Tuesday, November 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $75.75 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting takes place this week. Reports say there have been cartel member disagreements on whether to further cut collective crude oil production. However, now the consensus is that at this meeting OPEC will announce another cut in its overall production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.4%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the quarterly and monthly house price indexes, the S&P Core Logic home price indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November high of 4,629.75 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,569.25 and then at 4,550.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 16,372.00 and then at the July high of 16,406.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,000.00 and then at 15,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 116 18/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at 115 even and then at the overnight low of 114 17/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the November high of 109.21.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 108.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the November high of 1.1020 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0941 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $76.73 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.79 and then at the November low of $72.37. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Technicals remain overall solidly bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets are close to putting in price bottoms. Technicals are just slightly bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have stalled out.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff