Monday, June 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian stock markets were mixed overnight and European stock indexes were mostly firmer. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. It may be a quieter trading day Monday, just ahead of an important batch of economic data released this week.
The U.S. data point of the week is the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, which begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. A majority of the marketplace still thinks the Fed will pause in its interest-rate-tightening cycle. However, a stronger U.S. jobs report last Friday has bolstered those outliers who are thinking the Fed will make another rate hike this week.
Other important U.S. economic reports out this week include the consumer and producer price index reports for May on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The CPI is forecast up 4.0%, year-on-year, while the PPI is seen down 0.1%, month-on-month.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $68.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.743%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the monthly Treasury budget statement.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and near a 10-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,369.50 and then at 4,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,305.75 and then at 4,269.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage as prices are near a 10-month high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 14,869.50 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,425.00 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 128 even and then at 128 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 3/32 and then at 126 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 113.23.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 113.06.5 and then at the May low of 112.29.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0848 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0756 and then at the May low of 1.0702. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at Friday’s high of $71.77. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.67 and then at the June low of $67.03. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mostly higher overnight. Corn market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field, while wheat and soybean markets are bearish. Weather in the Corn Belt leans slightly bullish for the grain markets, as it is dry in some regions. Don’t be surprised if some degree of a weather market scare pops up in the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff