Wednesday, April 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stocks markets were mixed to firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Focus of equities traders is on corporate earnings reports.
On tap today in the U.S. is another inflation report, the producer price index for March. PPI is expected to come in hot, at up 1.1% from February.
In overnight news, the International Energy Agency cut global oil demand in 2022 by 260,000 barrels per day, to 99.4 million barrels per day, mostly due to raging Covid in China.
Meantime, China reported its March exports were up 14.7%, year-on-year, while its imports were down 0.1%. Exports were in line with market expectations but imports were forecast to rise 8.0%. The weakening import pace is also likely due to major Covid lockdowns in China’s cities.
Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher today and trading around $102.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today and hit another two-year high overnight. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.76%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 4,466.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,491.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,375.50 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,382.00 and then at 14,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,881.25 and then at 13,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and close to this week’s contract low. Bears are in strong technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 143 8/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 141 6/32 and then at 141 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are in strong near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.26.0 and then at 121.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.31.0 and then at 119.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are weaker and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.0930 and then at this week’s high of 1.0959. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0835 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $103.00 and then at $104.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $99.87 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were mostly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on corrective pullbacks from recent good gains. Higher crude oil prices this week have boosted the grains. Corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have also gained the technical edge. Focus is on U.S. weather patterns as corn and soybean planting season is not far off. A wetter early season for corn planting is bullish for corn and may become bearish for soybeans, due to farmers possibly switching intended corn acres to soybeans.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff