Thursday, June 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Focus late this week is on central banks. Norway’s central bank raised its main interest rate by 0.5% Thursday. The Bank of England met today on its monetary policy and raise its main interest rate by 0.5%, which surprised many, who expected a 0.25% hike. Meantime, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give testimony to a U.S. Senate committee today, following his remarks to a House committee on Wednesday. Powell on Wednesday leaned hawkish but generally repeated comments from his post-FOMC meeting press conference in mid-June. He reiterated the Fed is not happy with inflation levels that are presently well above the central bank’s 2% annual target area. Powell also said two more interest rate increases this year are probable but did not specify the timing.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $71.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.758%.
U.S. economic due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, existing home sales, leading economic indicators, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,462.00 and then at the June high of 4,485.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,375.00 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,322.50 and then at the June high of 15,475.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,850.00 and then at 14,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 11/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 127 even and then at this week’s low of 126 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.17.0 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.23.0 and then at the June low of 112.12.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are firmer and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1100 and then at 1.1150. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0943. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $72.72 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $69.76 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were lower overnight on corrective pullbacks from this week’s strong gains. Extended weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are still bullish, calling for mostly dry conditions. A failing Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal is also bullish, especially for wheat. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls all have the firm near-term technical advantage in this weather market. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff