Thursday, March 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war and its widespread market implications continues on the front burner. President Biden Thursday meets with NATO and EU leaders to discuss the war. The two-day summit will be held at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
There are some reports surfacing that Russian President Putin’s war is producing cracks in the Kremlin. The reports said the Russian central bank chief quit and has left the country, while another official wanted to resign but Putin would not allow it.
Reports said Russia’s stock market has partially reopened and was trading higher, but foreigners have been banned from selling.
The other element impacting the marketplace is inflation, which has intensified because of the war. Global bond market yields have been rising sharply recently, with U.S. Treasury yields nearing three-year highs. The U.S. 2-year and 10-year yield curve is very close to inverting, which would begin to suggest a U.S. economic recession.
The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $115.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.37%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, durable goods orders, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services PMIs, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,514.00 and then at 4,550.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,415.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,690.75 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,183.75 and then at 14,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 150 even and then at 151 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 147 21/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.10.0 and then at 123.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 122.12.0 and then at 122.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1104 and then at last week’s high of 1.1172. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0994 and then at last week’s low of 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $116.64 and then at $118.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $110.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of $108.38. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean market bulls remain in firm overall technical control at elevated prices, while wheat futures are slightly bullish. Geopolitics remains the main driver of the grains and that suggests volatility continuing to be elevated for at least the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on March 31 is coming into view for grain traders.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff