Monday, August 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. News that China cut a key tax rate and pledged to shore up its capital markets boosted trader and investor attitudes in Asia.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.235%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey. The data pace picks up rapidly on Tuesday and it’s a big data week, including the employment situation report on Friday.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,534.50 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at the August low of 4,397.75 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,350.00 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,907.75 and then at the August low of 14,792.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 120 27/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 119 12/32 and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.03.0 and then at last week’s high of 110.14.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Friday’s low of 109.18.5 and then at the contract low of 108.09.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting a 2.5-month Friday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0900 and then at 1.0936. Shorter-term support is seen at the August low of 1.0827 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $81.00 and then at $81.75. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at last week’s low of $77.59. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest leans slightly bullish for corn and soybean prices. Much of the corn and soybean crops need rain to finish out their growing seasons. On tap today are the weekly USDA export inspections and crop progress reports.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff