Tuesday, March 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stocks markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite may have up-ticked just slightly Tuesday as Russia and Ukraine are holding more ceasefire talks. Also, the grind of that war and no major new developments recently have somewhat numbed the marketplace. Limiting trader and investor enthusiasm, especially in the raw commodity sector, is Covid cases that are on the rise in China, including China placing its largest city of Shanghai in a major rolling lockdown. It seems the pandemic just cannot be tamped down for long.
The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $107.50 a barrel. An OPEC meeting is scheduled for Thursday to discuss cartel production levels from May forward. The U.S. dollar index is lower early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.423%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail reports, the monthly house price index, the consumer confidence index and the S&P Core-Logic home price indexes.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a nine-week high in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,509.75 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a two-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the February high of 15,261.25 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 14,658.75 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract low. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 148 21/32 and then at 149 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s contract low of 146 10/32 and then at 146 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and near Monday’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 122.06.0 and then at 122.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 120.30.5 and then at 120.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1100 and then at 1.1150. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0977. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $108.00 and then at $110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $102.83 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean market bulls are in firm overall technical control at elevated prices, while wheat futures are neutral. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on Thursday is coming into clearer focus for grain traders. That’s one of the most important USDA reports of the year for the grain markets. Look for very active trading in the aftermath of that report, and likely more subdued trading today and Wednesday, heading into that report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff