Monday, May 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. Some European markets were closed for a holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls had a good week last week, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes on Friday closing at technically bullish weekly and monthly high closes.
It’s a very busy data week for traders and investors, including the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC is expected to raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.25%. The European Central Bank also meets Thursday. The ECB is also expected to raise its main interest rate by a quarter-point. Also, on Friday comes the U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. Corporate earnings reports continue to flow out this week, including Apple’s results.
In weekend/overnight news, the U.S. government took over the troubled First Republic Bank and then sold it to JP Morgan. First Republic’s demise is the second-largest U.S. bank failure ever.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $75.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.462%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing and construction spending.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the February high of 4,244.00 and then at 4,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,150.00 and then at Friday’s low of 4,131.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting an eight-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,150.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 132 4/32 and then at last week’s high of 132 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.17.5 and then at last week’s high of 115.30.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at Friday’s low of 114.17.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at 1.0947. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $76.82 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $73.93 and then at $72.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain bearish. Generally good corn and soybean planting weather so far is bearish for the grains. Growing U.S. and/or global recession fears are also keeping the grain market bulls timid at present.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff