Tuesday, March 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. and European banking crisis appears to have stabilized, at least for now. That’s allowing risk appetite to creep back into the marketplace.
It’s a busy week for U.S. economic data, but the highlight is Friday’s personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) data that will provide fresh clues on inflation and whether the U.S. economy is headed toward recession. It’s been said the PCE data is a favorite gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly up and trading around $73.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.558%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, advance economic indicators, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic home price index, the Richmond Fed business survey, the consumer confidence index and industrial production and capacity utilization.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,073.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 3,937.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,897.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 12,984.50 and then at the March high of 13,082.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,678.00 and then at last week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 131 even and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 8/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.07.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 114.18.0 and then at 114.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0797 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace and the recent solid rebound in crude oil prices are bullish for the grains. Soybean market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls are now working on a price uptrend and have momentum. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls are working on a price uptrend.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff