Thursday, November 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, China’s consumer and producer inflation slipped into deflationary territory last month, heightening expectations the world’s second-largest economy needs more government stimulus. China’s October consumer price index fell 0.2%, year-on-year, while the producer price index was down 2.6% in the same period. Food prices fell 4.0% in October, led by a 30% drop in pork prices. Pork is a main consumer staple in China.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher and trading around $75.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.533%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the October high of 4,430.50 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,364.25 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,325.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the October high of 15,468.75 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,138.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 115 12/32 and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at 113 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 112 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.17.0 and then at last week’s high of 108.25.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.18.0 and then at 107.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0774 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0633 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up after hitting a 3.5-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $77.00 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $74.91 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading. Traders are awaiting this morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report and weekly USDA export sales report. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff