Friday, November 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. Asian stock indexes were mixed. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. While the U.S. stock index bulls have had a good week, the bears still possess the overall near-term technical advantage.
All marketplace eyes are now on the Group of 20 meetings that begin Friday in Buenos Aires, Argentina and will feature a face-to-face meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday. The world’s two largest economies are locked in a heated trade war. Come Monday morning, many markets could be very active at their openings, given the keen uncertainty on the outcome of the U.S.-China meeting on trade.
In overnight news, the Euro zone jobless rate was unchanged in October, at 8.1%. Meantime, consumer prices in the bloc rose 2.0% in November, on an annual basis, versus up 2.2% in October. It appears that just recently inflation worries worldwide have ebbed a bit, what with the big drop in crude oil prices.
The key outside markets today find Nymex crude oil futures prices lower and trading just below $51.00 a barrel. A key OPEC oil cartel meeting is scheduled for next week in Vienna, Austria.
The other key outside market today finds the U.S. dollar index trading firmer and near the recent highs.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the ISM Chicago business survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from strong gains scored this week. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,759.75 and then at 2,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Thursday’s low of 2,728.75 and then at 2,700.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today, on a downside correction from this week’s strong gains. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 6,973.00 and then at 7,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 6,874.00 and then at 6,850.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading today and poised to close at a bullish weekly and monthly high close today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 140 4/32 and then at 140 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 139 17/32 and then at 139 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading today and poised to close at a bullish weekly and monthly high close today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 119.20.0 and then at 119.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.11.5 and then at Thursday’s low of 119.03.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the November high of 96.930 and then at 97.500. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 96.000 and then at 95.690. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are lower today and not far below this week’s 13-month low of $49.41. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. There are no early clues that a market bottom is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $52.56 and then at $53.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $49.41 and then at $49.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices are set to open firmer today. Traders are awaiting the weekend meeting between the U.S. and China on trade. Look for very active trading in the grains Monday morning, in reaction to what happens on the trade front over the weekend. The grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff