of 5.1%. However, the core CPI number came in 0.1% higher than expected, which tempered trader/investor optimism as the trading session wore on Wednesday. On deck today is the U.S. producer price index report for March, which is forecast at unchanged from February.

In overnight news, China’s exports in March rose 14.8%, year-on-year. That was way above the 7% decline the marketplace expected. The big rise came as China’s export business to Russia and southeast Asia jumped. China’s imports dropped by 1.4% in March but were above the 5% decline expected.

Euro zone industrial production in February beat market expectations, at up 1.5% from January. A rise of 0.7% was expected.

Recent data from the world’s major economies has proven better than expected, despite many economists still predicting a global downturn. Reads a Barron’s headline today: “Recession talk has returned; why markets are shrugging.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting a 2.5-month low. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker after hitting a five-month high Wednesday, presently trading around $83.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.434%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart has at least temporarily stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,177.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the April low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has at least temporarily stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,241.75 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,900.00 and then at 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 132 24/32 and then at this week’s high of 133 19/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 131 15/32 and then at 131 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.30.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.12.0 and then at this week’s low of 115.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a 2.5-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1019 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0954 and then at this week’s low of 1.0874. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-month high on Wednesday. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $83.53 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

US CPI on deck Wednesday a.m.

April 12, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is awaiting the U.S. data point of the week with Wednesday morning’s consumer price index report for March. The CPI is expected to show an annual rise of 5.1%, compared to a rise of 6.0% in the February report. The FOMC minutes are also due out this afternoon.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $81.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.460%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the April high of 4,171.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the April low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,208.75 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 13,953.25 and then at 13,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 133 even and then at this week’s high of 133 19/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 16/32 and then at 131 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 115.31.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at 114.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the April high of 1.1019. Shorter-term support is seen at the Tuesday’s low of 1.0903 and then at this week’s low of 1.0874. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and did hit a 2.5-month high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.50 and then at the January high of $83.04. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at last week’s low of $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Focus Tuesday is on inflation

April 11, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is creeping back into the marketplace as traders and investors are gaining confidence the U.S. and European banking turmoil has passed.

In overnight news, China’s inflation eased again in March. Consumer prices were up 0.7%, year-on-year, which is the lowest rate since September of 2021. Meantime, the International Monetary Fund has warned that higher global interest rates are just transitory and that low interest rates will likely return. A Barron’s headline today reads: “The inflation wave may be cresting. What’s next for Fed rates.”

The U.S. data point of the week will be Wednesday morning’s consumer price index report for March, which is expected to show an annual rise of 5.1%, compared to a rise of 6.0% in the February report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.396%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the April high of 4,171.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the April low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the April high of 13,348.75 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at the April low of 13,953.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 133 19/32 and then at 134 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 132 6/32 and then at 132 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 115.31.5 and then at 116.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 115.12.0 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the April high of 1.1019. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0903 and then at last week’s low of 1.0835. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $81.81 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Focus of grain traders is now on weather in the U.S. Midwest and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Quieter start to trading week Monday

April 10, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a calmer start to the trading week, following a three-day holiday weekend for most traders and investors. The U.S. Labor Department’s March jobs report issued Friday morning came in about as expected, showing a non-farm payrolls rise of 236,000 jobs versus a gain of 311,000 in the February report. Still, Friday’s jobs numbers fall into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks, who want to see further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $81.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.383%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,171.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,200.00 and then at last week’s high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 13,953.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 134 even and then at the contract high of 134 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 132 16/32 and then at 132 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 117.01.5 and then at 117.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.16.0 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at last week’s high of 1.1019. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at last week’s low of 1.0835. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $81.81 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress report. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Risk appetite still timid Thursday

April 6, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite this week has down-ticked. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Bank failures; high inflation; rising rates. Is the resilient jobs market about to crack?”

In overnight news, reports said that as the price of gold is back above $2,000 an ounce the countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa all plan to increase their gold reserves. This is due to “an increasingly bipolar geopolitical world—exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, says an ING analyst. He added such is a “structural positive for gold and structural negative for the U.S. dollar.”

The U.S. data point of the week is Friday’s U.S. employment situation report for March from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 238,000, compared to a rise of 311,000 in the February report. The U.S. markets will have to wait until Monday to react to the data, as they are closed on Friday for the Easter holiday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up after hitting a two-month low Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.292% and has fallen this week.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the global services PMI and monthly retail chain store sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,171.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,200.00 and then at this week’s high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,900.00 and then at 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 134 8/32 and then at the contract high of 134 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 132 24/32 and then at 132 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 117.01.5 and then at 117.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 116.11.0 and then at 116.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1019. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at this week’s low of 1.0835. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.81 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace at mid-week is hurting the grain market bulls. Soybean and corn market bulls still have the chart advantage. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Risk aversion up-ticks at mid-week

April 5, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite has been dented at mid-week after some downbeat U.S. economic data released Tuesday, namely a JOLTS report that showed a decline in job openings and a weak factory orders report.

In overnight news, New Zealand’s central bank surprised the marketplace by raising its main interest rate by 0.5%.

A feature in the marketplace this week is gold prices pushing above $2,000 an ounce and hitting a more-than-one-year high. A weakening U.S. dollar index and a surge in crude oil prices this week have helped to rally the yellow metal. Gold bulls are now poised to challenge the record high of $2,078.80, scored in March of 2022.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up after hitting a two-month low Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.365%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. international trade report, the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business services and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,348.75 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 12,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 133 7/32 and then at the March high of 133 29/32. Shorter-term support lies at 132 even and then at Tuesday’s low of 131 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 116.09.0 and then at 116.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.20.0 and then at 115.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1019 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 1.0929 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.81 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace at mid-week is hurting the grain market bulls. Soybean and corn market bulls still have the chart advantage. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. stock index bulls enjoying price uptrends

April 4, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 4–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock index bulls are enjoying near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts.

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank kept its monetary policy steady after its regular meeting. The bank said the pause from tightening gives it time to assess the outlook amid uncertainty, but added further tightening of monetary policy may be needed.

Meantime, the Eurozone February producer price index was reported up 13.6%, year-on-year, which was slightly below market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $81.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.449%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,200.00 and then at the February high of 4,244.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,122.75 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer and hit an eight-month high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,154.00 and then at last Friday’s low of 13,057.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 14/32 and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 130 12/32 and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.21.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 114.18.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are up and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0929 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting hit a two-month high Monday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.69 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at this week’s low of $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. This week’s jump in crude oil prices is bullish for grains. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace recently is also bullish. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

OPEC surprises with oil-production cut

April 3, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The weekend surprise OPEC-plus cut in its collective crude oil production by just over 1 million barrels a day is on the front burner of the marketplace to start the trading week. Oil prices spiked on the news, with Nymex crude oil prices presently up nearly $3.94 a barrel at $79.60.

“It’s a shock move by OPEC-plus as the cartel had previously vowed to maintain a steady supply. This is a significant reduction in a market in which supply was expected to be tight for the second half of 2023,” said Nigel Green of the deVere Group. “The production cuts could see prices close to $100 a barrel due to demand from a reopening China and as Russia has slashed production due to sanctions from the West. The dramatic cut will only add to pressing global inflationary squeezes.”

The OPEC oil-production-cut also raises the specter of higher inflation in the coming months that could force central banks to keep their interest rates higher for longer.

The other key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.513%.

It’s a busier day for U.S. economic data released Monday, including the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global PMI, construction spending and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a six-week high Friday and closed at a technically bullish weekly and monthly high close. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high of 4,142.50 and then at 4,175.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at Friday’s low of 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting an eight-month high Friday. Prices Friday also closed at a technically bullish weekly and monthly high close. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 13,311.50 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 13,057.50 and then at 12,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 131 17/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 130 12/32 and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 115.03.5 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 114.18.0 and then at last week’s low of 114.07.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0835 and then at last week’s low of 1.0797. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $81.69 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. The big jump in crude oil prices is benefitting the grain market bulls. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace recently is also bullish for grains. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart edge. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight edge amid a price uptrend in place.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Key U.S. inflation data out Friday

March 31, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 31–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors this week gained some better risk appetite as there were no new, negative developments on the U.S. and European banking fronts. However, reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Wild quarter for markets might foretell further turbulence.”

Today is the last trading day of the month and of the first quarter, which makes it an extra important trading day from a technical perspective. Gold bulls had their best trading month since July of 2020.

The U.S. data point of the week is Friday morning’s personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) data that will provide fresh clues on inflation and whether the U.S. economy may be headed toward recession. It’s been said the PCE data is a favorite gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve.

In overnight news, inflation in the Euro zone for March rose 6.9%, year-on-year, versus a rise of 8.5% in February. The March reading was slightly below market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher and trading around $74.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.564%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Chicago ISM business survey and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high of 4,119.50 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,052.50 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting an eight-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,138.75 and then at 13,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 12,931.50 and then at 12,742.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 130 25/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 129 6/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 114.28.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 115.07.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 114.07.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.0873 and then at this week’s low of 1.0797. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $72.61 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. One of the biggest USDA reports of the year is out on Friday: The prospective plantings report. The USDA quarterly grain stocks report is also out Friday. Look for volatile trading after the USDA reports that are out just before midday Friday. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace this week and the recent solid rebound in crude oil prices are bullish for the grains. Soybean market bulls have the slight chart edge. Corn bulls also have the technical edge and are working on a price uptrend. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight edge and are working on a price uptrend.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Global stock market bulls gaining confidence

March 30, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Stock market bulls around the globe are regaining confidence. The marketplace is slowly moving beyond the U.S. and European banking troubles. However, it’s too soon for the “all clear” siren regarding the matter. And now attention is turning to the health of major insurance companies. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Threat of a slow-boil bank crisis endures.”

The U.S. data point of the week is Friday’s personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) data that will provide fresh clues on inflation and whether the U.S. economy is headed toward recession. It’s been said the PCE data is a favorite gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $73.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.568%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the third estimate of four-quarter gross domestic product, and corporate profits.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. A fledgling price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high of 4,119.50 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,025.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,980.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 13,082.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,742.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,634.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 130 25/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 129 6/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 114.28.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 115.07.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 114.07.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0873 and then at this week’s low of 1.0797. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $72.19 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace this week and the recent solid rebound in crude oil prices are bullish for the grains. Soybean market bulls have gained the slight chart edge. Corn bulls also have the slight edge and are now working on a price uptrend and have momentum. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight edge and are working on a price uptrend. One of the biggest USDA reports of the year is out on Friday: The prospective plantings report. The USDA quarterly grain stocks report is also out Friday. Look for volatile trading after the USDA reports that are out just before midday Friday.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Less risk aversion at mid-week

March 29, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is slowly moving beyond the U.S. and European banking troubles as risk appetite creeps back into the markets. However, veteran market watchers believe it’s too soon for the “all clear” siren regarding the matter.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $74.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.549%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, pending homes sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,073.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,980.75 and then at 3,937.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,984.50 and then at the March high of 13,082.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,634.75 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 130 25/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 8/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 115.07.5 and then at 115.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 114.14.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0797 and then at 1.0768. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $72.19 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace this week and the recent solid rebound in crude oil prices are bullish for the grains. Soybean market bulls and bears are back on a level playing field. Corn bulls have the slight edge and are now working on a price uptrend and have momentum. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight edge and are working on a price uptrend.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Banking turmoil stabilizes, crude oil rises

March 28, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. and European banking crisis appears to have stabilized, at least for now. That’s allowing risk appetite to creep back into the marketplace.

It’s a busy week for U.S. economic data, but the highlight is Friday’s personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) data that will provide fresh clues on inflation and whether the U.S. economy is headed toward recession. It’s been said the PCE data is a favorite gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly up and trading around $73.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.558%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, advance economic indicators, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic home price index, the Richmond Fed business survey, the consumer confidence index and industrial production and capacity utilization.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,073.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 3,937.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,897.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 12,984.50 and then at the March high of 13,082.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,678.00 and then at last week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 131 even and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 8/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.07.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 114.18.0 and then at 114.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0797 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace and the recent solid rebound in crude oil prices are bullish for the grains. Soybean market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls are now working on a price uptrend and have momentum. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls are working on a price uptrend.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Marketplace calmer Monday

March 27, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is a bit keener to start the trading week. The U.S. and European banking systems appear to have stabilized, at least for the moment. First Citizens Bancshares has agreed to buy pieces of Silicon Valley Bank. Meantime, Deutsche Bank shares are firmer today amid easing fears for that bank’s health.

Geopolitics is moving closer to the front burner of the marketplace as Russia over the weekend threatened to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. North Korea has test-fired more ballistic missiles and the U.S. has retaliated with air strikes in Syria after an Iranian-backed drone attack killed a U.S. citizen and injured U.S. military personnel.

It’s a busy week for U.S. economic data, including Friday’s much-anticipated personal consumption and expenditures data that will provide fresh clues on whether the U.S. economy is headed toward recession.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly up and trading around $69.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.458%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,073.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 3,937.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,897.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 13,082.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,678.00 and then at last week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 132 19/32 and then at Friday’s high of 133 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a contract high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.00.0 and then at today’s high of 116.06.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 115.11.5 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0891 and then at the March high of 1.0983. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0768 and then at last week’s low of 1.0690. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $71.67 and then at $72.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Any renewed elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace this week will limit speculative buying interest in grains. Soybean market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures have broken down. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

European banking turmoil heats up Friday

March 24, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is again elevated to end the trading week, as focus is now on credit default swaps with Deutsch Bank that are suggesting stress for that bank. The recent series of banking problems in the U.S. and Europe are playing out as some veteran financial market watchers expected: sort of a rolling crisis that shows no signs of letting up. The Federal Reserve reported Thursday afternoon that U.S. banks drew on $165 billion from the Federal Reserve lending facility in the week ending March 22, highlighting lenders’ concerns over available interbank liquidity, Bloomberg reported.

In overnight news, reports said the U.S. military retaliated with air strikes on Iranian-backed militants in Syria after an Iranian drone strike in that region killed a U.S. worker and injured U.S. military personnel.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher on safe-haven demand. Nymex crude oil futures prices are sharply lower and are trading around $67.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.3%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes durable goods orders and the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,998.35 and then at Thursday’s high of 4,039.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,897.25 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 6.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,082.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,678.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on safe-haven demand. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 133 29/32 and then at the January high of 134 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 132 even and then at the overnight low of 131 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher and hit a contract high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at today’s contract high of 117.01.5 and then at 117.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 116.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 115.21.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0891 and then at this week’s high of 1.0983. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0690 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neural to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $69.00 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.90 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Friday sees elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace that will limit speculative buying interest in grains heading into the weekend. Soybean market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures have broken down. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage. The path of least resistance for grain futures markets prices at present is sideways to lower.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Marketplace calmer Thursday

March 23, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. While the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting produced a mostly expected quarter-point rate hike, Fed Chair Powell at his press conference leaned a bit more dovish than he had been in recent months. That briefly rallied the U.S. stock indexes. However, what rattled the U.S. stock market late in the session Wednesday was comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen at a Senate hearing that the federal government has no plans to protect all bank deposits that are not FDIC-insured.

In overnight news, the Swiss National Bank raised its main interest rate by 50 basis points. The central bank also said the Swiss banking crisis is over. The Bank of England is holding its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up following sharp losses Wednesday. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and are trading around $70.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.472%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, new residential sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,073.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,897.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a 6.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,082.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,678.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 131 28/32 and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at this week’s low of 129 8/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 115.19.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at 114.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower after hitting a seven-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0814 and then at 1.0761. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neural early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $71.31 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the Wednesday’s low of $68.89 and then at $66.90. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly higher overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace has been and likely will continue limiting speculative buying interest in grains. Soybean market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures are breaking down. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage. The path of least resistance for grain futures markets prices at present is sideways to lower.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Marketplace jittery as FOMC decision on deck

March 22, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Focus at mid-week is on the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that began Tuesday morning and concludes Wednesday afternoon. There is still last-minute debate regarding whether the Fed will raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points or stand pat amid the U.S. and European banking problems. Most market watchers are leaning toward a 0.25% Fed funds rate increase. The Bank of England holds is regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.

The U.S. and European bank turmoil is still a dark cloud hanging over the marketplace and curtailing risk appetite. Said market analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA: “It very much feels like we’re just taking one day at a time…. Every day that passes without drama is one closer to the point at which we can put the mini-banking crisis behind us. But it’s still early days and investors are all too aware of that, which is why we’re seeing a tentative recovery at this point.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly lower and are trading around $69.50 a barrel, after hitting a 15-month low Monday. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.604%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,043.25 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,981.75 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,898.25 and then at the January high of 13,068.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 12,676.50 and then at this week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 12/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 16/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.14.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 114.00.0 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 1.0761 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neural early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the Tuesday’s low of $66.90 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Continued elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace has been and likely will continue limiting speculative buying interest in grains. The recent big drop in crude oil prices to a 15-month low is an ominous, bearish omen for the entire raw commodity sector, including the grains. Soybean market bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures are now breaking down, finally. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage. The path of least resistance for grain futures markets prices at present is sideways to lower.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

A bit less risk aversion Tuesday as FOMC meets

March 21, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is a bit better so far Tuesday as the U.S. and European banking turmoil continues to play out. Reports say JP Morgan bank chief Jamie Dimon is helping the troubled First Republic Bank through its crisis of investor/depositor confidence.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting begins Tuesday and concludes Wednesday afternoon. There is still some debate in the marketplace regarding whether the Fed will raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points or stand pat amid the U.S. and European banking crisis. Most market watchers are leaning toward a 0.25% Fed funds rate increase. The 0.5% rate hike by the European Central Bank last week makes a 0.25% increase by the FOMC more likely.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and are trading around $68.50 a barrel, after hitting a 15-month low Monday. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.541%–up from levels seen Monday, which is an indication of less anxiety in the marketplace Tuesday. Gold prices are also weaker Tuesday, amid less safe-haven demand so far today.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales reports, and existing home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,050.00 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the last week’s high of 12,811.25 and then at 12,924.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 12,525.25 and then at 12,314.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 28/32 and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 10/32 and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 115.14.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 114.00.0 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0822 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0690 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher on short covering after hitting a 15-month low on Monday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neural to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.77 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Bulls are working to stabilize the grain markets. However, keener risk aversion in the general marketplace has been and likely will continue limiting speculative buying interest in grains. The recent big drop in crude oil prices to a 15-month low is an ominous, bearish omen for the entire raw commodity sector, including the grains. Soybean market bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures are now breaking down, finally. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Risk aversion back in play Monday

March 20, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Banking stocks across the globe are sinking, however. Risk aversion is again keener early this week. The Swiss banking firm UBS acquired Credit Suisse over the weekend to try to stabilize the European banking system, following the collapse of two big U.S. banks in early March. The move did little to boost trader and investor confidence. “There is a general sentiment that is trending increasingly negative,” said one market analyst. Said noted investor Mark Grant on CNBC when asked about the banking crisis: “It’s going to get worse. It’s going to be messy.”

Gold futures prices hit a 12-month high of $2,014.90 an ounce today, on safe-haven demand.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting begins Tuesday and concludes Wednesday afternoon. There is still some debate in the marketplace regarding whether the Fed will raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points or stand pat amid the U.S. and European banking crisis. Most market watchers, however, are leaning toward a 0.25% rate increase. The 0.5% rate hike by the European Central Bank last week makes a 0.25% increase by the FOMC more likely.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower, hit a 15-month low and are trading around $64.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.371% and is falling to start the trading week.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,009.25 and then at 4,047.50. Support for active traders is seen at 3,900.00 and then at the March low of 3,829.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the last week’s high of 12,811.25 and then at 12,924.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,500.00 and then at 12,314.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher and hit a seven-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 133 29/32 and then at the contract high of 134 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 131 5/32 and then at Friday’s low of 130 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 116.28.5 and 117.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 114.25.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0822 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0668 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a 15-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $67.45 and then at $69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $64.12 and then at $63.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Risk aversion has been and will continue limiting buying interest in grains. The big drop in crude oil prices to a 15-month low is an ominous, bearish omen for the entire raw commodity sector, including the grains. Soybean market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Marketplace a bit calmer Friday

March 17, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. While risk aversion has receded a bit late this week, by no mean is trader/investor risk appetite robust, amid the U.S. and European banking turmoil that is playing out. The latest development is First Republic Bank getting a $30 billion lifeline from other major U.S. banks, as well as support from the U.S. government. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline Friday: “Bank failures, like earlier shocks, raise odds of recession.”

In overnight news, China’s central bank eased its monetary policy by lowering its reserve requirement ratio for banks by 0.25%. This follows a move by the European Central Bank on Thursday to raise its main interest rate by 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meets next week and there is a debate in the marketplace regarding whether the Fed will raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points, or stand pat amid the U.S. and European banking crises. The rate hike by the ECB makes a 0.25% increase by the FOMC more likely.

Meantime, the Eurozone consumer price index for February came in up 8.5%, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations and compares to the January CPI reading of up 8.6%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $69.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.541%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes industrial production and capacity utilization, leaning economic indicators and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,009.25 and then at 4,047.50. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,767.75 and then at 12,924.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,500.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 12,314.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 132 even and then at this week’s high of 133 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 130 10/32 and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.21.0 and 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 114.01.5 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0750 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0580 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on a continued recovery after hitting a 15-month low Wednesday. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.07 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. Risk aversion this week has been limiting buying interest in grains. The big drop in crude oil prices this week to a 15-month low is an ominous, bearish “shot across the bow” of the entire raw commodity sector. Soybean market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Credit Suisse gets a lifeline; ECB decision looms

March 16, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace has been somewhat assuaged by news the Swiss central bank has thrown its financial support behind the troubled Credit Suisse bank. Credit Suisse’s CEO said his bank will continue its “strategic transformation to deliver value to our clients.” Credit Suisse’s stock price jumped 20% Thursday. However, many long-time market watchers are “waiting for the next shoe to drop” in the banking crisis.

The European Central Bank is meeting Thursday. The ECB was expected to raise its main interest rate by 50 basis points. However, the still-shaky banking sector in the Euro zone at present has likely altered the ECB’s plans. Said analyst Han Tan from Exinity: “A week is indeed a long time in global financial markets, and the calculus for central bank rate hikes has been dramatically altered by the SVB and Credit Suisse crises in recent days. The market’s prior foregone conclusion of a 50-basis point hike by the European Central Bank has been whittled down to a coin toss today. A 50bp hike may be too much for now, in light of the still-fragile sentiment surrounding the banking sector on both sides of the Atlantic. The ECB’s dilemma pits consumer price stability against financial systemic stability, and markets will be attuned to where the ECB’s bias lies. The central bank’s policy signals could serve as a canary in the coal mine, at least ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week, as contagion fears continue to permeate global financial markets.”

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meets next week and there is a hot debate in the marketplace regarding whether the Fed will raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points, or stand pat amid the U.S. and European banking crises. There appear to be valid arguments for both sides.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $68.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.494%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, new residential construction, and import and export prices.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,972.50 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,839.25 and then at the December low of 3,822.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,500.00 and then at the March high of 12,623.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,200.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 133 2/32 and then at 134 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.19.5 and then at this week’s high of 115.31.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 114.26.0 and then at 114.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at 1.0750. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0580 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, after hitting a 15-month low Wednesday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $69.00 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $67.00 and then at this week’s low of $65.65. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Risk aversion this week has limited buying interest in grains and may continue to do so. The big drop in crude oil prices Thursday to a 15-month low is an ominous, bearish “shot across the bow” of the entire raw commodity sector. Soybean market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Risk aversion keen at mid-week

March 15, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly up and European shares solidly down. European banking stocks are taking a big hit today, led by Credit Suisse and worries about its financial health. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is again elevated at mid-week as the banking turmoil that started in the U.S. is spreading in Europe. Falling U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer U.S. dollar index are indicative of traders and investors who are stressed and wanting to hold those safe-haven assets. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.534%.

The European Central Bank meets Thursday and was expected to raise its main interest rate by 50 basis points. However, the shaky banking sector in the Euro zone at present may at the last minute alter the ECB’s plans. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meets next week and there is a hot debate in the marketplace regarding whether the Fed will raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points, or stand pat amid the U.S. banking crisis.

The data point of a very busy U.S. economic report day Wednesday is the producer price index report for February. PPI is seen coming in up 0.3% from January, following a 0.7% rise in January from the December report. Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index report came out right in line with market expectations.

In overnight news, China’s economy rebounded the first two months of the year, as the world’s second-largest economy moved away from Covid restrictions of the past three years. Retail sales in January and February were up 3.5% from the same period a year ago. Industrial production was up 2.4% in the same periods. China’s exports were down 6.8% in the same periods.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $71.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, the producer price index, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,972.50 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,839.25 and then at the December low of 3,822.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are sharply down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,374.25 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,806.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are sharply higher on safe-haven demand. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 132 4/32 and then at this week’s high of 132 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 129 1/32 and then at this week’s low of 128 7/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 115.13.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 113.08.5 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0822 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0640 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.56 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly mostly lower overnight. Risk aversion at mid-week is again elevated and is limiting buying interest in grains. Soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Nervous marketplace awaits U.S. inflation report Tuesday

March 14, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor anxiety is still elevated Tuesday, following late last week’s collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the sixteenth largest bank in the U.S. The reverberations of the bank failure are still present in the marketplace and will likely continue to be for at least the next few days.

Focus today is on the U.S. consumer price index report for February, which is forecast coming in at up 6.0%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 6.5% in the January CPI report.

Goldman Sachs and many other analysts are forecasting the Federal Reserve now will not raise U.S. interest rates at its FOMC meeting next week. The fear in the marketplace is a contagion effect and crisis of confidence among the public. So far today, there does not appear to be extreme anxiety or panic in the marketplace, following the U.S. government’s pledge to cover the funds for all of SVB’s depositors—but not its investors in its stock.

The U.S. Treasury market has stabilized. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.605%. Another surge in U.S. T-Bond and T-Note prices (falling yields) would suggest a surge in marketplace worry and anxiety. The U.S. 2-year Treasury note on Monday surged to the largest daily price gain (yield decline) since the stock market meltdown in 1987.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer after a steep two-session downdraft. Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly lower and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Crude has been hit this week by worries about declining global demand amid the financial turmoil and its lingering implications.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales indexes and the NFIB small business index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low Monday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 3,971.50 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 3,839.25 and then at the December low of 3,822.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 12,222.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 11,806.25 and then at 11,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a five-week high Monday, on safe-haven demand. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neural to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 132 4/32 and then at Monday’s high of 132 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a five-week high Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.00.0 and then at Monday’s high of 115.13.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 113.22.0 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0816 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0713 and then at last Friday’s low of 1.0640. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $74.90 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $72.30 and then at the December low of $70.86. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly lower overnight. Risk aversion in the marketplace this week is likely to continue to limit buying interest in grains. Soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Potential U.S. banking crisis rattles marketplace Monday

March 13, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor anxiety is elevated to start the trading week, following a turbulent weekend in the wake of late last week’s collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the sixteenth largest bank in the U.S. The federal government said it would back all depositors in the failed bank. Other smaller U.S. banks are reported to be in stress due to depositor withdrawals. Government regulators have also taken over Signature Bank, which serves many crypto currency companies.

To show how much this event has shaken the general marketplace, Goldman Sachs is now predicting the Federal Reserve will not raise U.S. interest rates at its FOMC meeting next week. Said one market analyst in a Wall Street Journal story today: “When the Fed raises rates so quickly, nine times out of 10, it breaks things. We may see more corporate failures; we may see more regional banks go under.” Read a headline on Dow Jones Newswires: “Bank mayhem is now on the Fed’s radar.”

Gold prices have extended late last week’s sharp gains and have hit a four-week high near $1,900 an ounce today. Safe-haven demand is featured in the metal. U.S. Treasury prices are also solidly up (yields down) on flight-to-quality buying. Meantime, Bitcoin prices are sharply up.

Of course, the fear in the marketplace is a contagion effect and crisis of confidence among the investing public and the general public. The next two days will be critical in gauging the stress of the investing and general public.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower after hitting a three-month high last week. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $75.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.549%, after recently poking above the 4.0% level.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down and near a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,950.00 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at the last week’s low of 3,881.00 and then at the December low of 3,822.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,222.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 11,925.75 and then at 11,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher and hit a five-week high on safe-haven demand in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 30/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 128 7/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are sharply higher and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.29.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 113.16.0 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0799 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at Friday’s low of 1.0640. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $76.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Risk aversion in the marketplace this week is likely to limit buying interest in grains. Soybean market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Marketplace anxiety to end the trading week

March 10, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

All week long the marketplace reckoned the U.S. jobs report Friday morning would be the main focal point of the week. However, a major U.S. financial institution is in big trouble and the marketplace is anxious. SVB Financial, the holding company for Silicon Valley Bank and the 16th largest U.S. commercial bank, dropped 60% in stock value after an emergency $2.25 billion capital increase to cover $1.8 billion in losses on its $21 billion bond portfolio. The bank is also a big player in crypto currencies, which has cryptos under pressure late this week. A Barron’s headline today reads: “Bitcoin plunges below $20,000 with little reason to buy; it could get worse fast.”

Said broker SP Angel in an email dispatch: “Markets look vulnerable to further shocks as the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in California lends weight to a risk-off strategy. To quote Warren Buffett: ‘Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.’ Every institution holding treasuries is now sitting on paper losses and will be forced to crystalize real losses if required to sell. Shares in JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, the largest U.S. lenders by assets, all fell by between 4.1% and 6.2%.”

Added Criag Erlam of OANDA: “Ultimately, what we’re seeing today is a very defensive response to a series of events that have left investors with many more questions than answers, and fearing further ripple effects in the financial sector. It’s understandable but yet unclear how long that will last and whether it will worsen.”

Traders are still awaiting the February U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 225,000 jobs, following a mammoth rise of 517,000 in the January report. Look for higher volatility in many markets is the non-farm jobs print misses expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker and trading around $75.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.847%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,920.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,300.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,056.25 and then at the March low of 11,964.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high on safe-haven demand in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 127 25/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 3/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are sharply higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.13.0 and then at 112.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.20.5 and then at 111.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at this week’s high of 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0590 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage with this week’s selling pressure. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $76.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Risk aversion in the marketplace late this week is likely to limit buying interest in grains today. Soybean market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Markets pausing ahead of U.S. jobs report Friday

March 9, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The general marketplace is quieter Thursday, ahead of the February U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 225,000 jobs, following a mammoth rise of 517,000 in the January report. Look for higher volatility in many markets is the non-farm jobs print misses expectations.

In overnight news, China’s inflation eased as its February consumer price index rose just 1.0%, year-on-year, compared to a consensus forecast of up 1.7%. Those numbers are way below recent inflation numbers reported by the European Union, the U.S. and other major industrialized countries.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.987%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the Challenger job-cuts report. President Biden also releases his fiscal year 2024 budget today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,050.00 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,960.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,623.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,247.75 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 126 even and then at this week’s high of 126 13/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 124 16/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.17.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.20.5 and then at 110.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at this week’s high of 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0590 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy and sideways trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.11 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Soybean market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Markets digesting hawkish Powell

March 8, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace is still digesting Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony Tuesday morning on U.S. monetary policy to a Senate committee. Powell leaned hawkish, which was not surprising to many, but the marketplace did deem his remarks as being more hawkish than the central bank chief had been in the recent past. Powell said the Fed will likely have to keep U.S. interest rates higher for longer to win the war against problematic price inflation. He said recent stronger U.S. economic data has likely rolled back some of the softening the U.S. had seen on the inflation front the past few months. The U.S. dollar rallied sharply on Powell’s remarks and hit a three-month high. The U.S. stock indexes sold off on his remarks, as did crude oil. Powell speaks to a House of Representatives panel on Wednesday.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.972%. The 2-year note yield pushed above 5% for the first time since 2007, presently fetching 5.038%. The 2-year – 10-year note spread is presently the widest in decades. Historically, an inverted Treasury yield curve has portended tough U.S. economic times ahead.

Traders and investors are also looking forward to the February U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 225,000 jobs, following a mammoth rise of 517,000 in the January report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher and hit another three-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly down and trading around $77.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the international trade report, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,100.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,119.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,960.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,623.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,200.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering after hitting a three-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 125 28/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 124 16/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.17.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.20.5 and then at 110.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0650 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy and sideways trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.82 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to lower overnight. Soybean market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage. The data point of the week for the grain futures markets is the monthly USDA supply and demand report out this morning.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Powell testimony on deck Tuesday a.m.

March 7, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Focus of the marketplace is on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony on U.S. monetary policy to Senate and House committees on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Tuesday Senate testimony begins at 10:00 a.m. EST. The Wall Street Journal reports Powell “is likely to caution on Capitol Hill that strong economic activity this year could lead central bank officials to raise interest rates more than they expected, to combat high inflation.”

Then comes the February U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 225,000 jobs, following a mammoth rise of 517,000 in the January report.

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly down and trading around $80.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.928%–down a bit after pushing above 4.0% last week.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales indexes, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index, monthly wholesale trade and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,119.50 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,010.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 12,623.00 and then at 12,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 12,413.75 and then at 12,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a three-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 125 28/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 124 17/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a three-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 111.17.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 110.30.5 and then at 110.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. A five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s and the overnight high of 1.0758 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0685 and then at 1.0634. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-week high overnight. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy and sideways trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $81.00 and then at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $78.32 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Soybean market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage. The data point of the week for the grain futures markets is the monthly USDA supply and demand report on Wednesday morning.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

China’s economic growth projections disappoint

March 6, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed mixed openings when the New York day session begins, following solid gains and technically bullish weekly high closes posted last Friday.

The U.S. data points of the week will be Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony on U.S. monetary policy to Senate and House committees on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then comes the February U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 225,000 jobs, following a mammoth rise of 517,000 in the January report.

In overnight news, China set a 5% target for its economic growth in 2023, which is the lowest forecast in over 25 years.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are down and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.991%–down a bit after pushing above 4.0% last week.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,130.00 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,010.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. A four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,509.75 and then at 12,650.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 12,148.00 and then at last week’s low of 11,964.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a three-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 126 even and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 124 25/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a three-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 111.16.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.01.5 and then at 110.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0758 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0634 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy and sideways trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $80.78. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last Friday’s low of $75.83 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight on news of disappointing economic growth projections out of China. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage. The data point of the week for the grain futures markets is the monthly USDA supply and demand report on Wednesday morning.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

China’s central bank eases monetary policy

March 3, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are in fledgling price downtrends on the daily bar charts.

The general marketplace lately has been dealing with the realization that problematic global inflation is likely to hang around longer than traders and investors initially expected, or hoped. That notion has sapped trader and investor risk appetite recently. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “The world economy is doing well; this is bad news for central bankers.”

In overnight news, China’s central bank governor has signaled the bank will ease its monetary policy by cutting banks’ reserve requirement ratio, in order to support the Chinese economy.

Meantime, the Euro zone got some mixed inflation news as its producer price index fell 2.8% in January but was up 15.0%, year-on-year. Those numbers were less hot than expected.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly down and trading around $78.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 4.007%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business services, and the global services PMI.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,060.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,960.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. A four-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,322.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,964.25 and then at 11,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a three-month low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 125 even and then at this week’s high of 125 20/32. Shorter-term support lies at the 123 even and then at this week’s low of 122 22/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a three-month low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 111.02.0 and then at 111.12.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.15.5 and then at this week’s low of 110.12.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0758 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0634 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy and sideways trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $76.12 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight on corrective rebounds from this week’s selling pressure. Soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have made a solid rebound this week. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage. Grain traders are also looking to the outside markets for some price direction.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. bond yields on the rise

March 2, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. A feature in the marketplace recently has been rising U.S. Treasury yields. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 4.020%. The yield is the highest since last November. Traders and investors worried about a still-hawkish Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer in order to successfully tamp down problematic price inflation. However, that means the Fed clamping down on U.S. economic growth to squelch consumer and commercial demand.

In overnight news, the Euro zone February consumer price index came in at up 8.5%, year-on-year, compared to up 8.6% in January and a forecast for up 8.2% in the February report. It’s apparent the European Central Bank still has more work to do to defeat high inflation in the Euro zone.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $78.25 a barrel. Oil prices have rallied recently on hopes for better energy demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy, as that nation has abandoned its Covid restrictions.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, revised productivity and costs, and the monthly chain store sales index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,060.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,322.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,900.00 and then at 11,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 124 6/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 123 11/32 and then at 123 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.02.0 and then at 111.12.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.20.0 and then at 110.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0758 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0634 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy and sideways trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $76.12 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight on corrective rebounds from this week’s selling pressure. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Soybean market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage have faded a bit. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Marketplace eyeing China developments

March 1, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is not keen to start the new trading month, but neither is risk aversion. An underlying current in the marketplace recently has been notions China’s economic growth will surge this year. A Wall Street Journal article this morning has the headline: “China’s economy seen emerging from zero-Covid shadow.” However, the deteriorating political relations between the U.S. and China have pushed the world’s two largest economies very close to a cold war that could at least partially offset the benefits to the global marketplace of a stronger China economy.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $76.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.92%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the global manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, domestic auto industry sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,070.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,984.75 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,394.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,124.00 and then at last week’s low of 12,058.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices Tuesday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 125 20/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 124 9/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.25.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 111.04.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are solidly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0750 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0634 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $77.83 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight mild corrective rebounds from this week’s selling pressure. Soybean market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading now. Corn and wheat bears have the overall chart advantage and have momentum on their side, to suggest more selling pressure in those markets in the near term.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Quieter trading early Tuesday

February 28, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace has been quieter early this week, amid a lack of major, fresh fundamental news to drive prices.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $77.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.943%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the advance economic indicators report, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic Case-Shiller home indexes, the Chicago ISM business survey, the Richmond Fed business activity survey, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,070.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,984.75 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,394.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 12,058.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 125 20/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 124 14/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.25.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 111.04.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at 1.0750. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0601 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $77.74 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $75.55 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Soybean market bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the overall chart advantage and have momentum on their side, to suggest more selling pressure in those markets in the near term.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Stock market bulls still jittery to start week

February 27, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly lower and European shares mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The stock index bulls are still jittery after last week, which saw the worst performance of the year for the U.S. stock indexes. Worries about the Federal Reserve keeping U.S. interest rates higher for longer have left traders and investors with less risk appetite. The Wall Street Journal today reported, “Fear is creeping back into the stock market. To protect against a potential downturn, traders are scooping up hedges at the fastest clip since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.” Traders are betting the CBOE’s daily volatility index (VIX) will rise in the coming weeks. To do that hedging, traders are buying call options on the VIX, said the WSJ.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly lower and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.955%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes durable goods orders, pending home sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a four-week low. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,070.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,984.75 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices last Friday hit a four-week low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,394.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 12,058.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 125 16/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 124 23/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.16.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 111.04.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up and hit a seven-week low in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0677 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0601 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $76.82 and then at last week’s high of $77.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at last week’s low of $73.80. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Soybean market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears the overall chart advantage and have momentum on their side, to suggest more selling pressure in the near term.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Another U.S. inflation report out Friday a.m.

February 24, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite this week has not been keen, as the U.S. stock indexes hit multi-week lows on Thursday. It seems that this week it may have finally sunk into the general marketplace that the U.S. will keep its monetary policy tighter for longer, in order to successfully tamp down problematic inflation.

The U.S. data point of the day Friday is the personal income and outlays report for January and its PCE price index component. The PCE core price index is forecast to come in at up 4.4%, year-on-year, which compares with up 4.4% in the December report.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $75.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.895%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, new residential sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a four-week low. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,089.25 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,974.25 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a three-week low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 12,261.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,417.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,028.50 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 125 12/32 and then at this week’s high of 125 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 123 26/32 and then at 123 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.19.0 and then at 111.28.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.25.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0676 and then at this week’s high of 1.0718. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $76.55 and then at this week’s high of $77.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $73.80 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Soybean market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls have lost their chart advantage after solid losses Thursday. Wheat futures bears have the firm overall chart advantage.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. GDP on deck Thursday a.m.

February 23, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors have mostly digested the Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes that were released Wednesday afternoon. The marketplace deemed the minutes as leaning slightly more hawkish than expected, as there were a few FOMC members that wanted a 50-basis-point hike in the Fed fund range at the January meeting. That meeting saw a 25-basis-point rise.

In overnight news, the Euro zone January consumer price index was reported up 8.6%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

A feature in the marketplace this week has been rising U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark U.S. 10-year note yield inching toward the 4.0% level. That suggests the marketplace is coming to grips with a U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy that will keep interest rates “higher for longer” to successfully tamp down inflation.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $74.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.945%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, which includes the closely watched PCE price index, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a four-week low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,089.25 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,983.75 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a three-week low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,300.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,417.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,034.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 124 30/32 and then at this week’s high of 125 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 123 30/32 and then at 123 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 111.14.5 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.30.5 and then at 110.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0676 and then at this week’s high of 1.0718. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0596 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $76.55 and then at this week’s high of $77.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $73.80 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage as near-term price uptrends have been negated. Weekly USDA export sales data is out Friday morning, delayed one day this week by the U.S. holiday on Monday.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

FOMC minutes on deck Wed. p.m.

February 22, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings and at four-week lows when the New York day session begins. The stock index bulls have faded recently, including near-term price uptrends on the daily bar chart being negated to suggest near-term market tops are in place.

The U.S. data point of the day Wednesday will be the release of the minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC), due out at 2:00 p.m. EST. Past FOMC minutes releases have moved markets.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $75.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.943%. A Wall Street Journal headline Wednesday reads: “Rising bond yields rattle 2023 stock rally.”

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the FOMC minutes and the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,050.00 and then at Monday’s high of 4,089.25. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded as a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,200.00 and then at Monday’s high of 12,417.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-month low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 125 even and then at this week’s high of 125 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 123 30/32 and then at 123 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-month low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 111.16.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.30.5 and then at 110.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0718 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0626 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $76.55 and then at this week’s high of $77.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to lower overnight. The big news in the grain markets this week is the very early frost that hit Argentina’s soybean crops last weekend. Serious freeze damage likely occurred to some of the bean crop there. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the slight overall chart advantage and near-term price uptrends are now sputtering.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Some risk aversion in play Tuesday

February 21, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk aversion is elevated to start the U.S. trading week, following President Biden’s surprise visit to the Ukraine and his promise to provide $500 million more in aid to the war-torn nation. This comes at the same time U.S.-China relations continue to deteriorate.

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic news as its February composite purchasing managers index came in at 52.3, which was well above the consensus forecast of 50.5 and compares to the January reading of 50.3. A number above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $77.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.877%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the U.S. flash and services purchasing managers’ indexes and existing home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been at least temporarily negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 4,096.00 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,047.75 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the near-term chart advantage but a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 12,466.25 and then at 12,650.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,228.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 126 even and then at 126 20/32. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 124 14/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.00.5 and then at 112.11.5. Shorter-term technical support last week’s low of 111.08.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0718 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0626 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $78.50 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $75.32 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Grain traders are uneasy about the Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal being extended and that’s bullish for grain prices. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the slight overall chart advantage but there are technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Keener risk aversion to end the trading week

February 17, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk aversion is keen to end the trading week. Said market analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA: “Equity markets are ending the week in the red after finally falling victim to the persistent disappointment of U.S. economic data on Thursday. It’s taken a lot but it would appear investors’ eternal optimism is being shaken, with the latest PPI figures finally driving the message home that bringing the U.S. economy in for a soft landing will be extraordinarily challenging and there’ll likely be plenty of turbulence along the way. In reality, the message should have sunk in much sooner but investors were seemingly so convinced that these were just blips in the data that they failed to see how quickly they were stacking up.” Erlam’s comments fall in line with widely followed Morgan Stanley analyst Mike Wilson, who has been right on calling the stock market trajectory the past year or so. Read a Barron’s headline today: “Markets are finally catching up with reality; time to price in rate rises.”

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher and hitting a five-week high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly lower and trading around $76.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.908% and is on the rise late this week.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and headed for a technically bearish weekly low close. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,100.00 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the near-term chart advantage but a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,792.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 12,243.25 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 125 11/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 124 14/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.24.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support the overnight low of 111.08.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0687 and then at 1.0750. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0600 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $78.25 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to mostly firmer overnight. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace late this week will squelch the grain market bulls during today’s day session. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the slight overall chart advantage but there are technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. producer price index report on deck Thursday

February 16, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. data point of the day Thursday is the U.S. producer price index report for January. PPI is seen up 0.4% from December, following a decline of 0.5% in December from November.

In overnight news, China-U.S. relations continued to deteriorate as China black-listed U.S. companies Lockheed and Raytheon, both major U.S. defense contractors. This comes after the U.S. black-listed six Chinese companies linked to the Chinese spy balloons.

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback from recent good gains that saw the index hit a five-week high Wednesday. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.788%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the producer price index, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and new residential construction. Several Federal Reserve officials are slated to give speeches today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,186.50 and then at the February high of 4,208.50. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4,113.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,060.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the near-term chart advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,818.50 and then at the February high of 12,949.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,524.25 and then at Tuesday’s low of 12,390.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a five-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 127 19/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 125 30/32 and then at 125 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 112.18.0 and then at 112.28.0. Shorter-term technical support the overnight low of 111.29.5 and then at the December low of 111.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0762 and then at this week’s high of 1.0824. Shorter-term support is seen at the February low of 1.0674 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at this week’s high of $80.62. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.25 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the slight overall chart advantage but there are technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. CPI report on deck Tuesday a.m.

February 14, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors are anxiously awaiting the U.S. economic data point of the week on Tuesday morning–the consumer price index report for January. The CPI is seen up 6.2%, year-on-year, compared to the rise of 6.5% in the December report. On Thursday, the U.S. producer price index report is released.

In overnight news, oil prices dipped as the U.S. government said it would release 26 million barrels of its strategic petroleum reserves. A bigger draw on those reserves was made by the government last year.

The Biden administration is set to name Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard as the top White House economic advisor. Brainard is viewed as a monetary policy dove.

The Euro zone fourth-quarter gross domestic product report showed a rise of 0.1% from the third quarter and was up 1.9%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.686%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the NFIB small business index and real earnings. Several Federal Reserve officials also speak today, as does Treasury Secretary Yellen.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the February high of 4,208.50 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,060.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term chart advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,818.50 and then at the February high of 12,949.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 12,243.25 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher after hitting a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 128 16/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 15/32 and then at this week’s low of 126 23/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 113.07.0 and then at 113.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 112.17.0 and then at 112.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0739 and then at this week’s low of 1.0674. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are down in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $80.62 and then at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $76.52. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Not much new, fundamentally, in the grains. The bulls, overall, have gained some upside technical momentum recently. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the slight overall chart advantage but there are technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Traders await U.S. CPI on Tuesday

February 13, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly higher and Asian shares mostly lower. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors are awaiting the U.S. economic data point of the week, which is the consumer price index report for January. The CPI is seen up 6.2%, year-on-year, compared to the rise of 6.5% in the December report. On Thursday, the U.S. producer price index report is released.

In overnight news, the European Union forecast Euro zone inflation in 2023 at 5.6%, which is down from 6.1% in its previous forecast for 2023.

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker and trading around $79.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.732%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but the uptrend is in jeopardy. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,150.00 and then at 4,170.25. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,060.75 and then at 4,007.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the near-term chart advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, that price uptrend is in jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,500.00 and then at 12,650.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 12,243.25 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 128 3/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 16/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 113.00.0 and then at Friday’s high of 113.07.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112.16.0 and then at 112.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading but hit a five-week low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0750 and then at Friday’s high of 1.0772. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0650 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $80.33 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $76.52. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are now technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Some risk aversion to end trading week

February 10, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Market analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA said today in an email dispatch: “Equity markets are ending the week on a flat or slightly downbeat note, which has largely reflected the mood all week, really. Central bankers, particularly from the Fed, have been out in force stressing caution over interest rate expectations. And it’s clearly had an impact following that red-hot U.S. jobs report last week. Markets are now pricing in two more hikes from the Fed and possibly one cut later in the year.” A headline in a Barron’s report today reads, “The recession has gone missing.”

In overnight news, reports said Russia plans on cutting its oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, or about 5%, starting in March, in response to Western sanctions. Oil prices rallied on the news. Oil prices are also being supported on notions of stronger economic growth in China this year. Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly up and trading around $80.00 a barrel.

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index firmer. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.705%. Treasury yields have climbed following last week’s stronger U.S. jobs report.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and headed for a technically bearish weekly low close. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but the uptrend is now in jeopardy. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,098.25 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the near-term chart advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, that price uptrend is now in some jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,451.50 and then at Thursday’s high of 12,728.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,200.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 128 3/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 127 even and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.07.0 and then at Friday’s high of 113.26.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112.25.0 and then at 112.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0822 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0691 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are solidly up and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls have momentum on their side. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $80.33 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at Thursday’s low of $76.52. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. Not much new recently. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are now technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Fedspeak featured this week

February 9, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, Sweden’s central bank raised its main interest rate by 0.5%, to 3.0%.

Said broker SP Angel in an email dispatch this morning: “Fed officials, including New York Fed President Williams and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, both called for a higher peak rate following the major upside surprise to U.S. Jobs last Friday. Focus now turns to the U.S. CPI data release next week on Tuesday. Expect a further ease in inflationary data to support risk assets and weigh on the dollar, likely supporting gold. However, if U.S. CPI comes in hotter-than-expected, we expect the both U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar to rally as markets may potentially reprice their expectations of the Fed terminal rate higher, weighing on non-interest-bearing gold. The market currently expects Fed rate hikes to peak at 5.1% versus their current level of 4.6%, before pivoting around August.”

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index lower. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching around 3.596%. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly up and trading around $78.75 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday is light and includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,188.25 and then at the February high of 4,208.50. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,128.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,098.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term chart advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,818.50 and then at the February high of 12,949.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,455.75 and then at 12,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 129 11/32 and then at this week’s high of 130 2/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 127 28/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 113.28.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.05.5 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0822 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0728 and then at this week’s low of 1.0691. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have gained momentum this week. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to mixed overnight. Traders are awaiting this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are early technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

No surprises from Fed Chair Powell’s remarks

February 8, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace on Tuesday afternoon saw Fed Chairman Powell at a Washington, D.C. economic club meeting reiterate that U.S. inflation has started to come down but has a long way to drop to meet the Fed’s inflation objectives. Powell was pressed on last Friday’s strong jobs report possibly changing Fed policy to more hawkish, but Powell brushed that notion off, at first. However, at the end of his remarks he said more strong U.S. economic data could force the Fed to raise rates more than it expects at present. Stock and financial markets gyrated during and right after his comments but at the end of the day Tuesday, Powell’s remarks were deemed as not surprising and did not have a major, lasting impact on markets.

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index weaker. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching around 3.6%. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are up and trading around $78.00 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,188.25 and then at the February high of 4,208.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,125.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,098.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term chart advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the February high of 12,949.75 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,600.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,455.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 129 11/32 and then at this week’s high of 130 2/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 128 5/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 113.28.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.05.5 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0822 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0691 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are up in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have gained momentum this week. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Traders are awaiting Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are early technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Markets await Fed Chair Powell’s speech

February 7, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The focal point of the marketplace today is a speech to an economics club in Washington, D.C. by Fed Chairman Jay Powell. Traders and investors are anxious to see what Powell has to say after last week’s surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report that many believe could force the Fed to remain hawkish on U.S. monetary policy for longer. A Barron’s headline today reads: “Markets may have misread Powell last week.” That story suggests the marketplace focused too much on Powell’s disinflation comments and not enough on Powell’s remarks that more work needs to be done to tame inflation.

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index a bit higher on a continued rebound from last week’s nine-month low. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.642%. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are up and trading around $75.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the international trade report, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index. President Joe Biden also delivers his State of the Union address Tuesday evening.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,143.00 and then at last Friday’s high of 4,194.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at 4,048.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term chart advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,605.00 and then at 12,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,400.00 and then at 12,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130 2/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 128 24/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.23.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.10.5 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. An uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at this week’s high of 1.0822. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0050 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are up in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $76.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $74.35 and then at this week’s low of $72.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed overnight. Not much new early this week. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are early technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out. Traders are awaiting Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Strengthening U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields Monday

February 6, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, on profit taking after recent strong gains that saw index prices hit multi-month highs last week.

A feature in the marketplace early this week is a strengthening U.S. dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields. This follows last Friday’s January U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department that showed a sharp rise in non-farm payrolls of 517,000. The number was expected to be up only 187,000 jobs, following a rise of 223,000 in the December report. The strong jobs report dashed earlier notions the Federal Reserve might back off on raising interest rates sooner rather than later. A Dow Jones Newswires story this morning is headlined: “Fed cuts look like a dream, not a reality.”

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.612%. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $75.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback and profit taking after prices last Thursday hit a 5.5-month high. Prices are still in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,143.00 and then at Friday’s high of 4,194.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at 4,048.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high last Thursday. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,605.00 and then at 12,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,400.00 and then at 12,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 22/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 129 even and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 114.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 114.11.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114.22.5 and then at 114.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. An uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $73.10 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are early technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out. Traders are awaiting Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. jobs report on deck Friday a.m.

February 3, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s January U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to be up 187,000 jobs, following a rise of 223,000 in the December report. A significant miss from expectations is likely to move many markets.

In overnight news, the Euro zone January producer price index was reported up 24.6%, year-on-year, but excluding energy was up 12.3%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Prices Thursday hit a nine-month low. Nymex crude oil futures prices are a bit weaker and trading around $76.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.392%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), the global services PMI and the ISM report on business services.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after prices Thursday hit a 5.5-month high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,208.50 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,136.75 and then at Wednesday’s low of 4,048.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high on Thursday. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,750.00 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,500.00 and then at 12,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 22/32 and then at the January high of 132 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 116.00.0 and then at the January high of 116.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.08.0 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices Thursday hit a nine-month high and remain in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1059. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at this week’s low of 1.0830. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed overnight. The upbeat trader and investor attitudes late this week are friendly for grain futures markets. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are early technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out. Traders will focus on the key outside markets for direction in the grains today: The U.S. dollar index, crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Upbeat attitudes following less-hawkish Fed

February 2, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins, following an afternoon surge to multi-week highs on Wednesday. The marketplace is still digesting Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. The Fed raised the Fed funds rate range by 0.25%, as widely expected. However, Powell’s remarks at his presser led the marketplace to believe the Fed is close to ending its string of interest rate increases. Powell said inflation is receding but needs to pull back farther. He mentioned the word “disinflation” as characterizing the present U.S. economic conditions. Most agreed that in the final assessment, Powell was not nearly as hawkish as he had been in recent FOMC press conferences and left the door open to a Fed “pivot” sooner rather than later.

On tap today is the regular monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

Focus now turns to Friday morning’s January U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to be up 187,000 jobs, following a rise of 223,000 in the December report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a fit firmer on a mild upside correction after careening to a nine-month low Wednesday. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $76.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.409%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, preliminary productivity and costs, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the monthly chain store sales index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday hit a six week high and are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the December high of 4,180.00 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 4,048.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a 4.5-month high. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,750.00 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,400.00 and then at 12,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, on a mild downside correction after solid gains Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 28/32 and then at the January high of 132 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a mild pullback after solid gains posted Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 115.19.0 and then at 115.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.08.0 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher and hit a nine-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1059 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at 1.0950. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer overnight. The upbeat trader and investor attitudes following the FOMC meeting are friendly for grain futures markets. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are early technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

FOMC in focus Tuesday

January 31, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts and the stock index bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Most believe the Fed will raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.25%, following the recent 0.5% rate hikes. Trading in stock and financial markets may be more muted just ahead of the FOMC statement and press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday afternoon.

In overnight news, China got some upbeat economic data Tuesday. Official readings on manufacturing and services improved sharply. The services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 54.0 in January from 39.4 in December. The manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4 from 41.6 in December. Readings above 50.0 suggest growth in the sector.

Meantime, the Euro zone economy has avoided recession, but just barely. The fourth-quarter GDP for the zone came in at up 0.1% from the third quarter and up 1.9%, year-on-year. Those number were slightly better than market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are down and trading around $77.00 a barrel. Oil traders are awaiting an OPEC-plus cartel meeting Wednesday. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.538%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the employment cost index, the U.S. monthly house price index, the S&P-Case Shiller-CoreLogic house indexes and the Chicago ISM business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high last Friday. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,044.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,086.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high last Friday. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,004.50 and then at this week’s high of 12,252.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,800.00 and then at last week’s low of 11,604.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130 16/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 129 10/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer and in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.25.0 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 114.05.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0830 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $78.14 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.55 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower overnight. Not much new recently. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage. Grain market traders are focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Markets await FOMC meeting

January 30, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Still, the U.S. stock indexes are in price uptrends on the daily bar charts and the stock index bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as S&P and Nasdaq indexes on Friday hit six-week highs and closed at technically bullish weekly high closes.

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Most believe the Fed will raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.25%, following the recent 0.5% rate hikes. Trading in stock and financial markets early this week may be more muted ahead of the FOMC statement and press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday afternoon.

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic data as the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for January posted a reading of 99.9 versus 97.1 in December. The January gain marks the third straight monthly rise in the indicator.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly down and trading around $79.50 a barrel. Oil traders are awaiting an OPEC-plus cartel meeting this Wednesday. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.551%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas Manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high on Friday. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,086.00 and then at last week’s high of 4,109.25. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high on Friday. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,252.00 and then at last week’s high of 12,308.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,867.25 and then at last week’s low of 11,604.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 16/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 129 10/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.25.0 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0868 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $80.49 and then at the January high of $82.66. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.73 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage. Grain market traders are focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. inflation data out Friday a.m.

January 27, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are enjoying near-term price uptrends on the daily charts, to suggest further gains in the short term.

The U.S. data point of the day Friday is the personal income and outlays report, which contains the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation indexes that the Federal Reserve is said to watch very closely.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $82.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.561%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, pending home sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,068.25 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,113.00 and then at the December high of 12,339.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 11,867.25 and then at this week’s low of 11,604.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading and heading for a technically bearish weekly low close. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 13/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Prices are headed for a technically bearish weekly low close today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.28.0 and then at this week’s high of 115.13.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading on profit taking. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0838 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are up in early U.S. trading and headed for a bullish weekly high close. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $82.66 and then at $83.14. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.45 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly firmer overnight. Not much new this week. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage. Grain market traders are focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Less risk aversion in marketplace Thursday

January 26, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are enjoying near-term price uptrends on the daily charts, to suggest further gains in the short term.

The U.S. data point of the day Thursday is the advance estimate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product. GDP is seen coming in at up 2.8%, year-on-year, compared to a 3.2% rise in the third quarter.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are a bit firmer and trading around $80.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.485%.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data releases Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the advance estimate for four-quarter gross domestic product, the advance economic indicators report, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and durable goods orders, and new residential sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,056.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,010.50 and then at 12,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,800.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,604.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 8/32 and then at this week’s high of 131 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 129 16/32 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.13.0 and then at 115.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 114.14.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading on profit taking. Prices Monday hit an eight-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0838 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $82.66 and then at $83.14. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.45 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer overnight. Not much new this week. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage. Grain market traders are focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction. Grain traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Quieter marketplace at mid-week

January 25, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly down and Asian shares mostly up. China markets are quiet as the Lunar New Year holiday is being celebrated. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, Germany, the workhorse of the European Union, reported its business sentiment hit a seven-month high in January.

The World Bank and Swiss Federal Office for Customs and Border Security reported Swiss exports of gold to China surged in 2022, at 478 metric tons. That’s up from 274 tons in 2021.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $80.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.438%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-week high Monday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,056.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,980.25 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after prices hit a four-week high Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,010.50 and then at 12,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,650.50 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 132 even and then at the January high of 132 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.12.0 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 114.14.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading on profit taking. Prices Monday hit an eight-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0838 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $82.66 and then at $83.14. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $79.57 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed overnight. Recent risk aversion in the general marketplace is still a bearish element for the grain markets. Corn and soybean market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage. Grain market traders are focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction. The next data point for grain traders is Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Gold hits nine-month high Tuesday

January 24, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic data as its composite purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 50.2 in January from 49.3 in December and beating market expectations.

Gold prices rallied to a nine-month high overnight. The recent depreciation in the U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market is partly responsible for gold’s surge. However, longtime market watchers are wondering if metals traders sense the geopolitical landscape will significantly heat up in the coming months. An interesting news headline this morning from Barron’s: “A summer of sovereign debt crises could be coming. Is the Fed ready?” Meantime, a headline from the Wall Street Journal today reads: “Hopes for a markets recovery hinge on big drop in inflation.” In other words, if inflation heats back up again, the general marketplace would be in big trouble. Maybe gold traders are sensing that scenario may occur, too.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $81.65 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.5%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, the U.S. flash and services purchasing managers indexes (PMIs), and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-week high on Monday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,056.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at Monday’s low of 3,980.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after prices hit a four-week high Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 12,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,750.00 and then at Monday’s low of 11,650.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 130 24/32 and then at last Friday’s high of 131 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 129 18/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 115.07.0 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 114.19.0 and then at 114.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit an eight-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0838 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $82.66 and then at $83.14. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.75 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher overnight, on corrective bounces from the solid selling pressure seen Monday. Recent risk aversion in the general marketplace is still a bearish element for the grain markets. Corn and soybean market bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Quieter start to trading week Monday

January 23, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, a Wall Street Journal headline reads, “Fed sets milder course on rate increases.” Reporter Nick Timiraos said Fed officials are to slow interest rate increases at upcoming FOMC meetings and debate how much higher to raise them after gaining more confidence inflation will ease further this year. Timiraos is said to have an inside edge on getting high-level Fed officials to speak directly with him.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly higher and trading around $82.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.504%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the leading economic indicators report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at the January high of 4,035.25. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,901.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the January high of 11,759.50 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 11,308.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high late last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 24/32 and then at Friday’s high of 131 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high late last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.07.0 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.20.0 and then at 114.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit an eight-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0838 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $82.66 and then at $83.14. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $78.45. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were lower overnight. Recent risk aversion in the general marketplace is a bearish element for the grain markets. Corn and soybean market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Still some risk aversion Friday

January 20, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to slightly firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is not as robust as that seen the first half of January.

The marketplace is so far not being impacted significantly by the U.S. Congress and its debt ceiling standoff. Read a Barron’s story today: “Congress is playing with the fire of U.S. government bonds, the bedrock of the global financial system. If lawmakers put dynamite in that foundation by allowing the U.S. to default on interest payments, it will likely cause an earthquake.”

Gold prices hit a nine-month high overnight, boosted in part by bullish technicals and some safe-haven demand as the U.S. stock indexes have turned wobbly this week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $81.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.44%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes is light and includes existing home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 3,948.75 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,901.75 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,650.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,308.50 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 27/32 and then at this week’s high of 132 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.21.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.00.0 and then at 114.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices hit an eight-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0927 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $81.50 and then at this week’s high of $82.38. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $78.13 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mixed to mostly weaker overnight. Risk aversion in the general marketplace late this week is a bearish element for the grain markets. Corn and soybean market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the advantage.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Risk aversion returns Thursday

January 19, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls were derailed Wednesday when U.S. retail sales data came in weaker than expected, which revived notions the U.S. economy could slip into recession in 2023.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are a bit lower and trading around $78.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.388%. U.S. Treasury yields have dropped in the wake of a tamer U.S. producer price index report on Wednesday and the weaker U.S. retail sales report.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, new residential construction, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,948.75 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,900.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,650.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,200.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 132 31/32 and then at 134 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.08.0 and then at 116.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.16.0 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices hit an eight-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0927 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.50 Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.13 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly weaker overnight. Risk aversion in the general marketplace late this week is a bearish element for the grain markets. Corn and soybean market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the advantage.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Big U.S. data day Wednesday

January 18, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Corporate earnings reports are in focus this week.

In overnight news, the Japanese yen tumbled against the U.S. dollar as the Bank of Japan made a surprise move to keep its cap in the 10-year government bond yield at 0.5%. Many thought the BOJ would be hawkish and raise the cap. The BOJ move is an attempt to keep Japanese interest rates low, while global interest rates have been rising.

The Euro zone consumer price index for December came in at up 9.2%, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations.

The International Energy Agency said today that world oil demand will hit a record high this year as China’s economy is expected to see a jump in oil usage.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $81.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.476%.

It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data released Wednesday, including the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, the producer price index, the Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,035.25 and then at 4,075.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 3,961.75 and then at 3,925.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a four-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,800.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,510.25 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the January high of 131 10/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at the overnight low of 129 14/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the January high of 115.15.5 and then at 115.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114.16.0 and then at this week’s low of 114.09.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices hit an eight-month high Tuesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0916 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $83.00 and then at $84.00 Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.55 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the advantage. The grain market bulls have gained some fresh momentum this week, possibly as the big funds are looking to get long on ideas of better global economic growth this year fueling better demand for the grains.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Some risk aversion Tues. amid downbeat China data

January 17, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Corporate earnings reports are in focus this week.

In overnight/weekend news, China got more downbeat economic data, as Covid continues to punish the world’s second-largest economy. China’s economic growth slowed to 3% in 2022 from 8.1% in 2021, official data said Tuesday. Except for the pandemic year of 2020, that’s the worst annual economic growth rate for China since 1976. The dour China news has traders and investors more risk averse to start this holiday-shortened U.S. trading week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher and trading around $80.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching around 3.549%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but did hit a four-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,028.25 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 3,961.75 and then at 3,925.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading but hit a four-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,638.75 and then at 11,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 11,389.00 and then at 11,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-week high Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 4/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high last Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.29.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.10.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading but hit an eight-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0916 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0758 and then at last week’s low of 1.0689. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $81.50 and then at $83.00 Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.53 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were lower overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Good week for stock market bulls

January 13, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have had a good week as the S&P and Nasdaq hit four-week highs on Thursday. Trader and investor attitudes are more positive, following a U.S. consumer price index report Thursday that showed inflation continuing to recede.

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic news when the bloc’s November industrial output was reported up 2.0%, year-on-year, which is well above market expectations.

China got some downbeat economic data Friday, as its December exports fell 9.9% and imports were down 7.5%, year-on-year. However, those numbers were a bit better than market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $79.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.47%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a good week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,021.50 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,954.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,891.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,579.75 and then at 11,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 11,291.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,094.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 2/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.15.5 and then at 115.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.00.0 and then at 114.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback from recent good gains. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0911 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.0758 and then at this week’s low of 1.0689. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have had a good week. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the January high of $81.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher overnight. Corn and soybean bulls got a boost from bullish USDA data on Thursday. Corn and wheat market bulls have the near-term technical advantage and both have momentum now. Wheat futures bears still have the advantage, but if corn and beans continue to rally then wheat will likely be pulled higher, too.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. CPI on deck Thursday a.m.

January 12, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward near steady openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace was more subdued overnight as traders are awaiting a major U.S. inflation data point: Thursday morning’s consumer price index report for December. The CPI headline number is expected to come in at up 6.5%, year-on-year, which compares to the 7.1% rise reported in the November report. Said analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA: “This inflation print has been the main topic of conversation all week. The U.S. jobs report last Friday changed the dynamic in the markets and ensured that not only was this CPI report going to be important but in all likelihood pivotal ahead of next month’s Fed meeting.” If the CPI headline number is a big miss from the consensus forecast, look for very active trading in many markets in the immediate aftermath of the 8:30 a.m. EST release of the report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $78.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.535%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a good week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,934.50 and then at this week’s low of 3,891.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 11,239.75 and then at this week’s low of 11,094.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130 1/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at this week’s low of 127 30/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.23.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.26.5 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0822 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at this week’s low of 1.0689. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report and the monthly USDA supply and demand report. The monthly USDA report is likely to prompt significant moves in the grain markets after its 12 noon EST release. Corn and wheat market bulls have faded recently to begin to suggest near-term market tops are in place. Soybean bulls remain more resilient, led by the surge in meal futures.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Traders await U.S. inflation data out on Thursday

January 11, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is not robust early in the new year, amid most major central banks that are still-hawkish on their monetary policies. However, risk aversion is not keen, either, due to hopes China’s economy, the second-largest in the world, will see improved growth after the Chinese government relaxed Covid restrictions.

In overnight news, it appears most of the U.S. airline industry has seen its flights suspended due to a computer malfunction of unknown nature. The first thing that comes to many market watchers’ minds is a major cyber attack from a foreign country that could prompt a retaliation from the U.S.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher on a corrective bounce prices Monday hit a 6.5-month low. Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly up and trading around $75.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.574%.

Traders are awaiting the next major U.S. inflation data point: Thursday’s consumer price index report for December. The CPI headline number is expected to come in at up 6.5%, year-on-year, which compares to the 7.1% rise reported in the November report.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,973.25 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,891.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,385.50 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,094.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130 1/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 127 30/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.23.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.26.5 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0812 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at this week’s low of 1.0689. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $76.74 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $73.47 and then at the January low of $72.46. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly firmer overnight. Corn and wheat market bulls have faded recently to begin to suggest near-term market tops are in place. Soybean bulls remain more resilient, led by the surge in meal futures. Grain traders will continue to gauge general marketplace sentiment in their daily trading decisions. Risk-on trading days in the general marketplace would favor the grain market bulls, while keener risk aversion days would favor the grain market bears.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Powell on deck Tuesday

January 10, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed
toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
Traders and investors today are awaiting the morning remarks from Federal
Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who will be speaking at a Riksbank
conference in Sweden. Despite a “Goldilocks” U.S. jobs report last Friday,
Fed officials’ remarks since then are still leaning hawkish on U.S.
monetary policy and a “higher for longer” interest rate scenario.

Risk appetite in the general marketplace has improved a bit this week as
China has been opening up its businesses and its borders in a pivot from
its strict Covid restrictions.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer on a
corrective bounce after strong losses Monday that pushed the index to a
multi-month low. Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly up and
trading around $75.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S.
10-year Treasury note is presently fetching around 3.558%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson
Redbook and chain store sales reports, the NFIB small business index, the
IDB/TIPP economic optimism index and monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S.
trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,973.25 and then at 4,000.00.
Support for active traders is seen at 3,850.00 and then at 3,800.00.
Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S.
trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 11,385.50 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-
term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at the January low of
10,751.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of
130 1/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s
low of 128 16/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.23.5 and
then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low
of 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading, on
a corrective pullback after hitting a 6.5-month high on Monday. Bulls have
the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds
shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0812 and then
at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0730 and then at this week’s
low of 1.0689. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading.
The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance
at this week’s high of $76.74 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at $74.00 and then at the January low of $72.46.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly lower overnight. Risk appetite in the general
marketplace has down-ticked a bit Tuesday. Corn and wheat market bulls
have faded recently to begin to suggest near-term market tops are in
place. Soybean bulls remain more resilient, led by the surge in meal
futures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading
accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to
you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1)
decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the
size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical
in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A
VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in
futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial
experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your
obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your
exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the
risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

More upbeat marketplace Monday

January 9, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is keener to start the trading week, following a “Goldilocks” U.S. jobs report last Friday that hints the U.S. economy this year just may come in for a so-called soft landing, instead of going into recession, amid an aggressive monetary-policy-tightening program from the Federal Reserve. Also, spirits are upbeat as China continues to open up its borders and its economy, including opening travel between Hong Kong and mainland China.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly higher and trading around $76.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching around 3.597%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly up and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,950.00 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,900.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,350.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 10,751.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 129 16/32 and then at 130 even. Shorter-term support lies at 128 even and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 114.11.5 and then at 114.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0767 and then at the December high of 1.0807. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0689 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at the overnight low of $73.47. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Prices were mixed to firmer overnight. More upbeat trader and investor attitudes in the marketplace this week should add some buying support to the grains. Bulls had faded recently to begin to still suggest near-term market tops are in place in the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

It’s jobs Friday

January 6, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Trading activity was subdued overnight ahead of what is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month: this morning’s employment situation report for December from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000, following a rise of 263,000 in the November report. On Thursday, the U.S. ADP national employment report came in at up 235,000 jobs in December, compared to the consensus forecast of up 153,000. The stronger ADP report has some market watchers suspecting today’s non-farm jobs number may be stronger, too.

Analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA said today in an email dispatch: “The November (U.S. jobs) report contained everything the Federal Reserve did not want to see: strong jobs growth, with upward revisions to prior releases, much higher wages than anticipated and weaker participation. If that’s a blip in the trend, it’s no big deal. But a second consecutive month would deliver a sledgehammer to hopes of a lower terminal rate. The Fed has remained extremely hawkish throughout all of this, through fear of feeding investors’ craving for a dovish pivot and unintentionally easing financial conditions. But another strong jobs report today would further justify such a hawkish approach and perhaps send risk assets into a bit of a tailspin as the prospect of a higher terminal rate increases alongside recession risks.”

In overnight news, the Euro zone December consumer price index rose 9.2%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 10.1% in November, and was a bit lower than the consensus forecast of up 9.7%. The core CPI (minus food and energy) came in up 5.2% in December.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $73.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.727%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the ISM report on business services, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,906.75 and then at 3,919.75. Support for active traders is seen at the December low of 3,788.50 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 11,182.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the December low of 10,758.75 and then at the October low of 10,595.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 4/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 126 15/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.15.5 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 112.12.5 and then at the December low of 111.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a four-month low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at Thursday’s high of 1.0679. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0500 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $72.46 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer overnight on upside corrections after strong losses posted this week. Bulls have faded this week to begin to suggest near-term market tops are in place in the grains. Risk aversion in the marketplace at present has the grain market bulls still timid. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Big U.S. data day Thursday

January 5, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is not keen this week due to worries about a global economic slowdown in 2023. In the coming weeks, keep a closer eye on the crude oil market, as its price trajectory will give the marketplace a very good reading on the global economic growth prospects in 2023. Nymex crude oil prices are higher early today and trading around $74.50 a barrel. However, oil’s price drop the first two trading days of the new year was the steepest, percentage-wise, in over 30 years–suggesting dour prospects for any robust world economic growth this year.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for November came in at up 27.1%, year-on-year, mostly due to rising energy costs. However, excluding energy, the PPI was still up 13.1% on the year.

The other key outside market today sees the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.699%.

Traders and investors are starting to focus on Friday’s U.S. December employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000, following a rise of 263,000 in the November report.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data releases Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the global services PMI and the monthly retail chain store sales index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,906.75 and then at 3,919.75. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,814.50 and then at the December low of 3,788.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,182.00 and then at 11,411.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 10,844.75 and then at the December low of 10,758.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 4/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 126 17/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.15.5 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 112.26.5 and then at 112.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a three-month-old uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0736 and then at last week’s high of 1.0767. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0570 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a corrective bounce from this week’s strong losses. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $72.73 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed to firmer overnight on upside corrections after strong losses posted Wednesday. Bulls have faded this week to begin to suggest near-term market tops are in place in the grains. Risk aversion in the marketplace at present has the grain market bulls still timid.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Marketplace still pensive Wed., ahead of U.S. data

January 4, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. There is some heightened trepidation in the marketplace this first week of the new year. Potentially slowing economic growth in the major industrialized countries along with problematic price inflation in 2023 are keeping traders pensive.

One gauge of anxiety in the marketplace was seen Tuesday, when gold prices posted solid gains despite a strong rally in the U.S. dollar index. In past months the USDX and gold prices have traded in a strong inverse relationship on a daily basis. The rally in the gold market Tuesday was due to safe-haven demand amid wobbly global stocks markets and worries about rising Covid infections in China continuing to crimp the world’s second-largest economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $75.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.681%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the MBA mortgage applications survey, the Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report, the ISM report on business manufacturing, domestic auto industry sales and the minutes from the last FOMC meeting.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,906.75 and then at 3,919.75. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,839.25 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,182.00 and then at 11,411.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 10,920.25 and then at last week’s low of 10,758.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 128 even and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 17/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 113.20.0 and then at 113.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112.26.5 and then at 112.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a three-month-old uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0736 and then at last week’s high of 1.0767. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0600 and then at this week’s low of 1.0570. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $77.42 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

Prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Risk aversion in the marketplace at present has the grain market bulls very timid. Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading this week. Wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans bulls still have the chart edge as prices are in an uptrend.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. stock indexes firmer, bulls hoping for better year

January 3, 2023 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The stock indexes begin the new year with some optimism after the S&P 500 stock index in 2022 suffered its worst year since 2008.

Inflation worries, central bank monetary policies and the Russia-Ukraine war are likely to remain near the front burner of the marketplace in 2023.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $79.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.761%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes construction spending.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,906.75 and then at 3,919.75. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,842.75 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,171.00 and then at 11,411.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 10,952.00 and then at last week’s low of 10,758.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 127 even and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at the overnight low of 125 3/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.02.0 and then at 113.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112.12.5 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are sharply and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a three-month-old uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0650 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0570 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the overnight high of $81.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $76.79 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Corn bulls start 2023 with the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending higher. Wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but bulls are working on fledgling price uptrends that suggest near-term market bottoms are in place. Soybeans bulls still have the chart edge as prices are in an uptrend. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Quieter end to trading year 2022

December 30, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is quieter this week following the Christmas holiday and just ahead of the new year. Traders will hit the exit doors early today, ahead of the three-day New Year holiday weekend.

The marketplace in the new year will continue to closely monitor China’s battle with Covid. Broker SP Angel this morning reports in an email dispatch:

“Chinese Covid rates are going to have a substantial impact on the ability of factories to produce, transporters to deliver, builders to build, and on finance companies to finance. This could stall the Chinese economy for a few months, though we suspect China’s authorities will do their best to keep the wheels on. The authorities are already telling Covid-positive people to go to work, a policy which is likely to spread the infection faster than in any other nation. The narrative seems to be that Omicron is milder than Delta and presents a lesser risk to nation. China is also asking families to sign Cremation forms saying: “I guarantee that the deceased XXX did not die of #COVID, and I will be fully responsible for any false claim.” (The Telegraph). Chinese covid deaths have risen to 9,000 a day, around double last week’s mortality rate, according to U.K. research firm Airfinity, the world’s first dedicated COVID-19 health analytics and intelligence platform. (Reuters). Airfinity also reckons cumulative deaths reached 100,000 over the past 30 days with some 18.6 million infections using modelling based on data from Chinese provinces before recent changes on reporting cases. The research group expects China’s Covid infections to reach their first peak on Jan. 13 with 3.7 million cases a day and for Covid deaths to peak on Jan. 23 around 25,000 a day with cumulative deaths reaching 1.7 million by end-April. China has officially reported just 10 COVID deaths since 7th December.”

With the lack of fresh, major business news this week, let’s look at some news headlines Friday morning from the Dow Jones Newswire.

“This was a terrible year for stocks; next year could surprise—positively”

“China’s Covid easing and policy pivots brighten outlook for stocks”

“Small businesses find some relief from hiring woes”

“Copper set for first annual decline in four years”

“What a crazy year: a bear market (stocks), oil’s pop, and those bond yields”

“Higher rates threaten U.S. renovation boom”

“(U.S.) mortgage rates log biggest yearly rise”

“Dollar rally loses some steam”

“Crypto went 12 rounds with Mike Tyson in 2022; now, Bitcoin whales are buying”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $78.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.854%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the Chicago ISM business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,900.50 and then at last week’s high of 3,919.75. Support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at the December low of 3,788.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,183.75 and then at last week’s high of 11,411.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 10,758.75 and then at the October low of 10,595.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 125 31/32 and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 124 20/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 112.22.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 112.04.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at today’s week’s high of 1.0753 and then at the December high of 1.0807. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0665 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at this week’s high of $81.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.79 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were mixed overnight. Not much new this week. Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are now trending higher. Wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but bulls are working on fledgling price uptrends that suggest near-term market bottoms are in place. Soybeans bulls still have the chart edge as prices are in an uptrend. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Muted holiday trading Thursday

December 29, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were flat to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is quieter this week following the Christmas holiday and just ahead of the new year.

The World Gold Council reports central bank gold buying at the highest rate since 1967, with Russia and China likely the leaders. “Sanctions on Russia and strained relations between the West and China have led to both countries adopting a policy of ‘de-dollarization’ to rely less on the policies of the U.S. central bank and government,” said broker SP Angel in a morning email dispatch. According to the World Gold Council, central banks bought 399 metric tons of gold in the third quarter, compared to 186 metric tons in the first quarter and 88 metric tons in the first quarter of 2022. Officially, Turkey led buying with 29 metric tons in the third quarter, though many central banks including China and Russia do not always report gold holdings.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $77.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.875%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a six-week low late last week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,900.50 and then at last week’s high of 3,919.75. Support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at the December low of 3,788.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a seven-week low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 11,183.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 10,758.75 and then at the October low of 10,595.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 125 31/32 and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 124 22/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 112.22.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112.00.0 and then at 111.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0733 and then at the December high of 1.0807. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0634 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at this week’s high of $81.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.79 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower overnight. Not much new this week. Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are now trending higher. Wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but bulls are working on fledgling price uptrends that suggest near-term market bottoms are in place. Soybeans bulls still have the chart edge as prices are in an uptrend.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Marketplace on Wed. awaiting fresh inputs

December 28, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is quieter following the Christmas holiday and just ahead of the new year. Many markets are looking for fresh fundamental inputs to drive price direction.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $78.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.832%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey and pending home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting a six-week low late last week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 3,919.75 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,788.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 11,185.00 and then at last week’s high of 11,411.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 10,870.50 and then at 10,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a four-week low on Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 127 15/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 125 even and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a four-week low on Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 113.06.5 and then at 113.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112.00.0 and then at 111.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.0731 and then at the December high of 1.0807. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0634 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls are working on a fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of $81.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were steady to mixed overnight. Not much new this week. Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but bulls are working on fledgling price uptrends that suggest near-term market bottoms are in place. Soybeans bulls still have the chart edge as prices are in an uptrend.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Quiet start to holiday-shortened trading week

December 27, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, December 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is quieter following the Christmas holiday weekend that saw markets closed Monday.

China’s relaxation of its strict Covid policies remains in focus, with the marketplace wondering if the pivot by Chinese authorities will prompt faster growth in the world’s second-largest economy. Or, will the pivot prompt such a surge in Covid infections that China’s economy will be further damaged in the near term?

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $80.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.777%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the advance economic indicators report, the monthly U.S. house price index, the S&P-CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price indexes and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a six-week low late last week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 3,919.75 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,850.00 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 11,411.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 10,870.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 127 15/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.06.5 and then at 113.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112.20.0 and then at 112.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.0807 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0634 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls are working on a fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $81.06 and then at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans bulls have the chart edge, led by the recent surge in soybean meal futures, and both markets are in uptrends on the daily bar charts.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Quieter, pre-holiday trading Friday

December 23, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins, on tepid corrective rebounds and short covering after hitting six-week lows on Thursday. Trading was quieter overnight and volumes are likely to be low on this last trading day before the Christmas holiday over the weekend.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data on Thursday was a wake-up call to traders and investors that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to stop tightening U.S. monetary policy until well into 2023. The better gross domestic product report also suggested the U.S. economy is not ready to slip into recession.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $79.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.714%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, durable goods orders, new residential sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a six-week low on Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,900.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,919.75. Support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,788.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,411.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 10,870.50 and then at the November low of 10,746.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 129 even and then at Tuesday’s high of 129 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 127 19/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 113.29.0 and then at this week’s high of 114.05.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 113.00.0 and then at 112.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. Both are above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0726 and then at the December high of 1.0807. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0634 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls are working on a fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $78.30 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer in overnight trading. Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A major arctic blast in the U.S. midsection is boosting wheat futures, on notions the dormant crops could receive winterkill. Soybeans bulls have the chart edge, led by the recent surge in soybean meal futures, and both markets are in uptrends on the daily bar charts.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Markets pensive on rising Covid cases in China

December 22, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Trading volumes are likely to wane just ahead of the Christmas holiday over the weekend and as a massive winter storm pounds much of the U.S. and is heading for the east coast.

Rising Covid infections in China have the marketplace pensive late this week. Bloomberg reported China is experiencing 1 million new infections and 5,000 virus deaths each day, following the Chinese government’s relaxation of Covid restrictions.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $79.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.651%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the third estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product, the Chicago Fed national activity index, leading economic indicators and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,950.00 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,855.50 and then at this week’s low of 3,803.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,411.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 11,181.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,043.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 129 even and then at Tuesday’s high of 129 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 127 19/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 114.04.5 and then at this week’s high of 114.23.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.09.5 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. Both are above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0726 and then at the December high of 1.0807. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0643 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are up and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.30 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn and wheat bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, downtrends on the daily bar charts have been negated to suggest those markets have put in near-term bottoms. A major arctic blast in the U.S. midsection is boosting wheat futures, on notions the dormant crops could receive winterkill. Soybeans bulls have the chart edge, led by the recent surge in soybean meal futures, and both markets are in uptrends on the daily bar charts.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Marketplace digesting BOJ move; focus now on holidays

December 21, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trading volumes are likely to wane ahead of the Christmas holiday over the weekend and as a massive winter storm pounds much of the U.S. and is heading for the east coast.

The marketplace is still digesting the Bank of Japan move Tuesday to tighten its monetary policy by raising the cap for the interest rate on its 10-year bond by 0.25%. The Japanese yen surged against the U.S. dollar. Global bond and stock markets were rattled on the news because Japan is a big player in global bond markets. Japanese citizens are big savers and put much of their money into global stocks and bonds. With the higher domestic bond yield cap, Japanese citizens and companies may opt to keep more of their money at home. Speculators worldwide had for years been putting on a yen-based “carry trade” that has suddenly become very shaky. With world financial markets so highly intertwined, all of the above at least temporarily spooked the global marketplace. Some Fed watchers are saying the BOJ move underscores the notion that global inflation remains problematic and that the Fed won’t be able to do any pivot on its hawkish monetary policy in 2023.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $77.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.681%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, existing home sales, the consumer confidence index and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a five-week low Tuesday. Recent price action suggests a near-term market top is in place and the bears still have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,899.00 and then at 3,934.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,803.50 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a five-week low overnight on Tuesday. Recent price action suggests a near-term market top is in place and the bears still have momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,411.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,043.50 and then at the November low of 10,746.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 129 even and then at Tuesday’s high of 129 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 127 19/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 114.04.5 and then at this week’s high of 114.23.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113.09.5 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.0807 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0643 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $75.80 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were a bit firmer in overnight trading. Not much new this week. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts. Soybeans bulls have the chart edge, led by the recent surge in soybean meal futures, and both markets are in uptrends on the daily bar charts.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Quieter start to trading week Monday

December 19, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, December 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a quieter start to the trading week—the week before the Christmas holiday. Reports say the relaxed Covid restrictions in China have caused a surge in infections in the world’s most populous country. Traders will continue to closely monitor this situation. Some China watchers are saying the Covid infections and deaths situation in China could become very bad in the coming few months.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $74.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.522%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the NAHB housing market index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a five-week low last Friday and closing at a technically bearish weekly low close. Recent price action suggests a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 3,934.50 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,855.25 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a five-week low last Friday and closing at a technically bearish weekly low close. Recent price action suggests a near-term market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 11,275.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 1/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 114.30.5 and then at the December high of 115.11.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 114.06.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0726 and then at the December high of 1.0807. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0649 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $76.57 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to lower in overnight trading. Not much new, overall. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Corn and wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts. Soybeans bulls have the chart edge, led by the recent surge in soybean meal futures, and both markets are in uptrends on the daily bar charts.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Stock markets suffer from hawkish central banks

December 16, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings and five-week lows when the New York day session begins. The stock markets continue to suffer a hangover from a still-hawkish FOMC meeting this week that saw the Fed raise its main interest rate by 0.5% and stick with its rhetoric that more monetary policy tightening is needed to successfully tamp down inflation. The European Central Bank on Thursday also raised its main interest rate by a half-point and also sounded a hawkish tone on its monetary policy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $74.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.497%.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for November came in at up 10.1%, year-on-year, which was close to market expectations and compares to a revised rise of 10.0% in the October report.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Tuesday’s price spike to a three-month high and then prices backing way off suggests a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,934.50 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,871.25 and then at 3,825.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Tuesday’s price spike to a three-month high and then prices backing way off suggests a near-term market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,487.75 and then at 11,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,312.50 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 13/32 and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.30.5 and then at this week’s high of 115.11.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.08.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a 5.5-month high Thursday. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0807 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0662 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $76.57 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Not much new this week. Corn and wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid downtrends in place on the daily bar charts. Soybeans bulls have the chart edge, led by the recent surge in soybean meal futures, and both markets are in uptrends on the daily bar charts.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Central banks in focus Thursday

December 15, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. A hawkish Federal Reserve has traders and investors in a “risk-off” stance Thursday. Said market analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA: “Safe to say, investors simply didn’t see that (the still-hawkish Fed rhetoric) coming. Two months of better-than-expected U.S. inflation data were enough to convince investors that the Fed would not only ease off the brake but signal it would do so more in the coming months. Whether through complacency or a desperate desire to see value in equity markets, investors overlooked the concerns that have plagued the U.S. central bank for months: The fear of entrenched inflation has been a much greater concern” for the Fed. “Higher for longer” is the marketplace takeaway from this week’s FOMC meeting—meaning higher interest rates for a longer period of time—to ensure the Fed tamps down hard on inflation.

Traders are awaiting the results of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England monetary policy meetings on Thursday. The BOE just raised its main interest rate by 0.5%. The ECB will also likely to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve and the BOE with a half-point rate hike. The central banks of Switzerland and Norway raised their interest rates Thursday but in smaller increments of policy tightening.

China and its fight against Covid remains near the front burner of the marketplace. Broker SP Angel this morning said in an email dispatch there is increasing evidence that China is now “allowing Covid to rip through the population.” There is relatively little vaccination and almost no effective vaccination against Omicron in China. “That means the virus will bypass most of the Covid controls left in place.” The Wall Street Journal said today that “China’s economy took a big hit in November” due to strict Covid lockdown policies.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady trading around $77.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.484%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories, Treasury international capital data and the ISM semi-annual report on business and the economy.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Tuesday’s price spike to a three-month high and then prices backing way off to close nearer the daily low suggests a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,043.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 3,997.00. Support for active traders is seen at the December low of 3,945.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Tuesday’s price spike to a three-month high and then prices backing way off to close nearer the daily low suggests a near-term market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,898.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the December low of 11,535.50 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 13/32 and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.11.5 and then at 115.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114.19.5 and then at 114.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a 5.5-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0768 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0650 and then at this week’s low of 1.0578. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn and wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid downtrends in place on the daily bar charts. Soybeans bulls have the chart edge, led by the recent surge in soybean meal futures, and both markets are in uptrends on the daily bar charts.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. inflation data on deck Tuesday a.m.

December 13, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is awaiting a major U.S. data point this week: this morning’s consumer price index report for November. CPI is seen coming in up 0.3% from October and up 7.3%, year-on-year. A significant miss on the forecast would likely move the markets.

Also featured this week are major central bank meetings. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Powell. The FOMC is mostly likely to raise U.S. interest rates by 0.5%. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet on Thursday and are likely to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve with half-point rate hikes.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly higher and trading around $74.00 a barrel. A major oil pipeline in the U.S. has been shut due to a leak, and that’s supporting Nymex crude oil prices this week. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.596%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index, real earnings and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,100.00 and then at the December high of 4,142.50. Support for active traders is seen at the December low of 3,945.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at the December high of 12,257.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the December low of 11,535.50 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 130 30/32 and then at the December high of 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 114.12.5 and then at 114.24.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113.25.0 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.0674 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0578 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mostly firmer in overnight trading. Corn and wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid downtrends in place on the daily bar charts. Soybeans bulls have the chart edge, led by a surge in soybean meal futures, and both markets are in uptrends on the daily bar charts.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Central banks meet this week

December 12, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, December 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Major central banks will this week complete the most aggressive year for interest-rate hikes in four decades with their fight against inflation still not over even as their economies slow. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Powell. The FOMC is mostly likely to raise U.S. interest rates by 0.5%. Then, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet on Thursday and are likely to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve with half-point rate hikes.

Another major U.S. data point this week will be the consumer price index report for November, out on Tuesday morning. CPI is seen coming in up 7.3%, year-on-year.

A couple of interesting news headlines were on the wires this morning. One from the Wall Street Journal reads, “Markets show more confidence in soft landing.” And a Barron’s headline says, “Bitcoin is in for a big week; traders now see $8,500 as more likely than $34,000.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly lower trading around $70.50 a barrel. Prices last Friday hit an 11-month low. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.523%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 4,024.00 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at the December low of 3,945.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 11,861.25 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the December low of 11,535.50 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the December high of 132 even and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 129 15/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 114.24.5 and then at the December high of 115.06.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113.29.0 and then at 113.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.0674 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0578 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and near Friday’s 11-month low. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.32 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn and wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans bulls have the chart edge, led by a surge in soybean meal futures.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Markets quieter ahead of Friday U.S. PPI data

December 9, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have faded this week as near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts have been negated. However, risk appetite this week increased mildly as China has eased up on its strict Covid lockdown measures, suggesting the world’s second-largest economy may start to grow at a faster pace.

Traders are awaiting the U.S. data point of the week Friday morning: the producer price index report for November. PPI is seen coming in at up 0.2% from October—the same rise as seen in last month’s PPI report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly higher trading around $72.00 a barrel. Prices Thursday hit an 11-month low. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.492%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes monthly wholesale trade and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering following this week’s selling pressure. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded this week. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 4,047.50 and then at this week’s high of 4,107.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,945.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,124.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,535.50 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a 2.5-month high Wednesday and bulls have the technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 even and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.06.5 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 113.25.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0674 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0521 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting an 11-month low Wednesday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $71.12 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mostly slightly firmer in overnight trading. Traders are awaiting this morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Soybean bulls are holding the near-term technical advantage, mainly because meal futures are surging. Grain traders in the near term will focus on the outside markets and on risk appetite in the marketplace.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Quieter Thurs., ahead of Fri. U.S. inflation data

December 8, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have faded this week as near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts have been negated.

However, risk sentiment worldwide has up-ticked a bit this week as China has significantly eased up on its strict Covid lockdown measures, suggesting the world’s second-largest economy may start to pick up steam at a faster pace now.

Traders are awaiting the next U.S. inflation data point, which is Friday morning’s producer price index report for November. PPI is seen coming in at up 0.2% from October—the same rise as seen in last month’s PPI report.

In other news, a Barron’s headline today reads: “Bitcoin is stagnant…; crypto trading has fallen off a cliff.” The crypto bulls were not helped any this week when JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon said the crypto currencies were a “sideshow” and owning crypto tokens is like “owning a pet rock.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer after hitting a 3.5-month low earlier this week. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher trading around $72.50 a barrel. Prices Wednesday hit an 11-month low. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.442%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday is light and includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4.000.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 4,047.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,945.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,800.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 2.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 even and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.06.5 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.16.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 114.02.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0674 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0500 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting an 11-month low Wednesday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $71.75 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer in overnight trading. Traders are awaiting this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Soybean bulls are holding the near-term technical advantage, mainly because meal futures are surging. Grain traders in the near term will focus on the outside markets and on risk appetite in the marketplace. The next big data point for the grain markets is Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. stock index bulls fading

December 7, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls are fading fast this week and near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts have been negated.

In overnight news, following recent public protests, China has announced sweeping revisions to its strict Covid measures that ultimately failed. The new guidelines keep some restrictions in place but largely scrap the health code that has been mandatory for entering most public places and roll back mass testing. Health experts now say China is underprepared for the surge in cases it could now see. Beijing has fallen short on preparations like bolstering the elderly vaccination rate, increasing surge and intensive care capacity in hospitals, and stockpiling antiviral medications.

Meantime, China’s trade surplus declined to $69.84 billion in November from $71.7 billion in the same month last year. That’s far below market forecasts of a surplus of $78.1 billion. This was the smallest trade surplus since April, due to weakening global and domestic demand. China’s exports slumped 8.7%, year over year, the second straight month of decline, amid weakening overseas demand due to high inflation and supply disruptions. Imports fell at a faster 10.6%, the second straight month of decrease as domestic demand weakened amid widespread Covid curbs.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone gross domestic product in the third quarter was revised to up 2.3%, year-on-year, compared to the last estimate of up 2.1%. The revised number was slightly better than expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $74.00 a barrel. Prices overnight hit an 11-month low. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.535%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, revised productivity and costs, consumer credit and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4.000.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 4,047.50. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,952.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,800.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 17/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at this week’s low of 128 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 114.28.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.25.0 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0674 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0500 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit an 11-month low overnight. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have gained downside momentum this week. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $72.75 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were steady to firmer in overnight trading. Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Soybean bulls are holding the near-term technical advantage, mainly because meal futures are surging. Grain traders in the near term will focus on the outside markets and on risk appetite in the marketplace. The next big data point for the grain markets is Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Stocks wobbly after stronger U.S. manuf. data Mon.

December 6, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. A stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing report on Monday reinforced notions the Federal Reserve will have to keep its monetary policy tighter for longer. That helped to pressure the stock market and pushed the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields higher. The ISM report also fell into the camp of those market watchers who think the U.S. may be able to avoid an economic recession.

In overnight news, Chinese Communist party officials have admitted that the public protests prompted the Chinese government to relax its Covid restrictions.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $76.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.573%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report and the U.S. international trade report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4.107.50 and then at last week’s high of 4,142.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at 3,974.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,124.25 and then at last week’s high of 12,257.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 11,861.75 and then at 11,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 130 9/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 128 12/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 114.28.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance Monday’s high of 1.0674 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained downside momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $77.88 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at the December low of $73.60. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Soybean bulls are holding the slight near-term technical advantage, mainly because meal futures are surging. Grain traders in the near term will focus on the outside markets and on risk appetite in the marketplace. The next big data point for the grain markets is Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Stock markets pausing Monday

December 5, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, December 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace has digested last Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report that reinforced notions the Federal Reserve will have to keep in place its tightening of monetary policy for some time to come, in order to slow U.S. economic growth and reduce problematic price inflation.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher after hitting a 3.5-month low Friday. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $82.00 a barrel. As of Monday, the European Union and the U.K. have barred inbound shipments of crude oil from Russia and put a cap of $60 a barrel on EU companies doing business facilitating Russian oil shipments elsewhere in the world. At a meeting over the weekend the OPEC oil cartel lefts its collective crude oil production unchanged. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.515%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the global services PMI, the ISM report on business services, the employment trends index, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 2.5-month high late last week. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,142.50 and then at the September high of 4,194.25. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on a downside correction after prices last week hit a 2.5-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 12,257.75 and then at 12,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a nine-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 130 9/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at Friday’s low of 128 7/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a nine-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 114.28.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114.10.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a five-month high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0663 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $83.34 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $78.40. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were steady to slightly up in overnight trading. Bulls have faded recently. Corn and soybean bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Grain traders in the near term will focus on the outside markets and on risk appetite in the marketplace. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Markets quieter ahead of U.S. jobs report Friday a.m.

December 2, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is subdued heading into this morning’s U.S. employment situation report for November. The key non-farm payrolls figure is expected to come in at up 200,000, compared to the rise of 261,000 seen in the October report. Traders and investors will also closely examine the average hourly earnings component of the jobs report, to assess wage inflation.

Traders continue to monitor the civil unrest in China. The protests are not spiraling out of control, but neither are they going completely away. Reports said China is now clamping down on internet access. Reports also say China is relaxing some its Covid lockdowns (likely due to the public protests), while at the same time China says new Covid infections are declining and vaccinations are on the rise. This has at least temporarily assuaged the marketplace regarding this situation.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for October fell 2.9% from September but was up 30.8%, year-on-year. Those numbers were slightly less than expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting a 3.5-month low overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $81.00 a barrel. There have been some reports this week that OPEC at its meeting this weekend will consider cutting its collective crude oil production. However, other reports say the cartel will leave its production unchanged. It appears the European Union will set a price cap of $60 a barrel on Russian crude oil imports. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.515%.

There is no other major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 2.5-month high Thursday. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,142.50 and then at the September high of 4,194.25. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a 2.5-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,257.75 and then at 12,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a seven-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 130 even and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at Thursday’s low of 127 25/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a nine-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.00.0 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 113.27.0 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a nearly five-month high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0650 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. This week’s price action suggests a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $83.34 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $78.40. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower again in overnight trading. Bulls have faded badly this week. Corn and soybean bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Grain traders in the near term will focus on the outside markets and on risk appetite in the marketplace.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Fed’s Powell leans easy, markets respond

December 1, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins, following strong gains posted Wednesday afternoon. The marketplace deemed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at the Brookings Institution Wednesday afternoon as leaning dovish on U.S. monetary policy. That rallied the U.S. stock market, pressured the U.S. dollar index and dropped U.S. Treasury yields. Gold and silver prices rallied. Powell said the U.S. central bank could slow the pace of monetary policy tightening as soon as the FOMC meeting in two weeks. However, he said the Fed will need to hold policy at restrictive levels “for some time.” Powell added that inflation remains far too high and that future rate hikes are warranted.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has exited the bear market and has entered a new bull market, according to Dow Jones Newswires reports. The DJIA has risen 20% from its recent low. However, the S&P 500 stock index is still on track for its worst year since 2008.

Traders continue to monitor the civil unrest in China. It seems the situation is not spiraling out of control, but neither is it fading away. Reports say China is relaxing some its Covid lockdowns (likely due to the public protests), while at the same time China says new Covid infections are declining and vaccinations are on the rise.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $81.25 a barrel. There have been some reports OPEC at its meeting early next week will consider cutting its collective crude oil production. Other reports say the cartel will leave its production unchanged. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.614%.

Focus is turning to Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for November. The key non-farm payrolls figure is expected to come in at up 200,000, compared to the rise of 261,000 seen in the October report.

It’s another busy U.S. economic data release day Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, personal income and outlays, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, the global manufacturing PMI, monthly chain store sales, and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 2.5-month high overnight. Prices Wednesday closed at a technically bullish monthly high close. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,129.00 and then at of 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday closed at a 2.5-month high close and at a technically bullish monthly high close. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 12,236.00 and then at 12,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 129 even and then at 130 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 25/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher and hit a nine-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 114.16.0 and then at 114.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.20.0 and then at 113.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and close to Monday’s nearly five-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0580 and then at 1.0600. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0473 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a continued rebound after hitting an 11-month low on Monday. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price downtrend on the daily bar chart is in jeopardy. The bears appear to be exhausted to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.50 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $78.40 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower in overnight trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Markplace awaits Powell speech Wed. p.m.

November 30, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data, with the highlight being a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this afternoon at the Brookings Institution. Traders and investors will be watching to see if Powell makes a pivot from a hawkish to a bit more dovish U.S. monetary policy stance, given recent U.S. economic data that hints inflation may have peaked.

In overnight news, reports said public demonstrations in China increased Wednesday after a lull on Tuesday. China security forces are reported to be heavily deployed in major Chinese cities. The protests have prompted Chinese officials to somewhat ease their strict Covid restrictions.

In other news, Euro zone inflation fell in November for the first time since mid-2021, as the consumer price index was up 10%, year-on-year, compared to a reading of up 10.6% in October.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a strong rebound after hitting an 11-month low Monday, and are trading around $80.25 a barrel. There are some reports OPEC at its meeting next week will consider cutting its collective crude oil production. Other reports say the cartel will leave its production unchanged. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.731%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, preliminary corporate profits and the second estimate of third-quarter GDP, advance economic indicators, the ISM Chicago business survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,061.25 and then at of 4,094.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,974.50 and then at last week’s low of 3,937.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,900.50 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,580.50 and then at 11,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 128 even and then at this week’s high of 128 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 113.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 113.27.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 112.28.0 and then at 112.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a nearly five-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0500 and then at this week’s high of 1.0580. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0402 and then at 1.0316. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a continued rebound after hitting an 11-month low on Monday. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bears appear to be exhausted to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.50 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.40 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were steady to firmer in overnight trading. A slight uptick in investor risk appetite at mid-week is friendly for the grain markets. Corn and soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

China unrest eases a bit Tuesday

November 29, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are still very closely monitoring the civil unrest situation in China. Some market watchers are deeming the recent unrest as bullish for stocks and commodities because it will likely force China to back off on its strict Covid lockdowns that have crimped the world’s second-largest economy. Reports said new Covid cases in China are decelerating a bit. It was calmer in Chinese streets Tuesday evening, with no major protesting reported in the media. Reports said Chinese authorities deployed a heavy police presence in major cities to deter a repeat of the weekend demonstrations. Respected authority on China, Bill Bishop of Sinocism, said the government “has a playbook for dealing with these kinds of events and has been hardening the system for many years for just these kinds of threats.” He said the Chinese government will be “pushing harder on propaganda work, censorship and political thought work. And ‘hostile foreign forces’ will be blamed.” Bishop added, “For all the stability maintenance work Beijing has done they really would have a hard time dealing with tens or hundreds of thousands or more people on the streets in one or more cities. I am not expecting anything like that to happen, but you can’t rule it out, and I will bet the security services are not ruling it out.”

Other big market events this week include a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon and the U.S. employment report from the Labor Department on Friday morning.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher on a strong rebound after hitting an 11-month early Monday, and are trading around $79.50 a barrel. There are reports OPEC at its meeting next week will consider cutting the cartel’s collective crude oil production. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.652%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the monthly and quarterly U.S. house price indexes, the S&P CoreLogic/Case-Shiller home price indexes, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,061.25 and then at Friday’s high of 4,094.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,937.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 11,900.50 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 11,526.50 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 128 17/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 127 even and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 113.27.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113.03.5 and then at last Friday’s low of 112.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a nearly five-month high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0500 and then at Monday’s high of 1.0580. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0425 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher on a strong rebound after hitting an 11-month low on Monday. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bears now appear to be exhausted to begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were steady to firmer in overnight trading. The China unrest is still bearish for the grains, but it appears that situation has eased a bit, which may prompt buyers back into the grains. Corn and soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

China unrest rattles markets Monday

November 28, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is uneasy to start the trading week, as there is civil unrest in China over its strict zero-Covid policies. Reports said there were demonstrations across China over the weekend. It’s the largest show of discontent since the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989. China is the world’s second-largest economy and the most populous nation. The geopolitical and economic consequences of a further escalation in protests and any crackdown by Chinese authorities would be huge.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower, hit a 10-month low overnight, and are trading around $74.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.692%.

Other big market events this week include a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon and the U.S. employment report from the Labor Department on Friday morning.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, profit taking after hitting a nine-week high on Friday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,061.25 and then at Friday’s high of 4,094.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,937.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,865.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 11,526.50 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a seven-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 128 17/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 127 even and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a seven-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.27.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 113.00.0 and then at Friday’s low of 112.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly higher and hit a nearly five-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0580 and then at the 1.0600. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0500 and then at the overnight low of 1.0425. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a 10-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at the overnight high of $76.49. Look for sell stops just below technical support $73.00 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mostly lower in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Increased risk aversion amid the China unrest is bearish for the grains. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Markets quieter Friday amid U.S. “Black Friday” shopping

November 25, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly firmer and Asian shares mostly weaker. U.S. stock indexes are headed for mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Many U.S. markets close early Friday, the day after the Thanksgiving holiday in which U.S. markets were closed. Today is typically one of the slowest U.S. trading days of the year.

Today is “Black Friday” in the U.S., where holiday shoppers go wild. Early results on U.S. consumer spending will be closely examined by market watchers, including the Federal Reserve.

The marketplace remains subdued late this week as Covid-19 cases in China are rising at a record pace as China’s government tries to deal with its slumping economy amid Covid-related lockdowns. China’s central bank lowered its reserve requirement ratio by 25 basis points Friday in a bid to support the world’s second-largest economy. “Combined with other measures to boost the property market and ease Covid curbs, the cut could be supportive over the medium term when growth remains highly uncertain,” said one analyst.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $79.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.722%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and near the recent for-the-move high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November high of 4,050.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,937.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at the November high of 12,118.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 11,720.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,526.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a seven-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 128 13/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 127 even and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.24.5 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112.20.0 and then at this week’s low of 112.11.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0531 and then at the November high of 1.0568. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0400 and then at this week’s low of 1.0316. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $81.00 and then at this week’s high of $82.36. Look for sell stops just below technical support $78.00 and then at the overnight low of $76.89. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Grain markets close early today. Grain bulls are squelched due to ongoing demand worries amid the China Covid lockdowns. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Grain traders will continue to closely monitor the key outside markets: the U.S. dollar index and crude oil prices.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

FOMC minutes on deck Wed. p.m.

November 23, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Most global stock markets were slightly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace remains tentative at mid-week as Covid-19 cases in China continue to rise and are crimping the world’s second-largest economy. Newswire reports this morning quoted Chinese officials as saying they will further ease China’s monetary policies in an effort to produce more economic growth.

Meantime, the Euro zone reported its November manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) at 47.3, which was slightly above market expectations and compares to the October reading of 46.4. Still, a reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. It was the fifth month in a row of manufacturing sector contraction for the Euro zone.

Today is the busiest day for U.S. economic data this holiday-shortened trading week, including the minutes from the last FOMC monetary policy meeting, to be released in the early afternoon. The minutes may contain a few new clues on the future path and timing of Fed monetary policy. U.S. markets are closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $79.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.756%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMI), new residential sales, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November high of 4,050.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,937.50 and then at last week’s low of 3,912.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at the November high of 12,118.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,526.50 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a six-week high on Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 127 even and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at this week’s low of 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.00.0 and then at 113.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 112.11.5 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0436 and then at 1.0500. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0316 and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.38 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. Not much new this week, in quiet trading. Bulls are being squelched due to ongoing demand worries amid the China Covid lockdowns. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Grain traders will continue to closely monitor the key outside markets: the U.S. dollar index and crude oil prices.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

Jim Wyckoff

Quieter marketplace Tuesday

November 22, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite remains muted early this week as Covid cases surge in China. News reports are calling China’s largest city, Beijing, a “ghost town.” Some analysts are saying 20% of China’s economy is being negatively impacted by the Covid lockdowns.

Wednesday will be the busiest day for U.S. economic data, including the minutes from the last FOMC monetary policy meeting, to be released in the early afternoon. A Barron’s headline today reads: “Don’t tune out for the holidays; the Fed minutes will be a must watch.” The minutes may contain fresh clues on the future path and timing of Fed monetary policy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The crude oil market was roiled Monday by reports Saudi Arabia is contemplating raising its crude oil production—only to have Saudi officials deny the report. Oil prices fell to an 11-month low shortly after the news reports hit the wires. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.793%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at the November high of 4,050.75. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,912.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 11,756.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the Monday’s high of 126 7/32 and then at the November high of 126 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 125 even and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 113.00.0 and then at 113.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 112.11.5 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0417 and then at 1.0500. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0316 and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage as a fledgling price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.00 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. Bulls are being squelched due to demand worries amid the China Covid lockdowns. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Grain traders will continue to closely monitor the key outside markets: the U.S. dollar index and crude oil prices.