Monday, March 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Global bond market yields have down-ticked a bit to start the trading week, which has given some buoyancy to the stock markets that got hit last week when the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield moved above 1.6% to a one-year high. The U.S. 10-year on Monday is currently fetching 1.445%.
President Biden’s $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus bill was passed by the House of Representatives on Saturday and now moves to the Senate. With some unemployment support measures running out in two weeks, the focus for lawmakers is on getting the bill passed through the Senate and ready for Biden’s signature as quickly as possible.
In overnight news, the Euro zone February manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 57.9 versus 54.8 in January. Meantime, China’s private survey Caixin PMI came in at 50.9 in February from 51.5 in January. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector. U.S. PMI numbers are out this morning.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $62.25 a barrel. There is an OPEC meeting on Thursday that the marketplace will closely monitor. The U.S. dollar index is a bit higher early today.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index, the ISM business report on manufacturing, construction spending and the global manufacturing purchasing managers index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices higher and rebounding from a three-week low hit Friday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,846.75 and then at 3,875.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,775.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week low last Friday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,120.75 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,945.00 and then at 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract low last week. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 160 26/32 and then at 161 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 159 6/32 and then at 159 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.16.5 and then at 133.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.00.0 and then at 132.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading on more profit taking after hitting a six-week high late last week. Bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2125 and then at 1.2150. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2058 and then at 1.2025. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $63.81 and then at $64.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $61.34 and then at $61.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff