Monday, December 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. There continues to be a general “risk-on” trading attitude in the world marketplace that is boosting equity markets.
It’s a big week for economic events, as monetary policy meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and Bank of England take place this week.
The focus of many market watchers early this week is the launch Sunday evening of bitcoin futures on the U.S. Cboe exchange. Reports said initial trading saw high volatility with circuit breakers kicking in to try to reduce volatility. Some trading interruptions occurred due to heavy participation, reports said. The CME Group introduces its bitcoin futures trading next week.
The key “outside markets” Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher weaker on a corrective pullback from recent good gains. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly lower. The price uptrend in crude oil has stalled out, which suggests a near-term market top is in place.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no strong, early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,667.25 and then at 2,675.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Friday’s low of 2,640.25 and then at last week’s low of 2,622.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 6,398.00 and then at 6,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 6,339.00 and then at 6,325.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 153 16/32 and then at 154 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 152 28/32 and then at 152 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 124.15.5 and then at 124.20.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.08.0 and then at 124.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from last week’s gains. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 93.700 and then at 94.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 93.250 and then at 93.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the price uptrend has stalled, to suggest a market top is in place. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $57.79 and then at 58.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $56.54 and then at $56.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were lower overnight. Corn and wheat market bears remain in firm technical control. Soybean bulls have lost their slight chart edge. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report.