Thursday, January 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is not robust late this week, but neither is risk aversion.
The U.S. gets another key inflation report today. The December producer price index is expected to come in at up 0.4% from November and follows a rise of 0.8% in the November report. The consumer price index report that was out Wednesday ran hot, showing an annual rise of 7.0%.
Traders will also be monitoring Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard’s comments as she appears today before a Senate committee regarding her nomination for vice chair of the Federal Reserve.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices near steady and trading around $82.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker again and hit another two-month low early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently yielding 1.75%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday’s low of 4,627.25 and then at 4,600.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at this week’s high of 4,739.50 and then at 4,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,009.25 and then at 16,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 15,762.50 and then at 15,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for five weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 even and then at 156 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 155 9/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 128.22.5 and then at 128.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 128.08.0 and then at contract low of 127.30.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid recent sideways trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1500 and then at 1.1550. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1449 and then at 1.1400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are near last fall’s seven-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $82.94 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at $81.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but wheat prices are trending lower on the daily bar charts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff