Monday, March 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed mixed openings when the New York day session begins, following solid gains and technically bullish weekly high closes posted last Friday.
The U.S. data points of the week will be Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony on U.S. monetary policy to Senate and House committees on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then comes the February U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 225,000 jobs, following a mammoth rise of 517,000 in the January report.
In overnight news, China set a 5% target for its economic growth in 2023, which is the lowest forecast in over 25 years.
The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are down and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.991%–down a bit after pushing above 4.0% last week.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,130.00 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,010.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. A four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,509.75 and then at 12,650.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 12,148.00 and then at last week’s low of 11,964.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a three-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 126 even and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 124 25/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a three-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 111.16.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.01.5 and then at 110.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0758 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0634 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy and sideways trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $80.78. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last Friday’s low of $75.83 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were lower overnight on news of disappointing economic growth projections out of China. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage. The data point of the week for the grain futures markets is the monthly USDA supply and demand report on Wednesday morning.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff