Thursday, September 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Global shares saw some price pressure Thursday due in part to worries about an economic slowdown in China, the world’s second-largest economy. Reports coming out of China say giant property developer China Evergrande Group has serious debt problems that could be just the tip of the iceberg for China’s housing sector that plays a big role in China’s economic growth.
It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data, highlighted by the retail sales report for August, seen down 0.8% from July after a 1.1% drop seen in the July report. Retail sales the last few weeks have taken a hit due to the Covid variant that is still impacting much of the U.S.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $72.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.307%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, manufacturing and trade inventories and Treasury international capital data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a longer-term uptrend on the charts. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,483.50 and then at 4,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,425.25 and then at 4,400.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,557.50 and then at the contract high of 15,702.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,307.75 and then at 15,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 164 24/32 and then at 165 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 163 17/32 and then at 163 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 133.23.0 and then at the September high of 133.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.08.5 and then at this week’s low of 133.02.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1800 and then at the overnight high of 1.1841. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1775 and then at 1.1750. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on a mild pullback after hitting a six-week high on Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.14 and then at $73.52. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were mixed overnight. Bulls are having a good week. If the grain markets can show more price strength to end this week, such would suggest that “harvest lows” have come early this year. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff