Monday, June 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is a bit keener to start the trading week, amid easing Covid restrictions in China.
Two key data points of the week are the European Central Bank’s regular monetary policy meeting Thursday, at which the central bank is expected to lay out plans for tightening its monetary policy. On Friday the U.S. consumer price index report for May is set for release. The CPI is expected to be up 8.2%, year-on-year, after a rise of 8.3% in April.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $119.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.964%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and the global services purchasing managers’ index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,204.75 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,107.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,074.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 12,973.75 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 12,487.00 and then at 12,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 139 even and then at 140 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 137 13/32 and then at 137 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 119.00.0 and then at 119.16.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 118.11.5 and then at 118.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0816 and then at last week’s high of 1.0853. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at last week’s low of 1.0693. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $120.99 and then at $122.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $117.50 and then at $115.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Short covering and perceived bargain hunting are featured. Still, seasonal studies suggest grain prices during June will grind sideways at best. Then, after the Fourth of July U.S. holiday, prices may pivot, depending on the weather. More years than not there is some degree of a weather scare in the grain markets. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff