Tuesday, March 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The Dow and the S&P 500 are trading at record highs.
It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data released Tuesday, including the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, and manufacturing and trade inventories. But the highlight of this busy day will be retail sales, seen coming in at down 0.5% in February, likely due to inclement weather conditions during the month.
The Federal Reserve’s two-day Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and new U.S. economic projections. While no change in U.S. monetary policy is expected at this week’s meeting, traders will be closely scrutinizing wording on the Fed’s economic growth and inflation prospects.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices lower and trading around $64.40 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is just a bit higher early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.603%.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit another contract high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,975.00 and then at 4,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 3,913.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,168.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,048.25 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 24/32 and then at 157 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 155 31/32 and then at the contract low of 155 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.04.5 and then at 132.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 131.23.0 and then at 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2000 and then at last week’s high of 1.2014. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.1934 and then at 1.1900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading on profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at the overnight high of $65.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $64.00 and then at $63.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are mixed to lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Trading has been choppy and it could be that markets remain that way up until the very important March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff