Friday, April 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. Congress has just passed another nearly $500 billion aid package for U.S. businesses damaged by the Covid-19 pandemic. This week the total number of unemployed Americans surpassed 25 million, based on weekly jobless claims reports.
In overnight news, Germany’s closely watched Ifo business sentiment index fell to a record low of 74.3 in April from 85.9 in March. German companies “have never been so pessimistic about the coming months,” said an Ifo official.
China’s central bank on Friday cut the rate charged on its targeted medium-term lending facility by 20 basis points, to 2.95%. The move was expected.
The other important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil futures a bit weaker and trading around $16.00 a barrel, following a strong two-day rally that appears to have stabilized the market. The U.S. dollar is index firmer and greenback bulls remain strong. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is trading around 0.6% this morning.
U.S. economic reports due for release Friday include the durable goods orders report and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a near-term uptrend on the daily chart but just barely and the bulls need to show more power soon to keep it alive. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 2,836.75 and then at last week’s high of 2,885.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 2,755.25 and then at this week’s low of 2,717.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily chart but the bulls need to show more power soon to keep it alive. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 8,786.50 and then at 8,900.00. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 8,498.25 and then at 8,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 182 11/32 and then at this week’s high of 183 2/32. Shorter-term support lies at 181 even and then at this week’s low of 180 1/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.07.5 and then at 139.17.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 138.26.5 and then at 138.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 100.815 and then at the April high of 101.030. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 100.575 and then at 100.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 18-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $18.00 and then at $19.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $15.64 and then at $15.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
US grain futures are mixed in early US pre-market trading. Rumors late this week of upcoming large Chinese purchases of U.S. grains gave prices a lift. However, today’s trading will be extra important for corn and soybeans, to determine if follow-through buying can occur, to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place, or if not, then suggest this week’s gains were just corrective bounces in bear markets for corn and soybeans.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff